WILD PITCH

Mailbag, July 5th, 2007

2007-07-12T14:08:00.000-07:00

Fantasy Fandom, July 5th, 2007
Contributed By: Ray Flowers of BaseballGuys.com

FANTASY MAILBAG

Quick question. If you had to make the call on the following deal, which side would you rather be on? Andrew Jones or Michael Cuddyer?
-- Shawn, Seattle

Who would have thought four months ago that this would be a valid question? Andruw Jones has been horrible almost from day 1 producing arguably the worst overall numbers of his career. Jones, hitting .201-14-48-38-3, has a massive 87 Ks in 83 games with a .176 average in day games and an identical .176 mark since May 1st, a span of 58 games. This is no longer a slump, it’s way beyond that. Jones owns career average of .263 but his unseemly .201 mark is simply atrocious. Though Jones is still on pace for 25+ HRs and 90+ RBIs, he averaged 46 HRs and 129 RBIs the past two seasons so his owners might be close to pulling back on a bottle of vodka to dull the pain. Less HRs, RBIs, runs scored (he is on pace for his worst total since 1997) and that average mark him as the modern day Rob Deer. How scary is that?

Michael Cuddyer on the other hand is enjoying a strong season (.280-9-51-55-3). Hitting 4th in the Twins lineup, Cuddyer is on pace for a second straight 100 RBI, 100 run season, something, shockingly, Jones hasn’t done sine 2000-01. Cuddyer currently has more runs (17), hits (22), RBIs (3) with a higher average (.079 points), OBP (.067 points), SLG% (.048 points) and OPS (.116) than Jones though amazingly Jones still holds the advantage in HRs (14 to 9). Regardless, Cuddyer has been the more consistent and overall stronger performer, so if it was me, I would prefer Cuddyer at this point since 83 games with a .201 average just scares the hell out of me.

I have Ken Griffey, Carlos Lee, Carl Crawford, and Corey Hart as my OFs and Rafael Furcal as my shortstop. I was offered a trade of J.J. Hardy for Crawford. My gut reaction is to say no, hoping that Furcal will actually start playing better. Should I try and get more for Crawford?
-- Jeff, Mesquite, TX.

You should absolutely ask for much, much more for Carl Crawford than J.J. Hardy no matter how strong your OF is. Crawford (.286-6-51-44-21) is a top-10 talent despite a less than superb first half. Still, he is on pace for a career-high in RBI (previously 81), and he should still steal 40+ bases by the time the season is complete. Those SBs are just too hard to give away when you consider the fact that unlike some other speedsters, Crawford contributes in other categories. Crawford has been cold at the plate of late but as recently as June 24th he was hitting .303, so don’t make the mistake of just looking at his overall batting average and being disappointed.

I have written about Hardy a couple of times this year, and just as common sense had predicted, he has slowed dramatically despite great overall numbers (.283-18-52-48-0). In another case of ‘don’t be fooled by overall numbers’, Hardy has only 3 HRs in his last 29 games and even worse just 6 RBIs in his last 23 outings. He is also hitting only just .233 over his last 23 games, so even though his overall numbers are tremendous, he hasn’t been worthy of starting for over a month. Hardy will be lucky to be a top-10 SS the rest of the way whereas Crawford could easily be a top-10 overall performer. Add to that the fact that Rafael Furcal has been slightly more valuable than Hardy since June 1st (.244-2-13-17-4) and that he, unlike Hardy, has been an all-star caliber talent for years, and you are better off going with Furcal at SS anyway. Go with your gut and pass on this offer.

SABERMETRIC ALLEY
Truth be told, there are quite a few metrics that may not be classified as “new” but might be new to the general reader. The reason for this is basically we only know that which we are exposed to. Each week we will look at one metric or idea that can be added to your “toolbox” of knowledge to help you capture your leagues championship crown through a simple explanation of what it measures.

COMPENENT ERA - DIFFERENCE
Last week we discussed Component ERA or ERC (see: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/fantasy/06/29/fantasy.fandom/1.html). This week, we will build upon that discussion by talking about a concept that plays directly off the idea of ERC, and that is ERC Difference.

Just what is ERC Difference? Simply put it is the difference between the actual ERA and the ERC of a pitcher. By measuring the difference, we can find out which pitchers may be pitching “lucky” and which pitchers may have had poor luck thus far (of course there are many factors involved here, but for space reasons, let’s just go with the supposition that this statement is true). The pitchers who have been “lucky” could very easily see a correction in their ERA in the second half with the resulting number being higher. Conversely, those pitching in “poor luck” right now could see their ERA’s move down in the second half of the season.

