PWSA...POWER SPEED AVERAGE

POWER SPEED AVERAGE, or PWSA, is an invention to determine the relative value of players in the categories of HR an SB (it is meant to replace Power Speed Number of Bill James).

To review, here is the formula to figure out PWSA.

PWSA = [(HR x Ratio) + (SB x Ratio)] x 10

For the 2004 season here are the ratios:

HR = There were 5451 HR.
This means that each HR was worth 0.000183 (1/5451

SB = There were 2589 SB.
This means that each SB was worth 0.000386 (1/ 2589)

EXAMPLE

Lew Ford had 15 HR and 20 SB.
PWSA = [(HR x Ratio) + (SB x Ratio)] x 10
(15*0.000183) + (20*0.000386) x 10
(0.002745 + .00772) x 10
Therefore Lew Ford's 2004 PWSA is .105.


Here are the 2004 PWSA Leaders

Player/Team/ PWSA
S. Podsednik, Mil /0.292
C. Crawford, TB /0.248
C. Beltran, KC/Hou /0.232
B. Abreu, Phi /0.209
J. Pierre, Fla 0.179
A. Rodriguez, NYY /0.174
C. Patterson, ChC /0.167
D. Roberts, Bos/LA /0.154
I. Suzuki, Sea /0.154
R. Freel, Cin /0.148
J. Rollins, Phi/ 0.141
C. Figgins, Ana /0.140
M. Cameron, NYM /0.140
R. Furcal, Atl /0.138
E. Chavez, Mon /0.133
D. Jeter, NYY /0.131
V. Guerrero, Ana/ 0.129
M. Lawton, Cle /0.125
T. Hunter, Min/ 0.123
R. Sanders, StL/ 0.121
A. Soriano, Tex /0.121
B. Roberts, Bal /0.119
A. Beltre, LA /0.115
T. Batista, Mon /0.113
J. Damon, Bos /0.110
A. Rowand, CWS /0.110
T. Womack, StL /0.110
B. Wilkerson, Mon/ 0.109
J. Edmonds, StL /0.108
A. Dunn, Cin /0.107
R. Winn, Sea /0.107
B. Bonds, SF /0.106
D. Lee, ChC /0.105
C. Crisp, Cle /0.105
L. Ford, Min /0.105
C. Izturis, LA /0.104
A. Pujols, StL /0.103
J. Drew, Atl /0.103
E. Byrnes, Oak /0.102
S. Finley, LA/Ari/ 0.101
C. Lee, CWS /0.099
R. Baldelli, TB /0.095
J. Jones, Min /0.094
J. Lugo, TB /0.094
M. Bradley, LA /0.093
M. Mora, Bal /0.092
L. Berkman, Hou /0.090
J. Burnitz, Col /0.087
M. Young, Tex /0.087
O. Vizquel, Cle /0.086
J. Valentin, CWS/ 0.086
G. Sheffield, NYY/ 0.085
L. Castillo, Fla/ 0.085
T. Redman, Pit /0.084
E. Renteria, StL/ 0.084
C. Guillen, Det /0.083
B. Boone, Sea /0.083
J. DaVanon, Ana /0.082
R. Mackowiak, Pit/ 0.081
J. Cruz Jr., TB /0.081
B. Giles, SD /0.081
C. Koskie, Min /0.080
M. Giles, Atl /0.080
O. Cabrera, Bos/Mon/ 0.080
M. Cabrera, Fla /0.080
O. Infante, Det /0.079
A. Sanchez, Det /0.077
W. Harris, CWS /0.077
J. Reyes, NYM /0.077
V. Wells, Tor /0.077
J. Uribe, CWS /0.077
J. Kent, Hou /0.076
C. Pena, Det /0.076
A. Jones, Atl /0.076
E. Chavez, Oak /0.076
A. Kennedy, Ana /0.076
L. Rivas, Min /0.076
C. Floyd, NYM /0.075
D. Erstad, Ana /0.075
E. Hinske, Tor /0.074
J. Bagwell, Hou /0.073
A. Huff, TB /0.072
D. Jimenez, Cin /0.072
J. Varitek, Bos /0.072
C. Biggio, Hou /0.071
B. Clark, Mil /0.071
S. Green, LA /0.071
C. Blake, Cle /0.071
J. Gerut, Cle /0.070
R. Durham, SF /0.070

