Wednesday, July 21, 2004

Ray's Notes

ray@drafthelp.com

Thanks for stopping by...

WORLD SERIES NOTES
Though it has been widely reported that the BoSox were the first team ever to win 8 playoof games in a row this is not quite true. They are the first team to win 8 in a row in ONE PLAYOFF YEAR. But according to work by two fellow SABR members, the record for most post season wins in a row is actually longer.

Norman Price reports that the Yankees, on two different occasions,swept successive World Series (or 8 wins in a row): The 1927-28 Yanks (over Pittsburgh and St Louis) and the 1938-39 Yanks (Cubs and Reds).

R. J. Lesch also added that the record for consecutive post season wins is 12 in a row, also accomplished by the Yankees. Here is what he found.
(1) The Yanks swept the World Series in 1927, 1928 and 1932.
(2) In the 1998 ALCS they won the last 3 games, followed by a sweep of the WS, then swept the 1999 ALDS, and were victorious in the first two games of the 1999 ALCS.

So what has been widely reported is only half the story...leave it to the SABR guys to get it right.


OCTOBER 5th
Sorry for the delay..I've been busy looking at purchasing homes and writing a bunch of season ending articles dealing with wrapping up the season, Cy Young Voting, MVP Voting, Barry Bonds, and Ichiro. that can be read at:
www.athomeplate.com
AND
http://www.drafthelp.com/BaseballMain.htm

With that, let's add some notes here:

~~~With 157 K this year in only 94.2 IP, BRAD LIDGE set an all-time record for most K by a reliever in NL history. His ratio of 14.93 K per 9 IP is the second best all-time for a single season for a pitcehr with over 75 IP. The list:

Eric Gagne ,2003 / 14.98
BRAD LIDGE, 2004/14.92
Armando Benitez ,1999/ 14.77
Rob Dibble , 1991 / 13.55
Randy Johnson , 2001 / 13.41
Pedro Martinez , 1999 / 13.20
Rob Dibble , 1989 / 12.82
Kerry Wood , 1998 / 12.58
Pedro Martinez , 2001 / 12.57
Randy Johnson , 2000 / 12.56

~~~Have you seen ESPN's Cy Young Predictor Page developed by ROB NEYER and BILL JAMES? If you haevn't you should take a look. According to their work, they predict the following results.

AL
1. JOHAN SANTANA- 203.8
2. MARIANO RIVERA- 196.3
3. CURT SCHILLING- 174.5

NL
1. ERIC GAGNE- 193.7
2. JASON ISRINGHAUSEN- 173.3
3. ROGER CLEMENS- 166.1

Personally I'm a bit skeptical of rankings that place relievers this high, especialluy IZZY, but according to the book written by Neyer and James called THE NEYER JAMES GUIDE TO PITCHERS, the system predicts the winner more than 80% of the time (p.468). So we'll see wont we.



More can be read about this analysis at: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy

SEPTEMBER 19th
(The following info was reported by Rotoworld.com on Sept. 19th)

"Aaron Rowand is hitting .336 with 18 doubles and 40 RBI since the All-Star break."

"Esteban Loaiza will start Tuesday against the Blue Jays. His mound opponent will be Blue Jays' ace Roy Halladay who, has been out of action with a shoulder injury and will make his first start in over a month."

"Alfonso Soriano had his strained left hamstring examined today by Dr. Lewis Yocum. It appears that Dr. Yocum agrees with the Rangers doctors' earlier diagnosis. Soriano will be out of action for at least one more week."

"Adrian Beltre broke Ron Cey's record for the most runs batted in by a Dodger third baseman in a season.Beltre now has 111 for the campaign."

"Freddy Garcia is undefeated (8-0) in nine day starts this season."

"Mark Redman is 8-6 with a 2.88 ERA in 16 starts on the road. At home, he is 3-6 with a 7.81 ERA in 14 starts."

"Johan Santana struck out a career-high 14 batters and won his 12th straight decision this afternoon. We have run out of superlatives to describe Santana. He leads the AL, in strikeouts with 254 and has a league low 2.65 ERA."



SEPTEMBER 15th
Every baseball fan as a kid loves to wear his home teams jersey with his favoire player on the back (heck some of us still wear jerseys as adults!) We thought you might like to read a story detailing the development of players wearing numbers on their jerseys.

http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/exhibits/online_exhibits/dressed_to_the_nines/timeline_1929.htm

The link below attests to the fact that while the Yankees are often credited with "inventing" player jerseys with numbers, it was actually the 1916 Indians.
http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/exhibits/online_exhibits/dressed_to_the_nines/timeline_1916c.htm

SEPTEMBER 9th

~CRAIG MONROE...
Has anyone noticed how well this man is hitting? Well if you need some pop as the fantasy season winds down, see if he is still on the waiver wire. He has hit 8 HR in the past 11 games, with hits in 22 of 23 games and 28 RBI over those 23 games.
In August he hit: .333, 8, 21 with a 1.166 OPS.
In Sept. he has hit: .476, 4,9 with a 1.595 OPS.
Seriously...


~What about JOE RANDA? Aided by his 6 hit 6 run game today he's 15 for 27, a .556 average, with 11 runs in 6 games during September. In fact, in his last 34 games he is hitting .336.

~ARMANDO BENITEZ has 11 saves against the METS!!! (Yes that's an all-time record vs. one team). 13.1 IP, 1 ER, 12 K, 0.68 ERA, 0.30 WHIP, .091 BAA. Damn...

