Wednesday, June 30, 2004

THE FAVORITE TOY...Predictions of Career Accomplishments

See story

For the sake of this example we will use Arod stats prior to the start of the 2004 season, and use the “Toy” to figure out his chances at career totals in hits.

At the start of the 2004 season, Arod had 1535 hits.
Lets figure out what his chances are for reaching 3000 hits.

1. The number of hits the player needs to reach the goal.
2. How many years he has left to reach the goal.
3. His estimated hit level.
4. His projected remaining hits.

I. First you begin with the players current stat: 1535 hits.
(a) You then subtract that stat from the goal (in this case 3000 hits) = 1465

II. Years Remaining
(a) Take the players age at the start of the last season completed (Arod was 27).
(b) FORMULA: 24 - .6 (age)
(c) 24 - .6(27) = 7.8
(d) IF the player is a catcher, multiply the answer from line C by .7
(e) IF the player is older than 39, he still receives 1.5 years remaining, for that is the lowest number that can be given in this formula.

III. Established Level
(a) Add the last three years totals together by the following formula:
Most recent season TIMES 3, next season TIMES 2, then 3rd Season.

For Arod that would mean: 2003 (181), 2002 (187), 2001(201).

201 + 187 (2) + 181 (3) = 201+374 + 543 = 1118
then divide by 6 = 186.3

IV. Projected Remaining
(a) Multiply years remaining by established level.
AROD: 7.8 x 186.3 = 1453

V. Probability
Take Projected Remaining / Amount Needed, then subtract .50
(1453/1465) - .50
.99 - .50 = .49


Arod has a 49% chance of reaching 3,000 career hits.


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