SportsIllustrated.Com: The Value of the SV

I'm happy to tell you that I have recently had one of my articles published at CNNSI.COM. For those of you who wish to read the article it can be veiwed at:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/fantasy/01/13/save.value/index.html

Here is the lead-in to the story taken from CNNSI.com:

"CASE CLOSED. Baseball drafts are still down the road, but SI.com's Ray Flowers says if there's one rule you need to remember, it's that closers are more valuable than starters."

"Ray Flowers is the statistical guru for FantasyBaseball.com. His work has appeared on numerous Web sites and will be found exclusively at the ALL-NEW FantasyBaseball.com starting later this month. FantasyBaseball.com will be the "Official Site for Fantasy Baseball" and feature in-depth analysis, message boards, live chats and much, much more."

***LET ME ADD SOMETHING TO THE POSTED STORY ***

Some people have been a bit confused about what I wrote so let me clarify.
According to our review of the top SP and RP, we were able to establish a baseline for STRIKEOUTS of:
SP = 0.72 K per 9 IP
RP = 0.93 K per 9 IP

Let’s assume that your league has a 1000 IP maximum.
Now let’s set up two teams.

TEAM A: 5 SP who all pitch 200 innings.
TEAM B: 4 SP who pitch 200 innings, and 3 relievers who pitch 67 innings each.

Therefore…
TEAM A = 1000 IP
TEAM B = 1000 IP

Which team would have more K?

According to our baseline, this is what we would get.

TEAM A: 1000 IP of Starters at .72 K per IP
1000 x .72 = 720 K

Team B: 800 IP of Starters at .72 K per IP
200 IP of Relievers at .93 K per IP
800 x .72 = 576
200 x .93 =186
576 + 186 = 762

TEAM A (total) : 720 K
TEAM B (total) : 762 K

Therefore, per my discussion in the article posted at CNNSI, the team with the top relievers would most probably “win” ERA, WHIP, Saves AND K, while losing only the Win category. That’s four out of five categories for the team that focuses on RP.

REMEMBER…it’s the rate per IP that really matter for ERA/WHIP/K, not necessarily the huge individual numbers posted by some hurlers.



I would like to thank the gentlemen at www.fantasybaseball.com for their help and support (specifically Craig Davis and Ryan Houston). Also, look for lots of big things at the site when it opens in the next few weeks...I think you're all in for a big treat.

LINKS

Websites which I contribute to:

www.fantasybaseball.com
To view all of my writings on the site please go to the HOMEPAGE and in the left hand column click on MEET THE STAFF. Scroll down to my name, and there you can access all of my aritcles.


www.cnnsi.com
(http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/fantasy/01/13/save.value/index.html)

www.athomeplate.com
Go to the "main archive" and type in RAY FLOWERS to bring up the stories I have written.

www.drafthelp.com
Go to the baseball mainpage to see a chronicle of my stories.



Here is a listing of some of my favorites which can be accessed by going to the above sites.

HITTTING STORIES

http://www.athomeplate.com/powervcontact.shtml HOMERUNS HITTERS WHO MAKE CONTACT AND DONT STRIKEOUT

http://www.athomeplate.com/alltimecomps.shtml A COMPARISON OF MODERN DAY PLAYERS TO SOME OF THE ALL-TIME GREATS

http://www.athomeplate.com/alltimefantasy.shtml THE BEST FANTASY SEASON OF THE PAST 20 YEARS.