There are 92 MLB pitchers who have thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title (1 IP per game, or 162 for a full season). These are the pitchers that we will review here. So let’s jump right in.

Chris Young has an ERA of 2.00, tied with Brad Penny for the best mark in baseball. Young’s ERC mark happens to be 2.08. That means that Young currently has an ERA that is 0.08 better than what ERC estimates that number should be. Here is the obvious equation that we are using:

ERC DIFFERENCE = ERA - ERC

Another way to say this would be to say that Young has been slightly “lucky” this season (.08 worth). So, any pitcher who has an ERA that is below his ERC mark could be considered a bit lucky. Here are those pitchers who have experienced the most “luck” according to ERC Difference through July 4th, and are candidates to see their ERA’s rise in the second half if their “luck” runs out.

ERA ERC DIFF.
Doug Davis 4.29 5.99 -1.70
Mike Maroth 5.08 6.36 -1.28
Zach Duke 5.79 6.94 -1.15
Livan Hernandez 4.54 5.55 -1.01
Chuck James 3.96 4.93 -.97
Scott Kazmir 4.28 5.09 -.81
Miguel Batista 4.63 5.31 -.68
Chad Gaudin 2.92 3.57 -.65
Matt Morris 3.25 3.86 -.61
David Wells 4.16 4.77 -.61

A quick look at this list should make you very nervous if these are names that are currently on your roster. Three of the pitchers might surprise you considering the fact that they all have ERA’s below 4.00 (Chuck James, Chad Gaudin and Matt Morris). The others, besides Scott Kazmir, are all borderline control type pitchers who you would have to figure might see some peaks and valleys over the course of a season.

However, this isn’t the end of the discussion. If you want to make ERC Difference even more relevant, it would be beneficial to place it in context. What do I mean by that? Well, even if Gaudin sees his ERA total even out in the second half and it approaches his current ERC mark of 3.57, his ERA would still be just 3.57 or 1.20 runs below the number the ERC mark of David Wells (4.77). However, wouldn’t you still rather have Gaudin in this scenario even if his ERA could adjust by a larger margin than Wells the rest of the way (-.65 compared to -.61) since Gaudin’s ERA will still be much lower than Wells’ mark if things hold? Let me illustrate with a clear example.

PITCHER A has a 1.00 ERA and improves by 10% to .90
PITCHER B has a 10.00 ERA and improves 10% to 9.00

PITCHER B improved by one full run whereas PITCHER A improved by only .10 a run making it appear like PITCHER B improved more. In reality, they both improved by the same 10% mark, it’s just that PITCHER B was so bad to start with that his 10% improvement seems greater without putting it in context. Therefore, we need to place the ERC Difference in context, and in order to do that we simple divide a pitcher’s ERA by his ERC mark.

David Wells = ERA/ ERC
= 4.16/4.77
ERC Difference = 0.87

Wells ERA is actually 13% lower than it should be signaling that a possible rise is in the cards if things “even out” (.87-1.00 = .-13 or 13% below average).

Simply put, if a pitcher has the exact ERA that he should according to ERC his adjusted ERC Difference mark, or ERC+, would be 1.00 (4.16/4.16 as an example). An ERC+ under 1.00 is poor meaning that the pitchers ERA could rise, while an ERC+ above 1.00 is good meaning that his ERA could go down if all other factors remain constant. Here are the pitchers who have been the luckiest so far and are solid bets to see their actual ERA’s rise in the second half.

ERA ERC ERC+
Doug Davis 4.29 5.99 .72
Mike Maroth 5.08 6.36 .80
Chuck James 3.96 4.93 .80
Chad Gaudin 2.92 3.57 .82
Livan Hernandez 4.54 5.55 .82
Brad Penny 2.00 2.41 .83
Zach Duke 5.79 6.94 .83
Scott Kazmir 4.28 5.09 .84
Matt Morris 3.25 3.86 .84
Gil Meche 3.26 3.78 .86

So what this chart shows us is that Livan Hernandez’s actual ERA is 18% lower than it should be according to ERC (.82-1.00 = 0.18) whereas Gaudin’s is also 18% lower despite the fact that his actual ERA is over a run and a half lower (2.92 compared to 4.54). Each pitcher’s ERA is 18% “better” than it should be but even if each pitchers ERA evens out, Livan Hernandez is certainly not the pitcher you want on your team considering the fact that his ERA could be almost two full runs higher than Gaudin (5.55 to 3.57).

