Mailbag Questions: July 28th

MAILBAG – Week 17
Contributed By: Ray Flowers of www.FantasyBaseball.com



In my keeper league, I was offered Vladimir Guerrero for Grady Sizemore, should I accept it? I really like Sizemore and he's still only 23, but is Vlad too good to pass on?
-- A.J., Colorado Springs, CO

Wow, this is huge trade in a keeper league. Since I don’t know the rules of your keeper league, I will work under the assumption that your league allows you to keep either player for three years. Let’s start with Sizemore who was a stud last year going 20/20 with 111 runs while hitting .289. This season, Sizemore has slightly increased his average (.307), power (16 HR) and SB rate (15). More impressively, Sizemore is on pace to score 133 runs this year, a monster number, partly because he has upped his OBP almost .040 points from last season (.386). And as you mentioned, Sizemore is 23-years-old, so, as they say, the sky’s the limit with this guy. But what about Vlad?

With Vlad the most important number is 30. In 7 of the last 8 years he has hit at least 30 HRs and knocked in 100 runs. Come to think of it, Vlad has also scored at least 95 runs in 7 of the last 8 years as well (in 2003 he injured his back but still hit .330-25-79, not a bad “off” year huh?). In addition, Vlad owns a career average of .323, not to mention a career OPS of .970. Sizemore might hit .323 one day, but the chance of him producing even a single season of .970 is far from certain. To summarize, in 7 of the past 8 seasons Vlad has hit at least .305-32-108-95, numbers that Sizemore might be hard-pressed to ever match in a single season. Sure he will steal more bases than Vlad at his age, but is that enough of an incentive to count on him over Vlad? Oh yeah, I forgot to mention the most important “30” of them all for Vlad; he is only 30-years-old.

As much potential as Sizemore shows, hitters like Vlad come along once every 20 years. I would do this deal if I were in your shoes, even with the age discrepancy, which as we have seen isn’t all that great. Vlad’s overall game is just too much when combined with his amazing consistency and that fact that he is only 30-years-old.


I know that Kenny Rogers stinks in the second half, and with his performance this week (7 ER, 2 outs), I need to pick up a SP off waivers. Who would you recommend out of Gil Meche, Matt Morris and John Garland?
-- Kenny

Meche (9-5, 4.19 ERA, 106 K, 1.37 WHIP) had been on a solid streak of 7 games in 9 starts allowing 2 or fewer ERs. Of course, he isn’t that good, and he got lit up the other night (7 ER) to end that steak. Meche has talent, no dispute here with that, but it has simply never translated to consistent big-league success (career 4.61 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Meche had a 1.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in June, fantastic numbers, but those numbers skyrocket to a 5.15 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in the other three months of the season, closely approximating his career numbers. He isn’t a long-term answer. Morris (8-8, 4.82 ERA, 75 K, 1.36 WHIP), like Meche, was great in June (3-1, 2.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and has been pretty terrible the rest of the time (5-7, 5.86 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Morris isn’t the answer here either.

That leaves us with last year’s darling, Garland (10-3, 4.78 ERA, 63 K, 1.36 WHIP). On the surface the numbers of all three of these pitchers are very similar. However, we have shown that Morris and Meche are really the products of their righteous June performances. Garland on the other hand has gotten better as the season has worn on going 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP since June 1st. Sure, Garland will probably post fewer Ks than the other two hurlers, but with his recent hot trend, combined with the fact that he is on the strongest team in the White Sox (that is if they start winning again), the best bet at this point is Garland.