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_Ballparks.htm HOW MUCH DOES A BALLPARK EFFECT THE OUTCOME?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Ray_HRRates.htm HOW OFTEN DO YOUR FAVORITE PLAYERS HIT HOMERS?


http://www.athomeplate.com/coorsfield1.shtml HOW DOES COORS FIELD COMPARE TO ARLINGTON?

http://athomeplate.com/coorsfield2.shtml HOW WILL THE HOME PARK CHANGE EFFECT AROD AND SORIANO.


http://www.athomeplate.com/theothergreatone.shtml BABE RUTH V. BARRY BONDS...THE BEST EVER?

http://www.athomeplate.com/griffey.shtml THE FORGOTTEN SUPERSTAR...KEN GRIFFEY JR.

http://www.athomeplate.com/bondsibb.shtmlhttp://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Flowers_BondsIBBHistory.htm
THE HISTORY OF THE IBB, AND THE PLIGHT OF BARRY BONDS.


PITCHING STORIES

http://www.athomeplate.com/ray300wins.shtml THE DEMISE OF THE 300 GAME WINNER?


http://www.athomeplate.com/jschmidt.shtml THE BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL IS JASON SCHMIDT


http://athomeplate.com/alltimefanpitchers.shtml THE BEST FANTASY SEASONS OF THE PAST 20 YEARS BY PITCHERS.


http://www.athomeplate.com/swip.shtml
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_SWIPorWHIP.htm
SWIP vs. WHIP, a reveiw of a "new" stat to measure a pitchers effectiveness. SWIP takes into account a pitchers strikeouts and walks to derive a formula that expressess his individual effectiveness.



http://www.athomeplate.com/websavesteam.shtml
DO SAVES COME FROM TEAMS WITH WINNING RECORDS?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_QualityStarts.htm QUALITY STARTS...ARE THEY REALLY QUALITY?


http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Ray_NolanRyanRobbed.htm PICTHERS WINNING % VERSUS THEIR TEAMS LACK OF SUCCESS.

http://www.athomeplate.com/inheritedrunners.shtml THE VALUE OF STRANDING INHERITED RUNNERS

FANTASY BASEBALL STORIES

http://rototimes.com/index.php?sport=bsball&type=misc&name=F20040701165836
CARLOS BELTRAN'S TRADE TO HOUSTON.

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_BuySell2.htm WHO TO BUY IN FANTASY BASEBALL JUNE 27, 2004

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_BuySell.htm WHO TO SELL JUNE 27, 2004


http://www.athomeplate.com/julyallstars.shtml JULY FANTASY ALL STARS

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_BallsInPlay.htm BALLS IN PLAY AVERAGE (BIP)

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_PickingNames2.htm
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_PickingNames.htm IS PICKING THE "NAME" ALWAYS THE BEST MOVE?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Rookie%20Hype.htm ROOKIE HYPE, SHOULD YOU BITE?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_27yrMVP.htm 27 IS 27 REALLY THE MAGIC AGE FOR PLAYERS?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_StealValue.htm SHOULD WE COUNT SB DIFFERENTELY?


http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_KnowingRules.htm
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_KnowingRules2.htm KNOWING THE VALUE OF STATS AND HOW THEY EFFECT YOUR TEAM PART I Offense,
PART II Pitching.

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Troubles.htm
TROUBLES, a new stat for fantasy baseball (2B and 3B)

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_CatchersERA.htm CATCHERS ERA


FRIENDS LINKS

http://www.drafthelp.com/BaseballMain.htm DRAFTHELP.COM, THE PLACE FOR FANTASY ANALYSIS

http://www.athomeplate.com ATHOMEPLATE.COM, THE PLACE FOR BASEBALL DISCUSSION FROM THE FANTASY GAME TO HISTORICAL ANALYSIS


http://danagonistes.blogspot.com
FELLOW SABR MEMBER DAN FOX WRITES AN INTERSTING BLOG ON BASEBALL WITH IN DEPTH ANALYSIS, BE SURE TO GIVE IT A PEEK.

http://baseballwriting.blogspot.com/
Joe is a self descibed North East guy who often has great tidbits to offer.