Here are the pitchers who could see an improvement in their ERA in the second half if their luck improves (of course, this assumes that hey continue to pitch to the levels that they currently are).

ERA ERC ERC+
Jeremy Guthrie 2.63 1.89 1.39
Ted Lilly 3.84 2.86 1.34
Josh Beckett 3.38 2.62 1.29
Joe Blanton 3.09 2.43 1.27
Javier Vazquez 3.70 2.97 1.25
James Shields 3.76 3.04 1.24
Roy Halladay 4.27 3.51 1.22
Dave Bush 5.11 4.24 1.21
Aaron Harang 3.84 3.19 1.20
Kip Wells 6.06 5.07 1.20

In the end all we are doing here is predicting possible outcomes based on a very small amount of evidence so our “conclusions” could end up being off. In order to form a more sound opinion on a pitchers possible performance the rest of the season we will need more data. To this end, we will try to accumulate another piece of the puzzle next week.

SHORT HOPS

Did you know that Babe Ruth’s career HR total is actually 715 and not 714? The reason for this is that prior to 1920 a “walk off” home run, if it created a winning margin of more than one run, was credited only as whatever hit would have produced the wining run. Therefore, on July 8,1918, Babe Ruth’s “walk off” HR was only credited as a triple. However, his HR total still stands at 714 because MLB has decided to maintain the integrity of its records by allowing the ruling that was rendered to “stand” regardless of whether or not the rules were changed later.

Barry Bonds set the all-time single season HR record in 2001 with 73, but did you know that despite all those homers he still finished 12 extra-base hits behind Babe Ruth’s single season record of 119 set in 1921?

Often overlooked in a spectacular career was the fact that Hank Aaron had 15 different seasons with at least 100 runs, the most such seasons in history.

Known as a singles hitter by most casual fans, where you aware that Ty Cobb finished in the top-10 in OPS a record 20 times during his career (tied with Cap Anson)? In fact, his lifetime OPS of .945 is the 25th best of all-time for batters with at least 5000 plate appearances. To compare, Ken Griffey Jr. has an OPS of .932 despite out-homering Cobb 585 to 117.

Ray Flowers, a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) and the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), can be reached with comments and questions at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com. To read more of Ray’s work visit www.Baseballguys.com.

2006 SWIP LEADERS

2007-02-13T17:53:00.000-08:00

SWIP = (K- BB) / IP

To read the full article go to www.sportsgrumblings.com.

Here are the 2006 SWIP Leaders (min. 75 IP).