I was wondering what you thought of this trade offered to me. I get: Corey Patterson and Austin Kearns. I give up: Ryan Howard. I have Morneau at 1B, Howard has been my UT, and my current OF is S. Green, G. Matthews, Carlos Lee and D. Roberts. Your thoughts?
-- James, Brookfield, IL

I could see the need to improve your OF here, I would agree with that assessment. However, I wouldn’t suggest accepting this offer. With Morneau at 1B and Howard at UT, who is better than you in your league at those two spots? Howard (.282-32-80-51-0) has been great, though that is not to say I don’t have concerns about him considering he is second in baseball with 110 Ks and his batting average has gone down every month this season. Howard also has only 40 BB on the season, 33 less than Adam Dunn, the only man with more K’s than Howard this year (115). In addition, Howard has the worst GB/FB ratio (1.35) of any of he top 37 HR hitters in baseball, so there should still be some concern with Howard despite all the bombs he hits.

The two OFs you would be getting come with their own concerns. Patterson (.282-10-37-48-32) has been an amazing find this season, especially with those career-high tying 32 SBs. However, every player in the majors who has at least 15 SBs this year has an OBP better than Patterson’s .315 mark, so you have to figure he will either need to improve his OBP or he will simply begin to fall off in SBs (he has only 2 SBs in 19 July games). The reason is that he gets on base so infrequently that he has to steal a base around 50% of the time that he reaches first base. Also, Patterson still struggles against lefties hitting .220 against them in 85 ABs, so there is always a chance he will start to lose playing time in that situation.

Kearns (.268-17-51-56-8) has finally been injury free and with 45 ABs will record his first 400 AB season in the major leagues. The 8 SBs are nice, but his other numbers really aren’t that interesting to me nor should they be to you if you are going to be counting on him the rest of the way. Kearns’ batting average has gone down every month this year, and he is hitting just .200 since his trade to the Nationals. And therein lies another issue, his new situation in Washington. Besides moving from a great power-hitting park (Cincinnati) to one in the lower third of the league, the Nationals lineup is a mess. Alfonso Soriano will likely be traded and Jose Guillen is out for the year with TJ surgery, so depending on who they pick up at the deadline, it might just be Kearns, Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman in the middle of that lineup, and that threesome isn’t scaring anyone. So if his injury history wasn’t enough of a concern for you, his playing situation should be. Pass on this deal.


I have a handful of players that I've been shuffling in and out of my line-up that I know have talent, but just haven't produced in several weeks or more (guys like JD Drew, F. Lopez, A. Kearns, C. Shelton, and K. Youkilis). I want to be patient because it is such a long season, but what should I do with these guys? Should I pick up someone like J. Barfield, S. Drew, J. Hermida, or C. Quentin?
-- Jason, North Brunswick, NJ

The age-old question of when is enough, enough? Let’s review all the guys you mentioned, and I will give you some quick thoughts on each.

J.D. Drew (.281-9-54-47-2) – Tremendous talent, always injured. Tough to count on.
Felipe Lopez (.265-10-34-60-25) – Terrific SB total but hitting only .241 since June 1st and now on a much less potent offensive team in Washington.
Austin Kearns – See my comments above.
Chris Shelton (.272-16-44-46-1) – Has worse numbers this year than last. Should have been cut 2 months ago. Since May 1st: .252-6-24-29 in 250 ABs.
Kevin Youkilis (.296-11-47-69-5) – Hitting only .232 with a .672 OPS in 82 July ABs.

As for the free agents.

Josh Barfield (.299-5-31-44-15) – One of the leagues hottest hitters in July: .438-1-9-12-6.
Stephen Drew (.282-0-2-3-1) – Craig Counsell is still at least 2 weeks away (ribs).
Jeremy Hermida (.303-4-18-26-4) – No one has noticed, but hitting .327 since June 1st.
Carlos Quentin (.357-3-7-5-1) – One of the D’backs top prospects. The D’backs are exploring a trade of either Shawn Green or Luis Gonzalez to open up a full-time spot for Quentin.


Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.