http://letstalkaboutsports.blogspot.com/
MATT PINKOS SITE IS A GREAT PLACE TO READ SOME PASSIONATE WRITING ABOUT BASEBALL, AND "HIS" TEAM, THE WORLD CHAMPION BoSOX

SWIP 2004 - Season in Review

SWIP, defined as K-BB/IP, was created to measure the effectiveness of a pitcher irrespective of the myriad of other factors that contribute to a pitchers success. Mirroring WHIP, SWIP attempts to relate the two major results of an at-bat that a pitcher can directly effect (BB and K...we leave out HBP just as WHIP does). For a more detailed description of SWIP see:

Here is the listing of SWIP for all pitchers who threw over 162 innings in 2004.

MLB 2004 SWIP

R. Johnson, Ari 1.00
B. Sheets, Mil 0.98
J. Santana, Min 0.93
O. Perez, Pit 0.81
J. Schmidt, SF 0.77
P. Martinez, Bos 0.76
C. Schilling, Bos 0.74
J. Peavy, SD 0.72
R. Clemens, Hou 0.65
C. Carpenter, StL 0.63
M. Clement, ChC 0.62
R. Oswalt, Hou 0.61
F. Garcia, CWS/Sea 0.57
G. Maddux, ChC 0.56
K. Escobar, Ana 0.55
B. Radke, Min 0.53
B. Arroyo, Bos 0.53
J. Bonderman, Det 0.52
C. Zambrano, ChC 0.51
A. Eaton, SD 0.51
J. Wright, Atl 0.48
J. Lieber, NYY 0.48
M. Buehrle, CWS 0.47
R. Harden, Oak 0.45
J. Vazquez, NYY 0.45
N. Robertson, Det 0.45
C. Lee, Cle 0.45
O. Perez, LA 0.43
E. Milton, Phi 0.43
J. Lackey, Ana 0.42
D. Davis, Mil 0.42
B. Colon, Ana 0.42
D. Wells, SD 0.41
J. Thomson, Atl 0.41
C. Pavano, Fla 0.41
L. Hernandez, Mon 0.40
T. Lilly, Tor 0.40
D. Willis, Fla 0.40
J. Weaver, LA 0.39
J. Contreras, CWS/NYY 0.39
W. Williams, StL 0.39
B. Zito, Oak 0.38
M. Morris, StL 0.37
K. Benson, NYM/Pit 0.36
C. Sabathia, Cle 0.36
D. May, KC 0.35
J. Lima, LA 0.35
J. Marquis, StL 0.34
J. Johnson, Det 0.33
B. Lawrence, SD 0.33
T. Hudson, Oak 0.31
C. Lidle, Cin/Phi 0.31
J. Moyer, Sea 0.31
B. Myers, Phi 0.31
P. Wilson, Cin 0.29
K. Rogers, Tex 0.28
T. Wakefield, Bos 0.28
J. Westbrook, Cle 0.26
M. Mulder, Oak 0.25
J. Suppan, StL 0.24
B. Tomko, SF 0.23
M. Maroth, Det 0.23
M. Hendrickson, TB 0.22
B. Webb, Ari 0.22
R. Franklin, Sea 0.21
S. Ponson, Bal 0.21
C. Silva, Min 0.20
R. Drese, Tex 0.19
D. Lowe, Bos 0.19
T. Glavine, NYM 0.18
K. Lohse, Min 0.18
M. Redman, Oak 0.18
J. Garland, CWS 0.17
S. Trachsel, NYM 0.17
J. Jennings, Col 0.16
R. Ortiz, Atl 0.15
M. Hampton, Atl 0.13
A. Leiter, NYM 0.12
I. Valdez, SD/Fla 0.11
B. Anderson, KC 0.10
J. Fogg, Pit 0.09
S. Estes, Col 0.06
M. Batista, Tor 0.04
K. Ishii, LA 0.01
K. Rueter, SF (0.05)


Here are some of the prominent relievers and how they faired in SWIP in 2004.

M. Gonzalez, Pit 1.14
B. Ryan, Bal 1.00
B. Donnelly, Ana 0.98
J. Rincon, Min 0.90
C. Fox, Fla 0.88
R. Betancourt, Cle 0.88
K. Calero, StL 0.82
T. Gordon, NYY 0.82
A. Otsuka, SD 0.79
D. Miceli, Hou 0.73
J. Valverde, Ari 0.72
K. Farnsworth, ChC 0.68
S. Linebrink, SD 0.68
S. Shields, Ana 0.66
B. Fuentes, Col 0.66
B. Howry, Cle 0.64
J. Walker, Det 0.64
J. Mecir, Oak 0.64
F. Francisco, Tex 0.63
J. Grabow, Pit 0.59
M. Miller, Cle 0.58
T. Miller, TB 0.57
C. Eldred, StL 0.55
T. Worrell, Phi 0.55
L. Vizcaino, Mil 0.54
D. Dreifort, LA 0.54
J. Colome, TB 0.54
L. Ayala, Mon 0.53
M. Remlinger, ChC 0.52
G. Carrara, LA 0.53

A few other relievers who didn’t make the top 30 that you might have expected to see after the seasons they had in 2004.

C. Politte, CWS 0.51
C. Reitsma, Atl 0.51
A. Embree, Bos 0.50
G. Mota, LA/Fla 0.50
M. Timlin, Bos 0.49
D. Marte, CWS 0.46
J. Tavarez, StL 0.45
J. Romero, Min 0.42
M. Herges, SF 0.28
J. Frasor, Tor 0.26

Those of dubious honor…here are the ten worst SWIP performers of 2004 (minimum 5 HOLDS).

C. Bentz, Mon -0.18
J. Lopez, Col -0.15
J. Christiansen, SF -0.11
M. Matthews, Cin -0.03
K. Gryboski, Atl 0.02
J. Lehr, Oak 0.06
J. Grimsley, Bal/KC 0.06
J. Cerda, KC 0.07
J. Riedling, Cin 0.08
T. Harikkala, Col 0.11


Since we are into 3 year trends in fantasy baseball...here are the leaders for the past three years.

MLB AVERAGE 2002-2004: 94023 K, 48357 BB, 129998 IP

lgSWIP = 0.35


STARTER LEADERS for 2002-04

Randy J 0.98
Schilling 0.94
Prior 0.88
Pedro 0.87
Santana 0.85
Schmidt 0.74
Wood 0.67
Sheets 0.66
Clemens 0.66
Ol.Perez 0.65
Beckett 0.65
Mussina 0.64
Oswalt 0.62
Vazquez 0.61
Pettitte 0.57
Clement 0.57
Burnett 0.55
Peavy 0.55
Halladay 0.52
Brown 0.52
Escobar 0.51
Millwood 0.50
Odalis Perez 0.49
F.Garcia 0.49
Wolf 0.48
Morris 0.45
Maddux 0.45
Mulder 0.40
Colon 0.40
C.Zambrano 0.40
Pavano 0.40
Webb 0.38
Hudson 0.37
Zito 0.36
Ru.Ortiz at an abysmal 0.19.

RELIEVER LEADERS 2002-2004

GAGNE 1.24
LIDGE 0.98
WAGNER 0.96
FRod ANA 0.92
DOTEL 0.91
SMOLTZ 0.87
HOFFMAN 0.85
GORDON 0.80
NATHAN 0.76
BJ RYAN 0.75
GURDADO 0.72
EMBREE 0.69
HAWKINS 0.68
IZZY 0.66
RIVERA 0.66
MARTE 0.66
FRNSWRH 0.65
URBINA 0.64
F.CORDERO 0.64
RISKE 0.63
BENITEZ 0.61
Mota 0.55
Percival 0.53
Worrell 0.46
Looper 0.40
Julio 0.39
Baez 0.37
Mesa 0.28
Graves 0.24
Kolb 0.18.