~GIOVANNI CARRARRA had an impressive August. In 20.2 IP he allowed 24 baserunners (1.16 WIHIP) with a 0.44 ERA and 19 K. Do the Dodgers really miss GUILLERMO MOTA?

~JC ROMERO...he's nothing but a middle reliever right? True, but look a little closer at his stats. He hasn't allowed a run since June 7th...thats 34.2 IP without a run!!!

~And the sad case of HANK BLALOCK...from the next George Brett to the next...Mike Lowell? Since the break Blalock has been downright horrible hitting .197 with a .667 OPS in 178 at bats (that's after hitting .303 with a .941 OPS pre all-star break).

SEPTEMBER 5th

ICHIRO, Ichiro, Ichiro...sure his hit total will probably be one of the top 10 of all-time, and while that does deserve some attention, it important to remember just what it doesn't mean.
According to my fellow SABR members, the following points are true.
1- Ichiro has a RunsCreated Score of 8.5, meaning that a team made of 9 Ichiro's would score 8.5 Runs per game. A team of 9 BONDS you ask? Try 23!!!

2- Ichiro has made over 90% MORE outs than Bonds this year despite hitting for a higher average.

3- Bonds has roughly 150% MORE extra base hits than Ichiro.

4- Bonds secondary average, which measures hits other than singles, is 300% higher than Ichiro's.

5- These above stats mean that a team of 9 Bonds would beat a team of 9 Ichiro's 85% of the time.

Dont forget this the next time someone says that Ichiro is the best ever or something to that effect.


AUGUST 27th

~ This year poor JEFF BAGWELL, with that damn busted up shoulder of his, has only been able to hit 18 HR in 433 at bats. On the other hand CARLOS BELTRAN has 17 HR for the Astros this year...but he has produced those HR in only 202 at bats!

(Special thanks to my brother, Jeff Flowers, who brought this to my attention)


~ From April 1 2003 through August 4th 2004, here are CURT SCHILLING pitching stats:
3 or 4 days rest/ 7-11, 196 IP, 3.80 ERA
5+ days rest/ 12-3, 111 IP, 2.18

(Matt Olkin of Sports Weekly)


~ BRANDON WEBB is on pace to become only the 2nd pitcher ever to finish a season with; (A) an ERA under 4.00, (B) A walks per 9IP ratio above 5, and (C) a winning % under .300.
Webb is 5-14 (.263), with a 3.70 ERA and a walk ratio of 5.23 per 9 IP.

The only pitcher to accomplish this feat? RUSS CHRISTOPHER who for teh A's in 1942 went 4-13 with a 3.82 ERA and a 5.40 BB/9 IP ratio.

(Mark Camps, SF Chronicle)

~ Because of his tremendous 2nd half hot streak, ADRIAN BELTRE is on pace to become just the 3rd 3B of all-time to finish a season with a .325 average, 40 HR and 100 RBI. Here are his 2nd half stats: .377, 18, 38, in 151 at bats with a 1.226 OPS over 39 games.

The other two players to do this? Al Rosen (.336,43,135 in 1953) and Ken Caminiti (.326,40, 130 in 1996) ...and co-incidentally, both men won the MVP.

(Rotoworld August 26th, 2004)




AUGUST 22
HAPPY ANNIVERSARY MOM AND DAD

~ We have written a series of articles on relief pitchers, our most recent and possibly most controversial dealing with who the best NL closer is and it ISNT Eric Gagne (http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Flowers_BestNLCloser.htm). The man we tabbed was Danny Kolb and most often when we here replies from readers we hear something to the effect of ‘there’s no way he’ll be good for the long haul, he just doesn’t strike out enough guys.’ K or not, you can still be successful as a closer. Ever heard of Dan Quisenberry???

Over 6 years, 1980-1985, here are his stats.
41-33
212 SV
724.2 IP
246 K
OR
3.06 per 9 IP

Whereas KOLB is:
6-11
56 SV
156 IP
107 K
OR
6.17 per 9 IP

Here are the top 25 all-time save guys before the 2004 season.
SV / SO per 9 IP
1 Lee Smith 478 / 8.73
2 John Franco 424 / 7.01
3 Dennis Eckersley 390 / 6.58
4 Jeff Reardon 367 / 6.97
5 Trevor Hoffman 352 / 10.24
6 Randy Myers 347 / 8.99
7 Rollie Fingers 341 / 6.87
8 John Wetteland 330 / 9.46
9 Roberto Hernandez 320 / 8.20
10 Rick Aguilera 318 / 7.18
11 Robb Nen 314 / 9.98
12 Tom Henke 311 / 9.81
13 Goose Gossage 310 / 7.47
14 Jeff Montgomery 304 / 7.59
15 Doug Jones 303 / 7.25
16 Bruce Sutter 300 / 7.43
17 Rod Beck 286 / 7.61
T18 Mariano Rivera 283 / 8.06
T18 Troy Percival 283 / 10.84
20 Todd Worrell 256 / 8.15
21 Dave Righetti 252 / 7.13
22 Jose Mesa 249 / 6.20
23 Dan Quisenberry 244 / 3.27
24 Sparky Lyle 238 / 5.65
25 Hoyt Wilhelm 227 / 6.43

So while KOLB does lag a bit behind, its not really that bad. Nor is it really that important how many you K, cause an out is an out. And before you say something else…guys like Maddux and Glaving don’t strike many guys out and they have over 550 wins…its about pitching not K’s.