Mailbag Questions: July 28th

MAILBAG – Week 17
Contributed By: Ray Flowers of www.FantasyBaseball.com



In my keeper league, I was offered Vladimir Guerrero for Grady Sizemore, should I accept it? I really like Sizemore and he's still only 23, but is Vlad too good to pass on?
-- A.J., Colorado Springs, CO

Wow, this is huge trade in a keeper league. Since I don’t know the rules of your keeper league, I will work under the assumption that your league allows you to keep either player for three years. Let’s start with Sizemore who was a stud last year going 20/20 with 111 runs while hitting .289. This season, Sizemore has slightly increased his average (.307), power (16 HR) and SB rate (15). More impressively, Sizemore is on pace to score 133 runs this year, a monster number, partly because he has upped his OBP almost .040 points from last season (.386). And as you mentioned, Sizemore is 23-years-old, so, as they say, the sky’s the limit with this guy. But what about Vlad?

With Vlad the most important number is 30. In 7 of the last 8 years he has hit at least 30 HRs and knocked in 100 runs. Come to think of it, Vlad has also scored at least 95 runs in 7 of the last 8 years as well (in 2003 he injured his back but still hit .330-25-79, not a bad “off” year huh?). In addition, Vlad owns a career average of .323, not to mention a career OPS of .970. Sizemore might hit .323 one day, but the chance of him producing even a single season of .970 is far from certain. To summarize, in 7 of the past 8 seasons Vlad has hit at least .305-32-108-95, numbers that Sizemore might be hard-pressed to ever match in a single season. Sure he will steal more bases than Vlad at his age, but is that enough of an incentive to count on him over Vlad? Oh yeah, I forgot to mention the most important “30” of them all for Vlad; he is only 30-years-old.

As much potential as Sizemore shows, hitters like Vlad come along once every 20 years. I would do this deal if I were in your shoes, even with the age discrepancy, which as we have seen isn’t all that great. Vlad’s overall game is just too much when combined with his amazing consistency and that fact that he is only 30-years-old.


I know that Kenny Rogers stinks in the second half, and with his performance this week (7 ER, 2 outs), I need to pick up a SP off waivers. Who would you recommend out of Gil Meche, Matt Morris and John Garland?
-- Kenny

Meche (9-5, 4.19 ERA, 106 K, 1.37 WHIP) had been on a solid streak of 7 games in 9 starts allowing 2 or fewer ERs. Of course, he isn’t that good, and he got lit up the other night (7 ER) to end that steak. Meche has talent, no dispute here with that, but it has simply never translated to consistent big-league success (career 4.61 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Meche had a 1.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in June, fantastic numbers, but those numbers skyrocket to a 5.15 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in the other three months of the season, closely approximating his career numbers. He isn’t a long-term answer. Morris (8-8, 4.82 ERA, 75 K, 1.36 WHIP), like Meche, was great in June (3-1, 2.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and has been pretty terrible the rest of the time (5-7, 5.86 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Morris isn’t the answer here either.

That leaves us with last year’s darling, Garland (10-3, 4.78 ERA, 63 K, 1.36 WHIP). On the surface the numbers of all three of these pitchers are very similar. However, we have shown that Morris and Meche are really the products of their righteous June performances. Garland on the other hand has gotten better as the season has worn on going 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP since June 1st. Sure, Garland will probably post fewer Ks than the other two hurlers, but with his recent hot trend, combined with the fact that he is on the strongest team in the White Sox (that is if they start winning again), the best bet at this point is Garland.


I was wondering what you thought of this trade offered to me. I get: Corey Patterson and Austin Kearns. I give up: Ryan Howard. I have Morneau at 1B, Howard has been my UT, and my current OF is S. Green, G. Matthews, Carlos Lee and D. Roberts. Your thoughts?
-- James, Brookfield, IL

I could see the need to improve your OF here, I would agree with that assessment. However, I wouldn’t suggest accepting this offer. With Morneau at 1B and Howard at UT, who is better than you in your league at those two spots? Howard (.282-32-80-51-0) has been great, though that is not to say I don’t have concerns about him considering he is second in baseball with 110 Ks and his batting average has gone down every month this season. Howard also has only 40 BB on the season, 33 less than Adam Dunn, the only man with more K’s than Howard this year (115). In addition, Howard has the worst GB/FB ratio (1.35) of any of he top 37 HR hitters in baseball, so there should still be some concern with Howard despite all the bombs he hits.

