Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Fantasy Trading Philosophies

We've all seen it, some lopsided deal where someone moves a hot JULIO LUGO for a struggling ERIC CHAVEZ...and you think to yourself 'damn it, I wish I had made an offer.' So you put your thinking cap on and do just that, you start making offers. But to your surprise you get a series of nasty replies saying things like 'do you think I'm crazy' or 'why in the hell would I do that.' What gives?

The truth of the matter is people value players differently, and therein lies the problem. Some people play the hot hand, others pounce and try to buy the guy who is struggling so bad that his own mother may not let him in her house. My thoughts...

Buy LOW sell high. Dont go out and try to shoot for the moon and trade for BRIAN ROBERTS right now. Roberts is hitting .421 (2nd in the AL), 6 HR (2nd), 17 RBI (2nd), and dont fall off your seat, but he is leading the AL in OBP, SLG% and OPS!!!
(.516, .849, 1.365...numbers that wouldn't look out of place with Barry Bonds)

But is this 5 foot 9 sparkplug suddenly going to move from career highs of 5 HR and 53 RBI to 25 HR 100 RBI guy in the leadoff spot? Of course not, but he is on pace right now to blow away those numbers.

So here is where you pounce...I know this might sound crazy to some of you, but I would TRADE him right now. No ones value will ever be higher, and even is he finishes the year with a .300-18-75 line, that means he's only gonna hit .280-12-58 the rest of the year. Why not try an trade for ALFONSO SORIANO? Do you think he will go .280-12-58 the rest of the year? You bet your A.. he will.

I'd even recommend the same tactics with JEFF KENT who is also smoking hot (.353-4-13 with 17 runs). If Kent averages .290-25-100, numbers he's had for the last hundred or so years, that means he's a .280-21-87 guy the rest of the year. Why not trade him for Soriano? Heck, BRETT BOONE will probably produce those numbers the rest of the year.

So think about trading a guy who is on fire right now for someone you know will be there in the end, I bet the strategy works our for you when all is said and done.

14 Comments:

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i know you are right, but it's so hard to let that hot bat go!

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