SWIP
1.16 J.J. Putz
1.07 Takashi Saito
0.99 Ben Sheets
0.93 Francisco Liriano
0.91 Brad Lidge
0.85 Johan Santana
0.84 Jonathan Broxton
0.77 Scott Kazmir
0.76 Curt Schilling
0.76 Jake Peavy
0.74 Pedro Martínez
0.73 Cole Hamels
0.70 Bob Howry
0.69 Mike Mussina
0.69 Francisco Cordero
0.68 Scot Shields
0.68 Aaron Harang
0.67 John Smoltz
0.67 Adam Wainwright
0.66 C.C. Sabathia
0.66 Joel Zumaya
0.64 Jeremy Bonderman
0.64 Roger Clemens
0.64 Kevin Gregg
0.64 Brett Myers
0.64 Chris Carpenter
0.63 Orlando Hernández
0.63 Javier Vázquez
0.61 Dave Bush
0.61 Scott Linebrink
0.61 Félix Hernández
0.61 Jimmy Gobble
0.60 Boof Bonser
0.59 Joaquín Benoit
0.59 Dan Haren
0.59 Mariano Rivera
0.59 Jered Weaver
0.58 A.J. Burnett
0.58 Roy Oswalt
0.57 Chris Capuano
0.55 Scott Baker
0.55 Jesse Crain
0.55 Jon Rauch
0.55 Scott Proctor
0.55 Randy Johnson
0.55 Matt Capps
0.54 Brandon Webb
0.54 John Lackey
0.53 Chris Young
0.53 James Shields
0.52 Erik Bedard
0.52 Aaron Heilman
0.51 Rich Hill
0.51 Kelvim Escobar
0.51 Ian Snell
0.50 Andy Pettitte
0.50 Scott Olsen
0.50 Bronson Arroyo
0.50 Brad Penny
0.48 Kevin Millwood
0.48 Matt Cain
0.48 Darren Oliver
0.47 Jason Schmidt
0.45 Shawn Camp
0.45 Jon Lieber
0.45 Héctor Carrasco
0.45 Roy Halladay
0.45 Anthony Reyes
0.44 Carlos Zambrano
0.44 Byung-Hyun Kim
0.44 Geoff Geary
0.43 Ted Lilly
0.43 Juan Cruz
0.43 Vicente Padilla
0.43 Brandon McCarthy
0.42 Claudio Vargas
0.42 Todd Coffey
0.42 John Maine
0.42 Cory Lidle
0.42 Kyle Lohse
0.42 Brett Tomko
0.41 Ricky Nolasco
0.41 Josh Johnson
0.41 Ryan Dempster
0.41 Josh Beckett
0.41 Rodrigo López
0.40 José Contreras
0.40 Scott Downs
0.40 Freddy García
0.40 Odalis Pérez
0.39 Elmer Dessens
0.39 Gil Meche
0.38 Elizardo Ramírez
0.38 Greg Maddux
0.38 Taylor Buchholz
0.38 Chan Ho Park
0.38 Brandon Claussen
0.37 Chuck James
0.37 Esteban Loaiza
0.36 Ryan Madson
0.36 Salomón Torres
0.36 Daniel Cabrera
0.35 Bruce Chen
0.35 Cliff Lee
0.35 Josh Hancock
0.35 Jeff Weaver
0.35 Tom Glavine
0.35 Ervin Santana
0.35 David Wells
0.34 Dontrelle Willis
0.34 Shaun Marcum
0.34 Justin Verlander
0.34 Víctor Santos
0.34 Jon Garland
0.34 Nate Robertson
0.32 Adam Loewen
0.32 Chad Qualls
0.31 Eric Milton
0.31 Brad Radke
0.31 Derek Lowe
0.30 Oscar Villarreal
0.30 Oliver Pérez
0.30 Fernando Nieve
0.30 Enrique González
0.30 Jorge Sosa
0.29 Zach Miner
0.28 Tim Hudson
0.28 Doug Davis
0.28 Paul Byrd
0.28 Tim Wakefield
0.28 Roberto Novoa
0.27 Jamie Moyer
0.27 Jason Jennings
0.26 Ron Villone
0.26 Aaron Sele
0.26 Matt Morris
0.26 Wandy Rodríguez
0.26 Jarrod Washburn
0.26 Jake Westbrook
0.25 Luke Hudson
0.25 Woody Williams
0.25 Joe Blanton
0.25 Clay Hensley
0.25 Mark Buehrle
0.24 Casey Janssen
0.24 Jeff Francis
0.24 Barry Zito
0.23 Liván Hernández
0.23 Zach Duke
0.23 Anibal Sánchez
0.22 Mark Hendrickson
0.21 Tony Armas
0.21 Carlos Silva
0.21 Ramón Ortiz
0.21 Jon Lester
0.20 Paul Maholm
0.20 Jae Seo
0.19 Jaret Wright
0.19 Casey Fossum
0.19 Josh Fogg
0.18 Jeff Suppan
0.18 Kenny Rogers
0.18 Noah Lowry
0.17 John Thomson
0.17 Aaron Cook
0.17 Jeremy Sowers
0.17 Jason Johnson
0.16 Jorge De La Rosa
0.16 Kris Benson
0.16 Brian Moehler
0.16 Mark Mulder
0.15 Tomo Ohka
0.15 Kameron Loe
0.14 Sean Marshall
0.14 Sidney Ponson
0.14 Joel Piñeiro
0.13 Mike O'Connor
0.13 Ryan Franklin
0.13 Ruddy Lugo
0.13 Miguel Batista
0.12 Jake Woods
0.12 Pedro Astacio
0.12 Tim Corcoran
0.12 Julián Tavárez
0.11 John Koronka
0.11 Chien-Ming Wang
0.11 Jason Marquis
0.10 Gustavo Chacín
0.10 Jamey Wright
0.08 Horacio Ramírez
0.08 Mark Redman
0.07 Brad Halsey
0.05 Mike Thompson
0.05 Todd Wellemeyer
0.02 Runelvys Hernández
0.01 Chad Billingsley
0.01 Steve Trachsel
0.00 Brad Hennessey
0.00 Carlos Marmol
(0.01) Kirk Saarloos
(0.01) Shawn Chacón
(0.03) Scott Elarton
(0.07) Jeremy Affeldt
(0.09) Seth McClung