~~ For those of you who missed it ex-Giant JOE NATHAN recently lost his scoreless streak the other night afer 28 games without giving up a run of any kind (earned or unearned). For comparison Gagne's longest streak this year is also 28. Nathan has only given up a run in 3 games this season (out of 54) while Gagne has given up a run in 11 appearances (out of 54 games). Overall Nathan is 1-1 with 34 Sv, a 1.30 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a .190 BAA. The man is flat out dealing...our poor Giants...if they had only known.


AUGUST 13TH
FOR THOSE OF YOU INTERESTED IN THE RECENT 300 GAME WINNER DEBATE, SEE OUR ARTICLE AT:
http://www.athomeplate.com/ray300wins.shtml

AUGUST 12th
Edgar Martinez announced his retirement at the end of the 2004 season. Accoridng to Lee Sinnis, Martinez ranks 12th in career OBA vs. the league average (7500+ PA, since 1900)

OBA DIFF/ PLAYER/ LEAGUE
1 Ted Williams .134/ .482 /.348
2 Babe Ruth .118 /.474 /.356
3 Barry Bonds .103/ .439/ .336
4 Ty Cobb .093/ .433/ .340
5 Rogers Hornsby .091 /.434 /.342
6 Frank Thomas .089 /.429 /.339
7 Mickey Mantle .087 /.421 /.333
8 Lou Gehrig .086 /.447 /.361
9 Tris Speaker .084 /.428/ .344
10 Eddie Collins .082 /.424 /.342
11 Wade Boggs .082/ .415/ .333
12 Edgar Martinez .081 /.420/ .338
13 Stan Musial .079/ .417/ .338
14 Mel Ott .071/ .414 /.343
15 Jimmie Foxx .070 /.428/ .358

~ ICHIRO was AL Player of the Week. He went 16 for 31 (.516) with a .710 SLG%. In the Mariners last 21 games he has gone 50 for 100, for a .500 average!

~MELVIN MORA is hitting .500 in August (15 for 30) with 6 HR and 13 RBI. So much for another second half fade…Mora is hitting .365, 9,25 with a 1.195 OPS since the break (compared to last years .188,2,3, .592)

BAY AREA NEWS
~ Since coming off the DL on June 25th, JT SNOW is batting .361 (39 for 108) with 5 HR and 21 RBI.
~ RICH HARDEN is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his last 6 starts.
~ This just in… MATT HERGES isnt that good. He is 4-5 with a 5.65 ERA, and a 1.73 WHIP.
~ Keep an eye on JARIO GARICA (pronounce HI-row) who had burned up the minors this year. He pitched 30 innings at A, 18 at AA and 5 at AAA before pitching 2 scoreless innings for the A’s. His minor league numbers are astounding: 53 IP, 3-0, 0.67 ERA, 91 K, 19 Sv…that translates to a K rate of15.5 per 9 IP.




AUGUST 9th
~According to ESPN's Baseball Tonight...
here are the 5 active players with the greatest home/road Batting Average splits among active players.
(Home/Avg/Difference)
Helton .374/.297/.077
Walker .350/.279//071
McCracken .309/.250/.059
Varitek .294/.242/.052
Mayne .290/.240/.250

~ Here are Matt Clement's stats the past two months (June and July)...has this man been robbed or what?
2-7, 3.01 ERA, 82 K, 1.29 WHIP, .242 BA against in 77.2 IP.

Oh yeah, he's also 84th out of the 89 starting pictchers that qualify for the ERA title in Run Support @ 3.66

The other "winners":
89 Zach Day, 2.47
88 Ben Sheets, 3.23
87 Ryan Franklin, 3.28
86 Odalis Perez, 3.38
85 Kelvim Escobar 3.49


~Hank Blalock went from all-star stud, to all-star thud. His stats the last 2 months:
JUNE .367,9,24,.420 OBP, 1.099 OPS (109 AB)
JULY .190,3,17,.296 OBP,.626 OPS (100 AB)

What happend? In August he is still going down:
AUGUST .185,0,3,.200,.422 (27 AB)



AUGUST 2
~We must make a correction. In our previous RAYS NOTES of JULY 29th we made the claim that Ichiro was about to become the first man to have 3 seperate months in his career with 50 hits, but according to SABR member Trent McCotter, this is wrong. Mr. McCotter reported that Ty Cobb had 7 such months!

July 1908-51
July 1912-67
June 1917-51
July 1917-55
July 1918-50
May 1921-58
July 1922-67

Apprently ELIAS records, used by most mainstream sources, only go back until about 1950 with comprehensive effectiveness. Luckily the members of SABR are on the case!

~ Players of the month for JULY:
LoDuca, V.Martinez

1B
Pujols, Teixeira
2B
Reyes, M. Young
3B
Beltre, C. Guillen
SS
Matsui, Tejada
OF
Abreu, Damon
Edmonds, R. Winn
Burnitez, Ichiro
SP
Ru.Ortiz, Santana
Hampton, Lackey
Maddux, Garcia
Ol.Perez, Colon
RP
Smoltz, Nathan

(A story will be posted soon detailing their exploits...check back for the story).

JULY 29
~ Rotoworld.com claimed tonight that Scott Rolen finally had a down month in 2004. His stats in July: .302 with five home runs and 16 RBI in 22 games during July. Is that a down month???

~ Don't look now but the scariest NL lefty may no longer be Randy Johnson but Oliver Perez of the Pirates. WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING you say? Nothing. Compare their stats.
RJ is 10-8,2.68,174K in 151.1 IP, with a 0.89 WHIP
PEREZ is 6-5, 3.03, 143K in 119IP, with a 1.09 WHIP

Pretty darn close.