The two OFs you would be getting come with their own concerns. Patterson (.282-10-37-48-32) has been an amazing find this season, especially with those career-high tying 32 SBs. However, every player in the majors who has at least 15 SBs this year has an OBP better than Patterson’s .315 mark, so you have to figure he will either need to improve his OBP or he will simply begin to fall off in SBs (he has only 2 SBs in 19 July games). The reason is that he gets on base so infrequently that he has to steal a base around 50% of the time that he reaches first base. Also, Patterson still struggles against lefties hitting .220 against them in 85 ABs, so there is always a chance he will start to lose playing time in that situation.

Kearns (.268-17-51-56-8) has finally been injury free and with 45 ABs will record his first 400 AB season in the major leagues. The 8 SBs are nice, but his other numbers really aren’t that interesting to me nor should they be to you if you are going to be counting on him the rest of the way. Kearns’ batting average has gone down every month this year, and he is hitting just .200 since his trade to the Nationals. And therein lies another issue, his new situation in Washington. Besides moving from a great power-hitting park (Cincinnati) to one in the lower third of the league, the Nationals lineup is a mess. Alfonso Soriano will likely be traded and Jose Guillen is out for the year with TJ surgery, so depending on who they pick up at the deadline, it might just be Kearns, Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman in the middle of that lineup, and that threesome isn’t scaring anyone. So if his injury history wasn’t enough of a concern for you, his playing situation should be. Pass on this deal.


I have a handful of players that I've been shuffling in and out of my line-up that I know have talent, but just haven't produced in several weeks or more (guys like JD Drew, F. Lopez, A. Kearns, C. Shelton, and K. Youkilis). I want to be patient because it is such a long season, but what should I do with these guys? Should I pick up someone like J. Barfield, S. Drew, J. Hermida, or C. Quentin?
-- Jason, North Brunswick, NJ

The age-old question of when is enough, enough? Let’s review all the guys you mentioned, and I will give you some quick thoughts on each.

J.D. Drew (.281-9-54-47-2) – Tremendous talent, always injured. Tough to count on.
Felipe Lopez (.265-10-34-60-25) – Terrific SB total but hitting only .241 since June 1st and now on a much less potent offensive team in Washington.
Austin Kearns – See my comments above.
Chris Shelton (.272-16-44-46-1) – Has worse numbers this year than last. Should have been cut 2 months ago. Since May 1st: .252-6-24-29 in 250 ABs.
Kevin Youkilis (.296-11-47-69-5) – Hitting only .232 with a .672 OPS in 82 July ABs.

As for the free agents.

Josh Barfield (.299-5-31-44-15) – One of the leagues hottest hitters in July: .438-1-9-12-6.
Stephen Drew (.282-0-2-3-1) – Craig Counsell is still at least 2 weeks away (ribs).
Jeremy Hermida (.303-4-18-26-4) – No one has noticed, but hitting .327 since June 1st.
Carlos Quentin (.357-3-7-5-1) – One of the D’backs top prospects. The D’backs are exploring a trade of either Shawn Green or Luis Gonzalez to open up a full-time spot for Quentin.


Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.

First- Half All-Stars

Contributed By: Ray Flowers of www.FantasyBaseball.com

With the all-star break wrapping up, I thought it would be appropriate to skip the mailbag this week and to spend some time detailing my first-half all-stars. Now these al-star lists are all over the place, so you’re probably sick of reading them, so I thought I would tweak things a bit. My all-star list is not a rendering of the best players in fantasy baseball. My list is a rendering of the out-of-nowhere all-stars of the first half. You know, the guys who you were “forced” to draft in the 23rd round of your draft because there was no one left. The guy who you grabbed because he played for your home team. Or the guy you drafted because he bares a slight resemblance to you and your significant other thought he was cute. Basically, these are the players that no one predicted much success for entering the 2006 season, but as we look back on the first half these guys have been difference makers.


