Wednesday, July 14, 2004

CARLOS BELTRAN AND KAUFFMAN STADIUM

I recently wrote an article detailing whether or not the move from hitter friendly Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City would hurt new Astros Carlos Beltran’s statistics.
http://rototimes.com/index.php?sport=bsball&type=misc&name=F20040701165836

I also wrote an addendum to this piece (which is located BELOW) to answer a few questions that I received regarding the original work.

I would also recommend viewing fellow SABR member DAN FOX’s article on the topic of Kauffman Stadium at: http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2004/01/kauffman-park-effects.html.



MY ADDENDUM
OK, so I have gotten some replies about my Beltran article, and thanks to all of you for taking the time to write. Here is a response that I’ve written to speak to some people’s questions.

1. THE FENCES…Yes the fences were moved back this year, and yes it will have an effect on the way the park plays. That said I didn’t include in the overall discussion 2004 stadium stats because it’s really too early to know the full effect. Plus with only certain teams visiting Kauffman stadium thus far, it really isn’t safe to comment on the issue until the entire season has been played.

2. THE PARK…The way a park plays greatly effects the way the game is played and its results. YES the Royals pitching has been bad, and yes that effects how the park plays. But the data I presented is for BOTH teams in each park meaning that BOTH the home/away teams stats are reflected in the data (so they away stats would be equally effected by the Royals poor pitching).

Some more numbers for the 2002 and 2003 seasons:

HOUSTON- (includes the team they were playing against at each venue)

HOME games- .263, 304 HR, 1358 Runs
AWAY games- .251, 293HR, 1262 Runs
*** This means that there were 96 more runs scored in games at Houston versus games when they were the away team, and that both teams batted 12 points higher in Houston than when the Astros were the road team.


KANSAS CITY- (includes the team they were playing against at each venue)

HOME games- .284, 346 HR, 1645 Runs
AWAY games- .258, 281 HR, 1281 Runs
***This means that at games played in Kansas City, the Royals and the opposing team hit 26 points HIGHER, for 65 MORE HR and scored a whopping 364 MORE Runs than in games when the Royals were the road team.

Clearly Kauffman stadium has had a HUGE impact on offense versus when the Royals play on the road.

* For those of you who would like some documentation of that pick up THE BILL JAMES HANDBOOK 2004, where it lists just how each park performs in relation to others.

3. BELTRAN…I think some people have misunderstood my article a bit. I NEVER said that Beltran would be worse. My premise was that the move to Houston shouldn’t cause his numbers to go up solely because of the park change. Great players, an I assume Beltran is one, overcome whatever is thrown in front of them and I expect him to do just as well in Houston as he would have done if he had stayed in KC, but no any better.


Ray
Draftehlp.com
www.wildpitch.blogspot.com





3 Comments:

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