~ Ichiro needs 7 more hits in the last three games this month to become the first player EVER to have 3 seperate months with 50 hits. The other player with two such months...the hit king, Pete Rose.

~ Here are the players who have hit 50 HR in a season and what their AVG was in those seasons:
1 Barry Bonds 2001 (73) .328
2 Mark McGwire 1998 (70) .299
3 Sammy Sosa 1998 (66) .308
4 Mark McGwire 1999 (65) .278
5 Sammy Sosa 2001 (64) .328
6 Sammy Sosa 1999 (63) .288
7 Roger Maris 1961 (61) .269
8 Babe Ruth 1927 (60) .356
9 Babe Ruth 1921 (59) .378
T10 Jimmie Foxx 1932 (58) .364
T10 Hank Greenberg 1938 (58) .315
T10 Mark McGwire 1997 (58) .274
T13 Luis Gonzalez 2001 (57) .325
T13 Alex Rodriguez 2002 (57) .300
T15 Ken Griffey Jr. 1997 (56) .304
T15 Ken Griffey Jr. 1998 (56) .284
T15 Hack Wilson 1930 (56) .356
T18 Ralph Kiner 1949 (54) .310
T18 Babe Ruth 1920 (54) .376
T18 Mickey Mantle 1961 (54) .317
T18 Babe Ruth 1928 (54) .323
T22 George Foster 1977 (52) .320
T22 Mark McGwire 1996 (52) .312
T22 Mickey Mantle 1956 (52) .353
T22 Jim Thome 2002 (52) .304
T22 Alex Rodriguez 2001 (52) .318
T22 Willie Mays 1965 (52) .317
T28 Cecil Fielder 1990 (51) .277
T28 Ralph Kiner 1947 (51) .313
T28 Johnny Mize 1947 (51) .302
T28 Willie Mays 1955 (51) .319
T32 Brady Anderson 1996 (50) .297
T32 Jimmie Foxx 1938 (50) .349
T32 Albert Belle 1995 (50) .317
T32 Greg Vaughn 1998 (50) .272
T32 Sammy Sosa 2000 (50) .320



JULY 24
~ Royals' first baseman Mike Sweeney went 3-for-5 with a home run against the Indians Friday night and is now batting .407 with six home runs and 19 RBI in the 12 games since returning from his back injury (he is on pace for 31 HR an 117 RBI).

~ Johan Santana, JUNE/JULY Stats
6-3, 1.74 ERA, 77.2 IP, 0.67 WHIP (33 Hits, 19 BB), 101 K (11.8 per 9 IP), .094 batting average against.

~ Joe Nathan currently has a 19-inning scoreless streak. Nathan's ERA for the season is 1.01.

~How happy was Larry Walker tonight? Known as a superstious freak when it comes to the #3 (such as wearing the number 33), Walker went 3 for 3, with 3 runs and 3 RBI. This big night brought his season totals to 6 HR and 18 RBI (also two numbers divisible by three).

~ What the hell happened to Carlos Delgado? Injuries aside he is hitting .208, 11, 38 in 236 at bats. His OPS thus far is .702, over .300 points lower than his total last year 1.019 and .239 points below his career mark (.941). PATHETIC.

~ Former Cy Young winner Pat Hentgen retired Saturday at the age of 35. According to the Associated Press, Hentgen won the 1996 AL Cy Young Award, going 20-10 with a 3.22 ERA. The three-time All-Star spent 14 seasons in the majors, going 131-112 with a 4.32 ERA. He also pitched for St. Louis and Baltimore. According to ESPN's BASEBALL TONIGHT, Hentgen also has the highest Career ERA of any Cy Young winner at 4.32.

~ According to OUT OF THE BOX at ESPN (http://games.espn.go.com/cgi/flb/OutOfTheBox/index?gameDate=20040721 )
Carl Crawford is on pace to go 70/70 this year (SB and RBI). The last guy who even sniffed that feat was Kenny Lofton in 1996 when he went 75/67.

According to OUR research, here is the list of men who have accomplished 70 SB and 70 RBI in the same season since 1901:
SB/ RBI
Ty Cobb 1915, 96/ 99
Tim Raines 1983, 90/ 71
Clyde Milan 1912, 88/ 79
Rickey Henderson 1986, 87/ 74
Ty Cobb 1911, 83/ 127
Eddie Collins 1910, 81/ 81
Eric Davis 1986, 80/ 71
Rickey Henderson 1985, 80/ 72
Ty Cobb 1909, 76/ 107
Benny Kauff 1914, 75/ 95

AND
Juan Samuel just missed out in 1984 with 72 SB and 69 RBI.





JULY 21


I.) Who are the two players who have 3000 career...not hits...but singles?
ROSE 3215
COBB 3051

Figures right?

As for the greatest singles hitter deabte that can be read at :
http://forums.mlbcenter.com/index.php?

Amongst the top 50 all-time list of hitters (based on hits), Wee Willie had the highest average of singles at 85.7% (2512 of 2932). The next guy is Eddie Collins at 79.7 (2641 of 3312) and Jesse Burkett (2272 of 2850).


II.)In 1887 Tip Oniel produced the highest batting average EVER...did you know that?
Oniel's average in 1887 was .485 !!! Sure 1887 happened to be the only year that walks were counted as hits (see TOTAL BASEBALL, 8th Edition, p.2438), but it was still an amazing year. He not only won the Triple Crown (.485,14,123) but he also led the league in the following categories:
RUNS (167), HITS (275), 2B (52), 3B (14), OBP (.490), SLG (.691), OPS (1.1180).

