Thursday, March 10, 2005

2004 COMPONENT ERA Leaders (ERC)

2004 ERC LEADERS
(Based on 162 IP)


R. Johnson, Ari 1.83
J. Santana, Min 2.07
B. Sheets, Mil 2.37
J. Schmidt, SF 2.37
R. Clemens, Hou 2.73
C. Schilling, Bos 2.76
O. Perez, Pit 2.99
C. Pavano, Fla 3.10
J. Peavy, SD 3.19
J. Wright, Atl 3.21
C. Zambrano, ChC 3.21
D. Wells, SD 3.24
O. Perez, LA 3.26
C. Carpenter, StL 3.32
B. Radke, Min 3.36
F. Garcia, CWS/Sea 3.37
T. Glavine, NYM 3.43
P. Martinez, Bos 3.44
T. Hudson, Oak 3.45
R. Oswalt, Hou 3.46
J. Westbrook, Cle 3.46
D. Davis, Mil 3.49
L. Hernandez, Mon 3.52
R. Harden, Oak 3.58
K. Escobar, Ana 3.65
B. Arroyo, Bos 3.66
A. Leiter, NYM 3.69
K. Benson, NYM/Pit 3.72
M. Clement, ChC 3.78
J. Weaver, LA 3.79
B. Tomko, SF 3.82
T. Lilly, Tor 3.85
G. Maddux, ChC 3.87
C. Sabathia, Cle 3.91
J. Bonderman, Det 3.93
W. Williams, StL 3.99
M. Buehrle, CWS 4.00
J. Thomson, Atl 4.01
A. Eaton, SD 4.11
J. Lima, LA 4.19
D. Willis, Fla 4.21
J. Vazquez, NYY 4.23
J. Lieber, NYY 4.27
M. Mulder, Oak 4.28
M. Morris, StL 4.30
C. Lidle, Cin/Phi 4.32
B. Webb, Ari 4.32
S. Trachsel, NYM 4.32
R. Drese, Tex 4.33
J. Suppan, StL 4.38
J. Lackey, Ana 4.40
B. Zito, Oak 4.45
K. Ishii, LA 4.47
M. Hendrickson, TB 4.51
B. Lawrence, SD 4.53
P. Wilson, Cin 4.54
J. Garland, CWS 4.56
M. Maroth, Det 4.57
E. Milton, Phi 4.57
J. Fogg, Pit 4.59
J. Johnson, Det 4.60
R. Ortiz, Atl 4.61
B. Colon, Ana 4.65
N. Robertson, Det 4.66
J. Marquis, StL 4.70
T. Wakefield, Bos 4.74
M. Hampton, Atl 4.76
M. Batista, Tor 4.85
C. Silva, Min 4.89
K. Rueter, SF 4.99
K. Rogers, Tex 5.00
J. Contreras, CWS/NYY 5.06
R. Franklin, Sea 5.08
J. Moyer, Sea 5.13
B. Myers, Phi 5.17
M. Redman, Oak 5.23
C. Lee, Cle 5.31
D. Lowe, Bos 5.33
S. Ponson, Bal 5.34
I. Valdez, SD/Fla 5.38
S. Estes, Col 5.86
K. Lohse, Min 5.89
D. May, KC 5.94
J. Jennings, Col 5.99
B. Anderson, KC 6.36

In order to come up with ERC, a two-part equation is necessary.

A)
PTB = 0.89 x [(1.255 x (H-HR) + 4 x HR)] + 0.56 x (BB+HBP-IBB)
*PTB (Pitchers Total Base Estimate)

Let’s use Jason Schmidt’s 20004 season again. Here are his totals:
Hits HR BB IBB HBP BFP IP
165 18 77 3 3 907 225
*BFP = Batters Faced Pitchers (total batters against)

PTB = 0.89 x [1.255 x (165-18) + 4(18)] + 0.56 x (77+3-3)
PTB = 0.89 x [1.255 x (147)+72] + 0.56(77)
PTB = 0.89 x [184.485+72] + 43.12
PTB = 0.89 x [256.485] + 43.12
PTB = 228.272 + 43.12
PTB = 271.392

B)
ERC = [(H+BB+HBP) x PTB / (BFP x IP)] x 9 – 0.56

ERC = [(165+77+3) x 271.392 / (907 x 225)] x 9 – 0.56
ERC = [245 x 271.392 / 204075] x 9 – 0.56
ERC = [66491.04 / 204075] x 9 – 0.56
ERC = [.326] x 9 – 0.56
ERC = 2.934 – 0.56
ERC = 2.374

Therefore, Jason Schmidt’s ERC in 2004 was 2.37.

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