2007 KEEPERS

2006-09-21T21:50:00.000-07:00

THE PAYOFF PITCH Radio Show Notes
September 22, 2006
Contributed By: Ray Flowers

LISTEN LIVE, EVERY FRIDAY, 2-3 PM, EST
OR
CATCH THE SHOW ON PODCAST @ iTUNES

1. 2007 KEEPER MADNESS - OUTFIELDERS
(First Year)

1 Delmon Young (.356-3-10-12-2) – 20/20 as soon as next year?
2 Nick Markakis (.296-16-60-69-2) - .325-14-39-40 in 62 second-half games.
3 Chris Duncan (.304-18-38-53-0 in 247 AB) – Big-time power, also plays 1B.
4 Andre Eithier (.314-11-54-50-5 in 382 AB) – Slumped in second half, still well over .300.
5 Melky Cabrera (.286-7-49-73-12) – Quietly put up a strong rookie year.
6 Jason Kubel (.247-8-26-23-2) – Next year could easily hit .275-20-75.
7 Luke Scott (.382-8-30-24-2 in 170 AB) – Hasn’t stopped hitting since called up.
8 Chris Young, ARI (.250-2-9-8-2 in 60 AB) – All-around talent is breath taking.

2. 2007 KEEPER MADNESS - PITCHERS
STARTERS (First or second year)

1 Felix Hernandez (11-14, 4.68 ERA, 165 K, 1.39 WHIP in 179 IP) – Dominant in spurts, needs consistency.
2 Jered Weaver (11-2, 2.15, 96, 1.00 in 108.2 IP) – Never let up, is it stuff or deception?
3 Matt Cain (13-10, 3.99, 168, 1.25 in 178 IP) – 2.80 ERA, 1.11 WHIP with 88 K in 86.2 second half IP.
4 Scott Olsen (12-8, 3.87, 156, 1.27 in 172 IP) – Almost a K per IP.
5 Justin Verlander (16-9, 3.63, 121, 1.32 in 181 IP) – 4.61 ERA, 1.55 WHIP in second half.
6 Ian Snell (14-10, 4.67, 166, 1.45 in 181 IP) – Almost a K per IP, shot at 15 wins.
7 Annibal Sanchez (8-3, 2.90, 65, 1.15 in 102.1 IP) – No-hitter will drive up price.
8 Chuck James (10-4, 3.62, 80, 1.24 in 107 IP) – 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA last two months.

RELIEVERS (First or second year)
1 Huston Street (4-4, 2.88, 61, 0.99 with 35 SV in 65.2 IP) – Only his second season.
2 Jonathan Papelbon (4-2, 0.92, 75, 0.78 with 35 SV in 68.1 IP) – Will he start next year?
3 Chris Ray (3-4, 2.90, 49, 1.13 with 32 SV in 62 IP) – Quiet but effective in 2nd year.
4 Joel Zumaya (6-3, 2.00, 91, 1.18 with 1 SV in 76.1 IP) – Gas, gas and more gas.
5 Adam Wainwright (2-1, 2.92, 66, 1.10 with 1 SV in 71 IP) – 2007 closer for Cards?
6 Takashi Saito (5-2, 2.25, 95, 0.92 with 19 SV in 72 IP) – Will he close next year?
7 Taylor Tankersley (2-1, 2.95, 43, 1.42 with 3 SV in 36.2 IP) – If Borowski moves, does Tank close?
8 Cal Merideth (5-1, 0.82, 31, 0.73 in 43. 2 IP) – Better ERA and WHIP than Papelbon.

3. 2007 KEEPER MADNESS - INFIELDERS

CATCHER
1 Joe Mauer (.344-11-79-81-8) – No way he repeats…right?
2 Victor Martinez (.315-16-87-75-0) - .300 hitting catchers, there are only 2 guaranteed.
3 Brian McCann (.326-21-80-56-2) – More than just that Roger Clemens HR.
4 Michael Barrett (.307-16-53-54-0) – Missed time with fight, injury.
5 Johnny Estrada (.306-11-70-43-0) – Great bounce back from 2005 struggles (.261-4-39).
Others: Russell Martin (.285-10-59-59-10) – Will he keep stealing?
Kenji Johjima (.295-17-71-57-3) – Tremendous first season.
Ronny Paulino (.318-6-53-36-0) – More power, less average next year?

FIRST BASE
1 Albert Pujols (.328-46-128-112-6) – Best all-around hitter…period.
2 Ryan Howard (.312-57-140-101-0) – Ungodly power, what about an encore?
3 Lance Berkman (.312-41-122-88-3) – Also quals. at 1B, tremendous overall hitter.
4 Justin Morneau (.325-33-125-92) – Little chance he repeats the average.
5 Mark Teixeira (.270-28-98-90-2) ) – 30 Hr, 100 RBI still isn’t that bad is it?
Others: Conor Jackson (.285-13-71-68-1 in 446 AB) – Too much discipline to fail.
Adam Lind (.375-1-5-6-0) – Hit a combined .330-24-89-63-30 with a .950 OPS
James Loney (.261-1-8-16-1) – Hit .380-8-67-64-9 in 98 games at AAA

SECOND BASE
1 Chase Utley (.300-29-92-120-13) – Best at 2B, no questions remain.
2 Rickie Weeks (.279-8-34-73-19) – 20/20 possibility with health.
3 Brian Roberts (.290-9-52-79-35) – Less power, more speed.
4 Robinson Cano (.339-11-71-55-4) – Can he win a batting title?
5 Dan Uggla (.287-26-89-103-6) – The new Jeff Kent?
Others: Kaz Matsui (.252-2-21-26-7) – Hitting .338-1-14-16-5 in 22 games w/Rockies.
Howie Kendrick (.270-3-25-21-6) - .360 hitter in minor league career. Will also qual. at 1B next year.
Chris Burke (.282-9-40-54-11) – Will Biggio be back?
Josh Barfield (.283-12-55-67-19) – Outstanding rookie season.

SHORTSTOP
1 Jose Reyes (.299-19-77-119-57) – Best fantasy player in the game?
2 Derek Jeter (.339-14-95-110-32) – Best season in years.
3 Jimmy Rollins (.275-22-73-116-36) – Just a small step below Reyes.
4 Miguel Tejada (.327-22-94-95-6) – Never stops hitting regardless of teams record.
5 Michael Young (.315-14-95-89-7) – 200 hits four straight seasons.
Others: Freddy Sanchez (.346-6-82-84-3) – Also quals at 3B, has 19 GP at 2B.
Stephen Drew (.315-4-21-22-2 in 178 AB) – Full-time job is his next season.
Hanley Ramirez (.285-13-53-112-50) – Who woulda thunk it?

THIRD BASE
1 Arod (.284-34-116-106-16) – Still the best.
2 Miguel Cabrera (.338-25-110-108-9) Moves ahead of Wright with his average.
3 David Wright (.307-24-110-90-20) – Almost identical to last year (.306-27-102-99-17).
4 Garrett Atkins (.328-27-114-108-3) – Did you realize he was that good?
5 Aramis Ramirez (.291-35-111-87-2) – Huge second half: .332-19-59-47 in 65 games.
Others: Ryan Zimmerman (.283-19-99-81-11) – 100 RBIs as a rookie?
Esteban German (.342-3-29-39-7 in 240 AB) – Also OF, why didn’t Royals play him more?
BJ Upton (.246-0-7-17-10 in 142 AB) – 2nd overall in 2002, needs to field better 12 E in 40 games.

4. RAY’s NOTES - Fantasy Factoid, How About That?
Michael Young has 206 hits this year, his fourth straight season with over 200. Since 1940 only three other batters have accomplished this feat four years in a row: Wade Boggs (7 years), Ichiro Suzuki (six) and Kirby Puckett (four).

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com.

Baseball Mailbag - August 17th

2006-08-19T12:39:00.000-07:00

Contributed By: Ray Flowers

I'm in a 16-team keeper league in which each team keeps 5 players. I need help deciding on which 5 out of the following to keep: Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, Carlos Lee, Grady Sizemore, Chad Tracy, Jon Papelbon, Ervin Santana, Jason Schmidt, and Brandon Webb. Any suggestions?
-- Ross, Chicago, IL

Here are the players in order that I would protect them.