First-Half, Out of Nowhere, All-Stars

1B Kevin Youkilis, BOS (.297-10-43-60-5)
The “Greek God of Walks”, as dubbed by A’s GM Billy Beane, has 55 BB through 88 games leading to a .407 OBP, the 15th best mark in baseball. Because of his ability to get on base, Youkilis has spent the majority of the season in the Red Sox leadoff spot and has scored 60 runs, the 23rd highest mark in baseball. Not bad for a guy with 287 career at-bats entering the season

2B Brandon Phillips, CIN (.306-7-44-42-16)
Don’t lie, you didn’t even have him on your draft list did you (I didn’t)? Phillips wasn’t even on a major league roster at the start of the season, though after his 17 RBIs in 7 games in April, someone surely picked him up. After 22 RBIs in April, he has just 22 in his last 218 at-bats, but his overall numbers are still stellar, especially that .306 average and those 16 SBs which are golden coming from a waiver-wire pickup.

3B Freddy Sanchez, PIT (.358-5-49-50-1)
As I wrote last week, this guy has been flat out amazing. He has suited up for 54 games at 3B, 14 at SS and 7 at 2B (he also played 58 games at 2B last year). Sanchez is hitting .3581, just barely behind Nomar Garciaparra’s .3582 for the NL lead.

SS Jamey Carroll, COL (.324-3-19-46-5)
I could have listed Orlando Cabrera who is coming off a streak of reaching base in 63 straight games (the longest streak since 1960), but Cabrera was drafted in most leagues whereas Carroll, I would venture, wasn’t drafted in a single 12-team mixed league in the country. Carroll is hitting .404 against lefties in 57 at-bats, and is hitting an equally impressive .383 at home in Coors Field.

C Josh Bard, SD (.369-5-20-17-0)
Bard was nothing more than an after thought this year. After only 7 games in Boston where he unsuccessfully attempted to catch Tim Wakefield, Bard was sent back to San Diego in a trade for Doug Mirabelli. Bard has hit like crazy when he has been in the lineup even posting a .997 OPS in limited appearances (130 ABs). Mike Redman is also worthy of mention here since he is hitting .357, meaning that Twins catchers are hitting a combined .372 (Joe Mauer is hitting .378).

OF Alexis Rios, TOR (.330-15-53-46-9)
Rios already has a career-high in HR, and is working on career bests in AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS. In particular, the OPS improvement really jumps off the page. In his career prior to this season his OPS was .711, while this year it’s .968. His leg injury makes his status for the rest of the way highly uncertain, but that doesn’t effect his spectacular performance thus far.

OF Gary Matthews Jr., TEX (.328-10-47-47-5)
Matthews has never hit over .276, knocked in more than 55 runs or scored more than 72 in a season. He is on pace to destroy all of those totals this year. The big difference for Matthews has been playing time as he is on pace for his first 500 AB season. It’s worth noting that Matthews entered the season with a career OBP of .327, and his batting average this season is .328 (with a .374 OBP).

OF Reed Johnson, TOR (.365-4-21-52-8)
Only 23 men who have ever played have scored over 100 runs in fewer than 425 at-bats, and Johnson is on pace to be the 24th this season. Johnson is hitting .333 vs. lefties, .394 vs. righties and .388 since June 1st. So tell me, why he isn’t in the lineup every day?

SP Bronson Arroyo, CIN (9-6, 3.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP with 98 K in 130 IP)
Arroyo went from being a 5th starter/long reliever in Boston to a hitters paradise in Cincinnati and he has somehow excelled. Arroyo has been bombed his last two starts giving up 11 runs in 11.1 IP, not to mention 21 baserunners, but overall his numbers are fantastic. Arroyo is 6th in the NL in ERA, 7th in WHIP and 11th in K, all of this from a pitcher with a career 4.59 ERA and 1.36 WHIP entering 2006.