III.)MATT HERGES troubles...

Besides being 2nd in the league in blown saves with 7 (to Danny Graves), Herges has been horrendous lately giving up 9 runs in his last 3 IP. ALOU has maintained that Herges is still the man, but in 2 of his last 3 appearances he has been forced to pull Herges…the writings on the wall.

Herges is really the 4th closer for the Giants….Nen (hurt), Worrell (free agent), Nathan (traded) and then Herges. So is it a surprise that he has struggled?

Herges has also allowed 17 of 28 INHERITED RUNNERS to score this year, meaning his 5.82 ERA could, and should, be even Higher!

On that note…you might want to keep an eye out for a future article that might be appearing on this site detailing closers abilities to keep inherited runners from scoring.

IV.) According to THE PITCHER by Thorn and HOLOWAY (p.45), MIKE KRUKOW, current Giants Broadcaster, once pitched a no-hitter in college for CAL-POLY, while walking 17 men!!!


Wednesday, July 14, 2004

CONTACT INFO

To contact Ray Flowers:

ray@drafthelp.com

CARLOS BELTRAN AND KAUFFMAN STADIUM

I recently wrote an article detailing whether or not the move from hitter friendly Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City would hurt new Astros Carlos Beltran’s statistics.
http://rototimes.com/index.php?sport=bsball&type=misc&name=F20040701165836

I also wrote an addendum to this piece (which is located BELOW) to answer a few questions that I received regarding the original work.

I would also recommend viewing fellow SABR member DAN FOX’s article on the topic of Kauffman Stadium at: http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2004/01/kauffman-park-effects.html.



MY ADDENDUM
OK, so I have gotten some replies about my Beltran article, and thanks to all of you for taking the time to write. Here is a response that I’ve written to speak to some people’s questions.

1. THE FENCES…Yes the fences were moved back this year, and yes it will have an effect on the way the park plays. That said I didn’t include in the overall discussion 2004 stadium stats because it’s really too early to know the full effect. Plus with only certain teams visiting Kauffman stadium thus far, it really isn’t safe to comment on the issue until the entire season has been played.

2. THE PARK…The way a park plays greatly effects the way the game is played and its results. YES the Royals pitching has been bad, and yes that effects how the park plays. But the data I presented is for BOTH teams in each park meaning that BOTH the home/away teams stats are reflected in the data (so they away stats would be equally effected by the Royals poor pitching).

Some more numbers for the 2002 and 2003 seasons:

HOUSTON- (includes the team they were playing against at each venue)

HOME games- .263, 304 HR, 1358 Runs
AWAY games- .251, 293HR, 1262 Runs
*** This means that there were 96 more runs scored in games at Houston versus games when they were the away team, and that both teams batted 12 points higher in Houston than when the Astros were the road team.


KANSAS CITY- (includes the team they were playing against at each venue)

HOME games- .284, 346 HR, 1645 Runs
AWAY games- .258, 281 HR, 1281 Runs
***This means that at games played in Kansas City, the Royals and the opposing team hit 26 points HIGHER, for 65 MORE HR and scored a whopping 364 MORE Runs than in games when the Royals were the road team.

Clearly Kauffman stadium has had a HUGE impact on offense versus when the Royals play on the road.

* For those of you who would like some documentation of that pick up THE BILL JAMES HANDBOOK 2004, where it lists just how each park performs in relation to others.

3. BELTRAN…I think some people have misunderstood my article a bit. I NEVER said that Beltran would be worse. My premise was that the move to Houston shouldn’t cause his numbers to go up solely because of the park change. Great players, an I assume Beltran is one, overcome whatever is thrown in front of them and I expect him to do just as well in Houston as he would have done if he had stayed in KC, but no any better.


Ray
Draftehlp.com
www.wildpitch.blogspot.com





Thursday, July 08, 2004

ISOLATED POWER (ISO)

Isolated Power [ISO]
A player's slugging average minus his batting average. Bill James provided its current name. Branch Rickey championed the stat, calling it "Power Average." A measure of a player's ability to hit for power considered apart from his ability to hit singles.

ISO= SLG - AVG

For an individual, ISO under .080 means he can be considered a singles hitter; ISO over .200 is very good power.


SEASON
MODERN (1900-)
ALL- TIME
CAREER


ISOLATED POWER
1 Babe Ruth .348
2 Mark McGwire .325
3 Barry Bonds .305
4 Lou Gehrig .292
5 Hank Greenberg .292
6 Ted Williams .289
7 Jimmie Foxx .284
8 Jim Thome .283
9 Manny Ramirez .281
10 Albert Pujols .279
11 Todd Helton .279
12 Carlos Delgado .275
13 Alex Rodriguez .273
14 Ralph Kiner .269
15 Albert Belle .269
16 Sammy Sosa .268
17 Ken Griffey Jr. .268
18 Juan Gonzalez .267
19 Vladimir Guerrero .265
20 Lance Berkman .262
21 Brian Giles .261
22 Mike Schmidt .260
23 Mickey Mantle .259
24 Frank Thomas .258
25 Willie Mays .256
26 Joe DiMaggio .254
27 Richie Sexson .254
28 Larry Walker .253
29 Harmon Killebrew .252
30 Mike Piazza .252
31 Johnny Mize .250
32 Hank Aaron .250
33 Jeff Bagwell .249
34 Jose Canseco .249
35 Jason Giambi .247
36 Willie Stargell .247
37 Darryl Strawberry .247
38 Willie McCovey .245
39 Russ Branyan .245
40 Duke Snider .244
41 Adam Dunn .243
42 Frank Robinson .243
43 Dave Kingman .242
44 Dick Allen .242
45 Ken Phelps .241
46 Jim Edmonds .240
47 Jay Buhner .240
48 Ryan Klesko .239
49 Troy Glaus .239
50 Eddie Mathews .238

ALL TIME
SINGLE SEASON

ISOLATED POWER YEAR
1 Barry Bonds 2001 .536
2 Babe Ruth 1920 .472
3 Babe Ruth 1921 .469
4 Mark McGwire 1998 .454
5 Barry Bonds 2002 .429
6 Mark McGwire 1996 .418
7 Mark McGwire 1999 .418
8 Babe Ruth 1927 .417
9 Sammy Sosa 2001 .409
10 Barry Bonds 2003 .408
11 Lou Gehrig 1927 .392
12 Babe Ruth 1928 .386
13 Jimmie Foxx 1932 .385
14 Barry Bonds 2000 .381
15 Frank Thomas 1994 .376
16 Albert Belle 1995 .374
17 Jim Thome 2002 .373
18 Babe Ruth 1930 .373
19 Mark McGwire 1997 .372
20 Babe Ruth 1923 .372
21 Mickey Mantle 1961 .370
22 Hank Greenberg 1938 .369
23 Hack Wilson 1930 .368
24 Babe Ruth 1926 .366
25 Luis Gonzalez 2001 .363
26 Babe Ruth 1924 .361
27 Jimmie Foxx 1938 .356
28 Larry Walker 1997 .354
29 Rogers Hornsby 1925 .353
30 Mickey Mantle 1956 .353
31 Babe Ruth 1929 .353
32 Roger Maris 1961 .351
33 Todd Helton 2001 .349
34 Ralph Kiner 1949 .348
35 Jimmie Foxx 1933 .347
36 Sammy Sosa 1999 .347
37 Willie Stargell 1973 .347
38 Manny Ramirez 2000 .346
39 Kevin Mitchell 1989 .344
40 Lou Gehrig 1934 .344
41 Jim Gentile 1961 .344
42 Ted Williams 1957 .343
43 Lou Gehrig 1930 .343
44 Jim Edmonds 2003 .342
45 Ken Griffey Jr. 1997 .342
46 Lou Gehrig 1936 .342
47 Hank Aaron 1971 .341
48 Barry Bonds 1993 .341
49 Brady Anderson 1996 .340
50 Willie Mays 1955 .340
51 Sammy Sosa 1998 .339
52 Mike Schmidt 1980 .338
53 Willie McCovey 1969 .336
54 Babe Ruth 1919 .336
55 Jimmie Foxx 1939 .334
56 Reggie Jackson 1969 .333
57 Jim Thome 2001 .333
58 Willie Stargell 1971 .333
59 Hank Greenberg 1937 .332
60 Larry Walker 1999 .331
61 Hank Greenberg 1940 .330
62 Manny Ramirez 1999 .330
63 Juan Gonzalez 1996 .329
64 Ted Williams 1941 .329
65 Mark McGwire 1987 .329
66 Willie Mays 1965 .328
67 Babe Ruth 1931 .328
68 Ken Griffey Jr. 1998 .327
69 Hank Greenberg 1946 .327
70 Joe DiMaggio 1937 .327
71 Albert Belle 1998 .327
72 Al Simmons 1930 .327
73 Todd Helton 2000 .326
74 Stan Musial 1948 .326
75 Ralph Kiner 1947 .326
76 Dave Kingman 1979 .325
77 Ted Williams 1946 .325
78 Ken Griffey Jr. 1996 .325
79 Eddie Mathews 1953 .325
80 Greg Vaughn 1998 .325
81 Brian Giles 2002 .324
82 Alex Rodriguez 2002 .324
83 Willie McCovey 1970 .323
84 Juan Gonzalez 1993 .323
85 Richard Hidalgo 2000 .323
86 Willie Mays 1954 .322
87 Lou Gehrig 1931 .321
88 Johnny Mize 1940 .321
89 Frank Robinson 1966 .321
90 Rogers Hornsby 1922 .321
91 Carlos Delgado 2000 .320
92 Troy Glaus 2000 .320
93 Duke Snider 1955 .320
94 Babe Ruth 1932 .319
95 Jimmie Foxx 1934 .319
96 Vladimir Guerrero 2000 .319
97 Ralph Kiner 1951 .318
98 Ralph Kiner 1950 .318
99 Harmon Killebrew 1961 .318
100 Gary Sheffield 2000 .317


SEASON
2004
ISOLATED POWER ISO
1 Barry Bonds .450
2 Jim Edmonds .341
3 Albert Pujols .326
4 Jim Thome .307
5 Manny Ramirez .305
6 Adam Dunn .303
7 David Ortiz .302
8 Adrian Beltre .294
9 Scott Rolen .284
10 Carlos Beltran .280
11 Mark Teixeira .279
12 Jeromy Burnitz .276
13 Todd Helton .272
14 Travis Hafner .272
15 Carlos Delgado .266
16 Moises Alou .265
17 J.D. Drew .264
18 Vinny Castilla .264
19 Sammy Sosa .264
20 Vladimir Guerrero .261
21 Aramis Ramirez .260
22 Jose Valentin .258
23 Paul Konerko .258
24 Lance Berkman .250
25 Mike Cameron .247