1- Albert Pujols (.332-35-93-88-5). No reason need be given.
2- Jose Reyes (.299-14-59-98-49). Could end up the top fantasy earner this season because of the steals.
3- Grady Sizemore (.303-18-55-97-18). In a down year for the Tribe, Sizemore has not disappointed improving his AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS.
4- Carlos Lee (.294-30-89-77-14). Seven straight years of at least 24 HR and 80 RBIs, Lee has recorded at least 99 RBI the past three years.
5- ???

Chad Tracy is a fine hitter (.280-15-64-69-4), but he will only qualify at 3B next year, and he certainly hasn’t taken the next step this season. Papelbon (0.90 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 31 SV) has been spectacular but the possibility of his returning to the starting rotation coupled with his relative lack of experience would lead me to shy away. E. Santana is intriguing but his career ERA is still 4.49, and it doesn’t figure to be helped by the American League. Jason Schmidt has had a very solid bounce-back season in San Francisco (3.00 ERA,1.18 WHIP, 140 K), but he is a free-agent rumored to be heading to Seattle this offseason, and I don’t generally think the AL is a good place to be for a SP. That leaves us with Brandon Webb, the man I would protect as the 5th guy on your keeper list. Webb has been great all year going 13-4 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a stupendous 4.17 K/BB ratio. In fact, Webb has 31 BB in 24 starts this year and other than a rough month of June (0-3, 5.08 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) has been “the man” all year in Arizona. That power sinker can be flat out dominating, and that’s what you want in a keeper.

I’m an need of runs and RBIs and in order to find that I’m looking to deal Carlos Delgado and Coco Crisp for Ichiro (I have Adrian Gonzalez at 1B). I would probably drop a spot or two in HRs, but think I could make up for it in SBs and maybe runs with this deal. What do you think?
-- Joe

First things first, I would be very happy to obtain Ichiro (.324-6-37-79-34) in any deal. Second, you might be able to pull off this deal if you point out the fact that Ichiro has been horrific in August (.194-0-2 in 14 games). Perhaps his owner will panic and want to move him. Funny thing with Ichiro is that he also “struggled” in April, maybe he hates months that start with “A”, hitting .287. This means that from May-July he hit .360, and there is no reason to think he couldn’t match that number the rest of the way. Plus, that speed would likely help you move up in the SB category as you suggested.

As far as giving up Delgado you certainly are in good shape at 1B since Gonzalez has come on so unbelievably strong of late. Since June 1st, in 65 games, Gonzalez has hit .332-15-40, numbers that surpass what Delgado has done since the same date (.245-11-40). Of course, with 26 HR and 74 RBI this season Delgado is very close to his 10th straight season of 30 HR and 90 RBIs, so you would be giving up a consistent power source, but I wouldn’t have a problem with this part of the trade at this point of the season.

The other player you would be giving up is Coco Crisp (.277-6-24-48-16). Crisp has played well since the all-star break hitting .291 with 8 SBs, but really, he is nothing more than a 3rd of 4th OF whereas Ichiro is a fantasy stud. With Gonzalez to cover Delgado, and Ichiro to replace Crisp, this trade makes total sense to me.

I'm in a keeper league and my friend sent me an offer: he is offering me C. Quentin, L. Berkman and E. Bedard for my G. Sizemore. Is this the deal of the century or should I keep Sizemore due to the keeper league status?
--J-K, Orange, CA

This IS the deal of the century. I spoke of Sizemore above, and while I love that guy for what he has done as well as the potential he still has to fulfill, let’s get serious for a minute here. Quentin, a first round draft pick in 2003, is a potential stud who is playing very well in his first exposure to the majors (.250-4-17-91- in 24 games). He has played so well in fact that there are rumors that the D’Backs are still interested in moving Shawn Green through the waiver-wire process to open up a full-time spot for Quentin. He may not be an all-star in the near future, but Quentin will definitely be a quality major league OF. The other OF you would be getting is Lance Berkman who, besides qualifying at OF and 1B for next season, is challenging for the NL MVP this year (.319-32-100-67-1). Sure he doesn’t have the speed of Sizemore, but his average will match the Cleveland outfielders and his power numbers will absolutely dwarf Grady’s.

Bedard has solid overall numbers on the season (12-8, 3.81 ERA, 125 K, 1.31 WHIP), but as we have discussed here previously in this column, he has been superb of late going 7-4 with a 2.55 ERA, 89 K an a 1.06 WHIP in his last 88.1 IP. Quentin and Berkman would be enough for me to deal Sizemore at this point. