Wednesday, July 21, 2004

Ray's Notes

ray@drafthelp.com

Thanks for stopping by...

WORLD SERIES NOTES
Though it has been widely reported that the BoSox were the first team ever to win 8 playoof games in a row this is not quite true. They are the first team to win 8 in a row in ONE PLAYOFF YEAR. But according to work by two fellow SABR members, the record for most post season wins in a row is actually longer.

Norman Price reports that the Yankees, on two different occasions,swept successive World Series (or 8 wins in a row): The 1927-28 Yanks (over Pittsburgh and St Louis) and the 1938-39 Yanks (Cubs and Reds).

R. J. Lesch also added that the record for consecutive post season wins is 12 in a row, also accomplished by the Yankees. Here is what he found.
(1) The Yanks swept the World Series in 1927, 1928 and 1932.
(2) In the 1998 ALCS they won the last 3 games, followed by a sweep of the WS, then swept the 1999 ALDS, and were victorious in the first two games of the 1999 ALCS.

So what has been widely reported is only half the story...leave it to the SABR guys to get it right.


OCTOBER 5th
Sorry for the delay..I've been busy looking at purchasing homes and writing a bunch of season ending articles dealing with wrapping up the season, Cy Young Voting, MVP Voting, Barry Bonds, and Ichiro. that can be read at:
www.athomeplate.com
AND
http://www.drafthelp.com/BaseballMain.htm

With that, let's add some notes here:

~~~With 157 K this year in only 94.2 IP, BRAD LIDGE set an all-time record for most K by a reliever in NL history. His ratio of 14.93 K per 9 IP is the second best all-time for a single season for a pitcehr with over 75 IP. The list:

Eric Gagne ,2003 / 14.98
BRAD LIDGE, 2004/14.92
Armando Benitez ,1999/ 14.77
Rob Dibble , 1991 / 13.55
Randy Johnson , 2001 / 13.41
Pedro Martinez , 1999 / 13.20
Rob Dibble , 1989 / 12.82
Kerry Wood , 1998 / 12.58
Pedro Martinez , 2001 / 12.57
Randy Johnson , 2000 / 12.56

~~~Have you seen ESPN's Cy Young Predictor Page developed by ROB NEYER and BILL JAMES? If you haevn't you should take a look. According to their work, they predict the following results.

AL
1. JOHAN SANTANA- 203.8
2. MARIANO RIVERA- 196.3
3. CURT SCHILLING- 174.5

NL
1. ERIC GAGNE- 193.7
2. JASON ISRINGHAUSEN- 173.3
3. ROGER CLEMENS- 166.1

Personally I'm a bit skeptical of rankings that place relievers this high, especialluy IZZY, but according to the book written by Neyer and James called THE NEYER JAMES GUIDE TO PITCHERS, the system predicts the winner more than 80% of the time (p.468). So we'll see wont we.



More can be read about this analysis at: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy

SEPTEMBER 19th
(The following info was reported by Rotoworld.com on Sept. 19th)

"Aaron Rowand is hitting .336 with 18 doubles and 40 RBI since the All-Star break."

"Esteban Loaiza will start Tuesday against the Blue Jays. His mound opponent will be Blue Jays' ace Roy Halladay who, has been out of action with a shoulder injury and will make his first start in over a month."

"Alfonso Soriano had his strained left hamstring examined today by Dr. Lewis Yocum. It appears that Dr. Yocum agrees with the Rangers doctors' earlier diagnosis. Soriano will be out of action for at least one more week."

"Adrian Beltre broke Ron Cey's record for the most runs batted in by a Dodger third baseman in a season.Beltre now has 111 for the campaign."

"Freddy Garcia is undefeated (8-0) in nine day starts this season."

"Mark Redman is 8-6 with a 2.88 ERA in 16 starts on the road. At home, he is 3-6 with a 7.81 ERA in 14 starts."

"Johan Santana struck out a career-high 14 batters and won his 12th straight decision this afternoon. We have run out of superlatives to describe Santana. He leads the AL, in strikeouts with 254 and has a league low 2.65 ERA."



SEPTEMBER 15th
Every baseball fan as a kid loves to wear his home teams jersey with his favoire player on the back (heck some of us still wear jerseys as adults!) We thought you might like to read a story detailing the development of players wearing numbers on their jerseys.

http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/exhibits/online_exhibits/dressed_to_the_nines/timeline_1929.htm

The link below attests to the fact that while the Yankees are often credited with "inventing" player jerseys with numbers, it was actually the 1916 Indians.
http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/exhibits/online_exhibits/dressed_to_the_nines/timeline_1916c.htm

SEPTEMBER 9th

~CRAIG MONROE...
Has anyone noticed how well this man is hitting? Well if you need some pop as the fantasy season winds down, see if he is still on the waiver wire. He has hit 8 HR in the past 11 games, with hits in 22 of 23 games and 28 RBI over those 23 games.
In August he hit: .333, 8, 21 with a 1.166 OPS.
In Sept. he has hit: .476, 4,9 with a 1.595 OPS.
Seriously...


~What about JOE RANDA? Aided by his 6 hit 6 run game today he's 15 for 27, a .556 average, with 11 runs in 6 games during September. In fact, in his last 34 games he is hitting .336.

~ARMANDO BENITEZ has 11 saves against the METS!!! (Yes that's an all-time record vs. one team). 13.1 IP, 1 ER, 12 K, 0.68 ERA, 0.30 WHIP, .091 BAA. Damn...

~GIOVANNI CARRARRA had an impressive August. In 20.2 IP he allowed 24 baserunners (1.16 WIHIP) with a 0.44 ERA and 19 K. Do the Dodgers really miss GUILLERMO MOTA?

~JC ROMERO...he's nothing but a middle reliever right? True, but look a little closer at his stats. He hasn't allowed a run since June 7th...thats 34.2 IP without a run!!!

~And the sad case of HANK BLALOCK...from the next George Brett to the next...Mike Lowell? Since the break Blalock has been downright horrible hitting .197 with a .667 OPS in 178 at bats (that's after hitting .303 with a .941 OPS pre all-star break).

SEPTEMBER 5th

ICHIRO, Ichiro, Ichiro...sure his hit total will probably be one of the top 10 of all-time, and while that does deserve some attention, it important to remember just what it doesn't mean.
According to my fellow SABR members, the following points are true.
1- Ichiro has a RunsCreated Score of 8.5, meaning that a team made of 9 Ichiro's would score 8.5 Runs per game. A team of 9 BONDS you ask? Try 23!!!

2- Ichiro has made over 90% MORE outs than Bonds this year despite hitting for a higher average.

3- Bonds has roughly 150% MORE extra base hits than Ichiro.

4- Bonds secondary average, which measures hits other than singles, is 300% higher than Ichiro's.

5- These above stats mean that a team of 9 Bonds would beat a team of 9 Ichiro's 85% of the time.

Dont forget this the next time someone says that Ichiro is the best ever or something to that effect.


AUGUST 27th

~ This year poor JEFF BAGWELL, with that damn busted up shoulder of his, has only been able to hit 18 HR in 433 at bats. On the other hand CARLOS BELTRAN has 17 HR for the Astros this year...but he has produced those HR in only 202 at bats!

(Special thanks to my brother, Jeff Flowers, who brought this to my attention)


~ From April 1 2003 through August 4th 2004, here are CURT SCHILLING pitching stats:
3 or 4 days rest/ 7-11, 196 IP, 3.80 ERA
5+ days rest/ 12-3, 111 IP, 2.18

(Matt Olkin of Sports Weekly)


~ BRANDON WEBB is on pace to become only the 2nd pitcher ever to finish a season with; (A) an ERA under 4.00, (B) A walks per 9IP ratio above 5, and (C) a winning % under .300.
Webb is 5-14 (.263), with a 3.70 ERA and a walk ratio of 5.23 per 9 IP.

The only pitcher to accomplish this feat? RUSS CHRISTOPHER who for teh A's in 1942 went 4-13 with a 3.82 ERA and a 5.40 BB/9 IP ratio.

(Mark Camps, SF Chronicle)

~ Because of his tremendous 2nd half hot streak, ADRIAN BELTRE is on pace to become just the 3rd 3B of all-time to finish a season with a .325 average, 40 HR and 100 RBI. Here are his 2nd half stats: .377, 18, 38, in 151 at bats with a 1.226 OPS over 39 games.

The other two players to do this? Al Rosen (.336,43,135 in 1953) and Ken Caminiti (.326,40, 130 in 1996) ...and co-incidentally, both men won the MVP.

(Rotoworld August 26th, 2004)




AUGUST 22
HAPPY ANNIVERSARY MOM AND DAD

~ We have written a series of articles on relief pitchers, our most recent and possibly most controversial dealing with who the best NL closer is and it ISNT Eric Gagne (http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Flowers_BestNLCloser.htm). The man we tabbed was Danny Kolb and most often when we here replies from readers we hear something to the effect of ‘there’s no way he’ll be good for the long haul, he just doesn’t strike out enough guys.’ K or not, you can still be successful as a closer. Ever heard of Dan Quisenberry???

Over 6 years, 1980-1985, here are his stats.
41-33
212 SV
724.2 IP
246 K
OR
3.06 per 9 IP

Whereas KOLB is:
6-11
56 SV
156 IP
107 K
OR
6.17 per 9 IP

Here are the top 25 all-time save guys before the 2004 season.
SV / SO per 9 IP
1 Lee Smith 478 / 8.73
2 John Franco 424 / 7.01
3 Dennis Eckersley 390 / 6.58
4 Jeff Reardon 367 / 6.97
5 Trevor Hoffman 352 / 10.24
6 Randy Myers 347 / 8.99
7 Rollie Fingers 341 / 6.87
8 John Wetteland 330 / 9.46
9 Roberto Hernandez 320 / 8.20
10 Rick Aguilera 318 / 7.18
11 Robb Nen 314 / 9.98
12 Tom Henke 311 / 9.81
13 Goose Gossage 310 / 7.47
14 Jeff Montgomery 304 / 7.59
15 Doug Jones 303 / 7.25
16 Bruce Sutter 300 / 7.43
17 Rod Beck 286 / 7.61
T18 Mariano Rivera 283 / 8.06
T18 Troy Percival 283 / 10.84
20 Todd Worrell 256 / 8.15
21 Dave Righetti 252 / 7.13
22 Jose Mesa 249 / 6.20
23 Dan Quisenberry 244 / 3.27
24 Sparky Lyle 238 / 5.65
25 Hoyt Wilhelm 227 / 6.43

So while KOLB does lag a bit behind, its not really that bad. Nor is it really that important how many you K, cause an out is an out. And before you say something else…guys like Maddux and Glaving don’t strike many guys out and they have over 550 wins…its about pitching not K’s.


~~ For those of you who missed it ex-Giant JOE NATHAN recently lost his scoreless streak the other night afer 28 games without giving up a run of any kind (earned or unearned). For comparison Gagne's longest streak this year is also 28. Nathan has only given up a run in 3 games this season (out of 54) while Gagne has given up a run in 11 appearances (out of 54 games). Overall Nathan is 1-1 with 34 Sv, a 1.30 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a .190 BAA. The man is flat out dealing...our poor Giants...if they had only known.


AUGUST 13TH
FOR THOSE OF YOU INTERESTED IN THE RECENT 300 GAME WINNER DEBATE, SEE OUR ARTICLE AT:
http://www.athomeplate.com/ray300wins.shtml

AUGUST 12th
Edgar Martinez announced his retirement at the end of the 2004 season. Accoridng to Lee Sinnis, Martinez ranks 12th in career OBA vs. the league average (7500+ PA, since 1900)

OBA DIFF/ PLAYER/ LEAGUE
1 Ted Williams .134/ .482 /.348
2 Babe Ruth .118 /.474 /.356
3 Barry Bonds .103/ .439/ .336
4 Ty Cobb .093/ .433/ .340
5 Rogers Hornsby .091 /.434 /.342
6 Frank Thomas .089 /.429 /.339
7 Mickey Mantle .087 /.421 /.333
8 Lou Gehrig .086 /.447 /.361
9 Tris Speaker .084 /.428/ .344
10 Eddie Collins .082 /.424 /.342
11 Wade Boggs .082/ .415/ .333
12 Edgar Martinez .081 /.420/ .338
13 Stan Musial .079/ .417/ .338
14 Mel Ott .071/ .414 /.343
15 Jimmie Foxx .070 /.428/ .358

~ ICHIRO was AL Player of the Week. He went 16 for 31 (.516) with a .710 SLG%. In the Mariners last 21 games he has gone 50 for 100, for a .500 average!

~MELVIN MORA is hitting .500 in August (15 for 30) with 6 HR and 13 RBI. So much for another second half fade…Mora is hitting .365, 9,25 with a 1.195 OPS since the break (compared to last years .188,2,3, .592)

BAY AREA NEWS
~ Since coming off the DL on June 25th, JT SNOW is batting .361 (39 for 108) with 5 HR and 21 RBI.
~ RICH HARDEN is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his last 6 starts.
~ This just in… MATT HERGES isnt that good. He is 4-5 with a 5.65 ERA, and a 1.73 WHIP.
~ Keep an eye on JARIO GARICA (pronounce HI-row) who had burned up the minors this year. He pitched 30 innings at A, 18 at AA and 5 at AAA before pitching 2 scoreless innings for the A’s. His minor league numbers are astounding: 53 IP, 3-0, 0.67 ERA, 91 K, 19 Sv…that translates to a K rate of15.5 per 9 IP.