SP Justin Verlander, DET (10-4, 3.01 ERA, 69 K, 1.17 WHIP)
Verlander threw career-high 129.2 innings last season so his 110.2 first half innings are a slight concern. However, Verlander’s performance thus far has been brilliant with the 3rd best win total in the AL, the 5th best ERA and the 10th best WHIP. While he does own a decent 2.09 K/BB ratio, how is it that a guy who consistently throws over 95 mph averages only 5.6 K/9IP?

SP Brad Penny, LAD (10-2, 2.91 ERA, 82 K, 1.21 WHIP)
Penny is always an injury risk and because of those injuries he won only 16 games the past two years. Penny is healthy this year, and now he even started the all-star game. Penny hasn’t thrown 200 innings since 2001, he has thrown 108.1 innings thus far, and his WHIP over his last 295.2 IP is a solid 1.25.

SP Kenny Rogers, DET (11-3, 3.85 ERA, 65 K, 1.19 WHIP)
Uh, this one makes no sense at all. Well it sort of does. Rogers is strong in the first half, he is 22-7 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last two years, before he collapses in the second half (10-10, 5.11 ERA, 1.57 WHIP). Will the trend continue this year?

SP Tom Glavine, Mets (11-2, 3.48 ERA, 82 K, 1.32 WHIP in 119 IP)
Glavine enters the break with 11 wins after his previous three relatively unsuccessful seasons in NY when he earned 9,11 and 13 wins. Glavine also has 82 Ks after averaging 99 the past three season’s, a strange development for a 40-year-old. Glavine has slowed tremendously in his last 46 IP with a 4.89 ERA and 1.67 despite a 3-0 record.

RP Darren Oliver, NYM (3-0, 2.15 ERA, 36 K, 0.97 WHIP in 50.1 IP)
Olive is one of the reasons the Mets are where they are, and NO ONE would have predicted that. This is a man who entered the season with a career ERA of 5.07 and a WHIP of 1.54 not to mention the fact that he didn’t even pitch in the major leagues last year. The only way he was drafted this year was if someone was related or they thought he was good-looking.

RP Takashi Saito, LAD (3-2, 2.14 ERA, 57 K, 0.86 WHIP with 8 SV in 42 IP)
Pitching in middle relief before being elevated to the closers role for the Dodgers, Saito has been a revelation. With a 5.2 K/BB ratio and a .172 BAA, Saito has been flat out dominant. If you remove the 5 earned runs he gave up in 1.2 IP on May 2nd and 4th his season ERA would be 1.12.

RP Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (2-1, 0.59 ERA, 47 K, 0.72 WHIP with 26 SV in 46 IP)
Papelbon has moved from being the 5th/6th starter in the Red Sox rotation to become the most dominant closer in baseball. Of all pitchers who have ever stepped on a major league hill the record for lowest ERA ever recorded in a single season by a pitcher with over 70 IP is 0.61 by Dennis Eckersley in 1990, a mark that Papelbon is currently challenging.

RP Akinori Otsuka, TEX (2-3, 2.13 ERA, 30 K, 0.92 WHIP with 17 SV in 38 IP)
After producing a decent follow up to his excellent rookie season for San Diego last year, Otsuka moved to the AL to pitch in an extreme hitters park in Texas. After Francisco Cordero struggled, Otsuka has stepped into the closers role and been amazingly efficient for the Rangers. Not bad for a player who most likely was on waivers at the start of the season.

RP J.J. Putz, SEA (1-0, 2.11 ERA, 58 K, 0.77 WHIP with 16 SV in 42.2 IP)
Thought to be no more than the 3rd option in the Mariners bullpen at the start of the season (behind Eddie Guardado and Rafael Soriano), Putz would likely be “the” story out of the bullpen if not for Papelbon. With 58 K and only 7 K, Putz has an unearthly 8.3 K/BB ratio while averaging 12.2 K per 9 IP. What does a guy need to do to make the all-star team?


Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.