SEASON
2003

ISOLATED POWER
1 Barry Bonds .408
2 Jim Edmonds .342
3 Albert Pujols .308
4 Jim Thome .306
5 David Ortiz .304
6 Alex Rodriguez .301
7 Frank Thomas .295
8 Carlos Delgado .291
9 Jason Giambi .277
10 Richie Sexson .276
11 Sammy Sosa .275
12 Gary Sheffield .274
13 Trot Nixon .272
14 Todd Helton .271
15 Richard Hidalgo .263
16 Manny Ramirez .262
17 Jose Guillen .258
18 Preston Wilson .255
19 Mike Lowell .254
20 Jeromy Burnitz .248
21 Rafael Palmeiro .248
22 Jeff Bagwell .246
23 Aubrey Huff .244
24 Geoff Jenkins .242
25 Scott Rolen .242


SEASON
2002

ISOLATED POWER
1 Barry Bonds .429
2 Jim Thome .373
3 Brian Giles .324
4 Alex Rodriguez .324
5 Sammy Sosa .306
6 Rafael Palmeiro .299
7 Manny Ramirez .298
8 Lance Berkman .285
9 Jason Giambi .284
10 Magglio Ordonez .276
11 Shawn Green .273
12 Carlos Delgado .271
13 Larry Walker .264
14 Mike Piazza .264
15 Pat Burrell .263
16 Vladimir Guerrero .257
17 Mark Bellhorn .254
18 Jeff Kent .252
19 Jim Edmonds .250
20 Andruw Jones .248
21 Todd Helton .248
22 Albert Pujols .247
23 Alfonso Soriano .247
24 Cliff Floyd .244
25 Raul Ibanez .243


SEASON
2001

ISOLATED POWER
1 Barry Bonds .536
2 Sammy Sosa .409
3 Luis Gonzalez .363
4 Todd Helton .349
5 Jim Thome .333
6 Jason Giambi .317
7 Larry Walker .312
8 Alex Rodriguez .304
9 Manny Ramirez .302
10 Shawn Green .300
11 Rafael Palmeiro .290
12 Lance Berkman .289
13 Phil Nevin .282
14 Albert Pujols .281
15 Brian Giles .281
16 Troy Glaus .281
17 Jeff Bagwell .280
18 Richie Sexson .276
19 Chipper Jones .274
20 Mike Piazza .272
21 Gary Sheffield .272
22 Juan Gonzalez .265
23 Ellis Burks .262
24 Carlos Delgado .261
25 Cliff Floyd .261


SEASON
2000

ISOLATED POWER
1 Barry Bonds .381
2 Manny Ramirez .346
3 Todd Helton .326
4 Richard Hidalgo .323
5 Carlos Delgado .320
6 Troy Glaus .320
7 Vladimir Guerrero .319
8 Gary Sheffield .317
9 Sammy Sosa .315
10 Jason Giambi .314
11 Jeff Bagwell .305
12 David Justice .298
13 Frank Thomas .297
14 Alex Rodriguez .291
15 Mike Piazza .290
16 Jim Edmonds .288
17 Carl Everett .286
18 Geoff Jenkins .285
19 Ken Griffey Jr. .285
20 Brian Giles .279
21 Rafael Palmeiro .269
22 Moises Alou .269
23 Brad Fullmer .263
24 Steve Finley .263
25 Jeff Kent .262

The BEST NL Closer ISNT Gagne

The Best Closer in the
National League Isn’t Named
Eric Gagne
by
Ray Flowers

July 7th, 2004

OK, can you tell us who these stats belong to?

SV ERA WHIP BAA
25 0.84 0.81 .194
*BAA= batting average against

If you said Eric Gagne, well…you’re mistaken. If you said Armando Benitez, try again. Danny Graves? Keep guessing. In fact, we would stipulate that these stats belong to the closer who has been the best in the National League during the 2004 season, and since we already know these stats don’t belong to Gange, we might be stating the unthinkable to some of you:

The best closer in the National League in the first half of the 2004 season is… Danny Kolb.

Blasphemous you say? No we haven’t lost our mind, and no this isn’t a joke. All we ask is that you keep an open mind and listen to the evidence and let it speak to you. Forget what everyone says, forget your own preconceived notions, let the statistical information inform your opinion. On the day after Gagne blew his first save after converting 84 straight chances, we will examine the question of who the best closer in the NL is thus far in 2004.

THE EVIDENCE:

PART I- TRADITIONAL

Let’s look at the traditional information that we use to judge closers and compare the numbers of Danny Kolb, the aforementioned Eric Gagne, the league leader in saves in Danny Graves, and the Marlins Armando Benitez.

SV ERA WHIP BAA
Kolb 25 0.84 0.81 .194
Gagne 21 2.00 0.83 .165
Graves 31 2.89 1.07 .251
Benitez 27 1.07 0.88 .154

In this initial comparison there is little to tell the four apart unless you go by the save total. However, as we will explain, the raw total of saves is often what gets people into trouble as they become fixated upon it to the exclusion of other more relevant information. In order to show just how hallow Graves save total is, let’s take a look at blown saves. Here are the blown saves for each pitcher in 2004, followed by their save percentage (a figure which is more informative of a closers effectiveness than his raw save total):

BS SV%
Kolb 1 96.2%
Gagne 1 95.4%
Graves 7 81.6%
Benitez 2 93.1%

Again not much to tell the pitchers apart other than the fact that Graves falls rather precipitously in this statistical measurement.

How about we look at each player’s Rolaids relief points as of July 7th and see how they stack up. Rolaids points are figured by scoring 2 points for a win, 3 points for a save, 4 points for a "tough save" (which is entering the game with the tying run on base), and a minus 2 points for a loss or a blown save. The Rolaids standings:

Kolb 73
Gagne 66
Graves 75
Benitez 83

We will admit to having a few issues for the way that Rolaids tabulates its points our most salient contention being how is it that you are awarded three points for a save and only a (–2) points for a blown save? Shouldn’t a failure at least weigh as much as a success? Some people, including the author, would even argue that a failure should count for more, but any way you look at it, there is no common sense reason that it should count for less. Another issue that we have is with the definition of the save itself: should a pitcher really receive a save if he enters the game with the tying run on deck? On May 6th Gagne earned a “save’ on 3 pitches after coming into the game with a 9 to 4 lead and the bases loaded. If he had given up a grand slam his team would have still been in the lead! Anyway, this is not the place for us to make this argument, that time will come in an upcoming piece.

Why don’t we move on to list some less well-known statistical information to buttress our contention that Kolb has been the best NL closer in the first half.

PART II-
NON-TRADITIONAL ANALYSIS

Lets chart our four hurlers according to these non-traditional, but equally important categories.

K/BB OBPA SLGA OPSA
Kolb 2.20 .235 .194 .429
Gagne 5.56 .234 .299 .533
Graves 5.20 .273 .458 .731
Benitez 2.33 .231 .273 .504
*K/BB= Strikeouts divided by walks.
**OBP Against, SLG Against, OPS Against

Again, Gagne has done nothing to distance himself from the other three and we are beginning to see just why we are making the argument in favor of Kolb. Kolb allows an OPS that is 96 points less than Gagne, a rather staggering difference of almost 20%!

What about the damage that the pitchers give up with those hits (measured by the total bases these closers give up on all the hits they have surrendered)? Through 32 innings, Kolb has not given up one extra base hit…not a single HR, not a lucky bouncing triple down the first base line, and not a broken bat double. Kolb has NOT ALLOWED ONE EXTRA BASE HIT THIS SEASON! In comparison Gagne has allowed 5 2B and 4 HR, Graves 10 2B and 9 HR, and Benitez 5 2B and 4 HR. Just think about that for a minute, Kolb has not allowed a single extra base hit, that’s utterly remarkable. Here’s the Total Base (TB) list:

TBA IP TBA/IP
Kolb 21 32.0 0.66
Gagne 38 35.0 1.09
Graves 82 46.2 1.76
Benitez 39 42.0 0.93
*TBA= Total Bases Allowed
Another category, another convincing “win” for Kolb. And speaking of Kolb’s greatness, look at poor Mr. Graves. Graves allows bases at a frequency that more than doubles Kolb mark, another startling reason that should be used to devalue what Graves has accomplished thus far.

Building on Kolb’s sizable lead in bases allowed, we move on to discussing just how the balls put in play are actually hit off each hurler. Kolb keeps the ball in the park by keeping the ball down in the strikezone as evidenced by his 4.00 groundball to flyball ratio (meaning that Kolb allows 4 groundballs for every flyball). The others ratios of groundballs to flyballs: Gagne’s is 0.93, Graves 1.59 and Benitez 0.45. This is yet another reason which helps to illustrate why Kolb leads the other relievers in pitching effectiveness because its obvious that your less likely to give up a big inning if you keep the ball on the ground than if you let guys put the ball in the air. One side note: Kolb throws only 13.9 pitches per inning, just behind Graves’ 13.6 (with Gagne at 14.5 and Benitez 15.2) meaning that he is more economical than his Dodger nemesis as well.


CONLCUSION

So let’s present all the information that we have cited in this article in one final chart. We will award 1 point for leading the category down to 4 for a last place finish in each category. Therefore the closer who ends up with the lowest total will be the “winner.”

SV SV% Rolaids ERA
Kolb 3 1 3 1
Gagne 4 2 4 3
Graves 1 4 2 4
Benitez 2 3 1 2

WHIP BAA OBPA SLGA
Kolb 1 3 3 1
Gagne 2 2 2 3
Graves 4 4 4 4
Benitez 3 1 1 2

OPSA TBA/IP K/BB G/F
Kolb 1 1 4 1
Gagne 3 3 1 3
Graves 4 4 2 2
Benitez 2 2 3 4


TOTALS
Kolb- 23
Benitez- 26
Gagne- 32
Graves- 39

After having surveyed 12 separate categories our winner is… Danny Kolb. Now this is not to say that Gagne is terrible, he clearly isn’t, and it’s not to say that Kolb is the best closer of all-time, he clearly isn’t. What it does state, and rather emphatically, is that the best closer in the NL during the first half of the 2004 season resides in the park that has the CF slide and Bernie Brewer. So the next time the game is on the line and your blood pressure goes up and you hear “Hells Bells” or some other closers anthem, remember that the man you want closing the game for your team doesn’t reside in L.A., he actually pitches for the Milwaukee Brewers.


RAYS NOTES

I didn’t want to write a story about the Gagne streak, so lucky for me that Tim Kurkjian of ESPN did
(http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=1832526). Read what he wrote, he makes a pretty good argument for the idea that for all of Gagne’s greatness, historically speaking, it just doesn’t measure up to what other have accomplished.

Ray Flowers can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@drafthelp.com
You can also visit Rays’ blog at www.wildpitch.blogspot.com for a full review of all of his recent articles an other interesting stuff or view his work at www.drafthelp.com.