AUGUST 9th
~According to ESPN's Baseball Tonight...
here are the 5 active players with the greatest home/road Batting Average splits among active players.
(Home/Avg/Difference)
Helton .374/.297/.077
Walker .350/.279//071
McCracken .309/.250/.059
Varitek .294/.242/.052
Mayne .290/.240/.250

~ Here are Matt Clement's stats the past two months (June and July)...has this man been robbed or what?
2-7, 3.01 ERA, 82 K, 1.29 WHIP, .242 BA against in 77.2 IP.

Oh yeah, he's also 84th out of the 89 starting pictchers that qualify for the ERA title in Run Support @ 3.66

The other "winners":
89 Zach Day, 2.47
88 Ben Sheets, 3.23
87 Ryan Franklin, 3.28
86 Odalis Perez, 3.38
85 Kelvim Escobar 3.49


~Hank Blalock went from all-star stud, to all-star thud. His stats the last 2 months:
JUNE .367,9,24,.420 OBP, 1.099 OPS (109 AB)
JULY .190,3,17,.296 OBP,.626 OPS (100 AB)

What happend? In August he is still going down:
AUGUST .185,0,3,.200,.422 (27 AB)



AUGUST 2
~We must make a correction. In our previous RAYS NOTES of JULY 29th we made the claim that Ichiro was about to become the first man to have 3 seperate months in his career with 50 hits, but according to SABR member Trent McCotter, this is wrong. Mr. McCotter reported that Ty Cobb had 7 such months!

July 1908-51
July 1912-67
June 1917-51
July 1917-55
July 1918-50
May 1921-58
July 1922-67

Apprently ELIAS records, used by most mainstream sources, only go back until about 1950 with comprehensive effectiveness. Luckily the members of SABR are on the case!

~ Players of the month for JULY:
LoDuca, V.Martinez

1B
Pujols, Teixeira
2B
Reyes, M. Young
3B
Beltre, C. Guillen
SS
Matsui, Tejada
OF
Abreu, Damon
Edmonds, R. Winn
Burnitez, Ichiro
SP
Ru.Ortiz, Santana
Hampton, Lackey
Maddux, Garcia
Ol.Perez, Colon
RP
Smoltz, Nathan

(A story will be posted soon detailing their exploits...check back for the story).

JULY 29
~ Rotoworld.com claimed tonight that Scott Rolen finally had a down month in 2004. His stats in July: .302 with five home runs and 16 RBI in 22 games during July. Is that a down month???

~ Don't look now but the scariest NL lefty may no longer be Randy Johnson but Oliver Perez of the Pirates. WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING you say? Nothing. Compare their stats.
RJ is 10-8,2.68,174K in 151.1 IP, with a 0.89 WHIP
PEREZ is 6-5, 3.03, 143K in 119IP, with a 1.09 WHIP

Pretty darn close.

~ Ichiro needs 7 more hits in the last three games this month to become the first player EVER to have 3 seperate months with 50 hits. The other player with two such months...the hit king, Pete Rose.

~ Here are the players who have hit 50 HR in a season and what their AVG was in those seasons:
1 Barry Bonds 2001 (73) .328
2 Mark McGwire 1998 (70) .299
3 Sammy Sosa 1998 (66) .308
4 Mark McGwire 1999 (65) .278
5 Sammy Sosa 2001 (64) .328
6 Sammy Sosa 1999 (63) .288
7 Roger Maris 1961 (61) .269
8 Babe Ruth 1927 (60) .356
9 Babe Ruth 1921 (59) .378
T10 Jimmie Foxx 1932 (58) .364
T10 Hank Greenberg 1938 (58) .315
T10 Mark McGwire 1997 (58) .274
T13 Luis Gonzalez 2001 (57) .325
T13 Alex Rodriguez 2002 (57) .300
T15 Ken Griffey Jr. 1997 (56) .304
T15 Ken Griffey Jr. 1998 (56) .284
T15 Hack Wilson 1930 (56) .356
T18 Ralph Kiner 1949 (54) .310
T18 Babe Ruth 1920 (54) .376
T18 Mickey Mantle 1961 (54) .317
T18 Babe Ruth 1928 (54) .323
T22 George Foster 1977 (52) .320
T22 Mark McGwire 1996 (52) .312
T22 Mickey Mantle 1956 (52) .353
T22 Jim Thome 2002 (52) .304
T22 Alex Rodriguez 2001 (52) .318
T22 Willie Mays 1965 (52) .317
T28 Cecil Fielder 1990 (51) .277
T28 Ralph Kiner 1947 (51) .313
T28 Johnny Mize 1947 (51) .302
T28 Willie Mays 1955 (51) .319
T32 Brady Anderson 1996 (50) .297
T32 Jimmie Foxx 1938 (50) .349
T32 Albert Belle 1995 (50) .317
T32 Greg Vaughn 1998 (50) .272
T32 Sammy Sosa 2000 (50) .320



JULY 24
~ Royals' first baseman Mike Sweeney went 3-for-5 with a home run against the Indians Friday night and is now batting .407 with six home runs and 19 RBI in the 12 games since returning from his back injury (he is on pace for 31 HR an 117 RBI).

~ Johan Santana, JUNE/JULY Stats
6-3, 1.74 ERA, 77.2 IP, 0.67 WHIP (33 Hits, 19 BB), 101 K (11.8 per 9 IP), .094 batting average against.

~ Joe Nathan currently has a 19-inning scoreless streak. Nathan's ERA for the season is 1.01.

~How happy was Larry Walker tonight? Known as a superstious freak when it comes to the #3 (such as wearing the number 33), Walker went 3 for 3, with 3 runs and 3 RBI. This big night brought his season totals to 6 HR and 18 RBI (also two numbers divisible by three).

~ What the hell happened to Carlos Delgado? Injuries aside he is hitting .208, 11, 38 in 236 at bats. His OPS thus far is .702, over .300 points lower than his total last year 1.019 and .239 points below his career mark (.941). PATHETIC.

~ Former Cy Young winner Pat Hentgen retired Saturday at the age of 35. According to the Associated Press, Hentgen won the 1996 AL Cy Young Award, going 20-10 with a 3.22 ERA. The three-time All-Star spent 14 seasons in the majors, going 131-112 with a 4.32 ERA. He also pitched for St. Louis and Baltimore. According to ESPN's BASEBALL TONIGHT, Hentgen also has the highest Career ERA of any Cy Young winner at 4.32.

~ According to OUT OF THE BOX at ESPN (http://games.espn.go.com/cgi/flb/OutOfTheBox/index?gameDate=20040721 )
Carl Crawford is on pace to go 70/70 this year (SB and RBI). The last guy who even sniffed that feat was Kenny Lofton in 1996 when he went 75/67.

According to OUR research, here is the list of men who have accomplished 70 SB and 70 RBI in the same season since 1901:
SB/ RBI
Ty Cobb 1915, 96/ 99
Tim Raines 1983, 90/ 71
Clyde Milan 1912, 88/ 79
Rickey Henderson 1986, 87/ 74
Ty Cobb 1911, 83/ 127
Eddie Collins 1910, 81/ 81
Eric Davis 1986, 80/ 71
Rickey Henderson 1985, 80/ 72
Ty Cobb 1909, 76/ 107
Benny Kauff 1914, 75/ 95

AND
Juan Samuel just missed out in 1984 with 72 SB and 69 RBI.





JULY 21


I.) Who are the two players who have 3000 career...not hits...but singles?
ROSE 3215
COBB 3051

Figures right?

As for the greatest singles hitter deabte that can be read at :
http://forums.mlbcenter.com/index.php?

Amongst the top 50 all-time list of hitters (based on hits), Wee Willie had the highest average of singles at 85.7% (2512 of 2932). The next guy is Eddie Collins at 79.7 (2641 of 3312) and Jesse Burkett (2272 of 2850).


II.)In 1887 Tip Oniel produced the highest batting average EVER...did you know that?
Oniel's average in 1887 was .485 !!! Sure 1887 happened to be the only year that walks were counted as hits (see TOTAL BASEBALL, 8th Edition, p.2438), but it was still an amazing year. He not only won the Triple Crown (.485,14,123) but he also led the league in the following categories:
RUNS (167), HITS (275), 2B (52), 3B (14), OBP (.490), SLG (.691), OPS (1.1180).

III.)MATT HERGES troubles...

Besides being 2nd in the league in blown saves with 7 (to Danny Graves), Herges has been horrendous lately giving up 9 runs in his last 3 IP. ALOU has maintained that Herges is still the man, but in 2 of his last 3 appearances he has been forced to pull Herges…the writings on the wall.

Herges is really the 4th closer for the Giants….Nen (hurt), Worrell (free agent), Nathan (traded) and then Herges. So is it a surprise that he has struggled?

Herges has also allowed 17 of 28 INHERITED RUNNERS to score this year, meaning his 5.82 ERA could, and should, be even Higher!

On that note…you might want to keep an eye out for a future article that might be appearing on this site detailing closers abilities to keep inherited runners from scoring.

IV.) According to THE PITCHER by Thorn and HOLOWAY (p.45), MIKE KRUKOW, current Giants Broadcaster, once pitched a no-hitter in college for CAL-POLY, while walking 17 men!!!


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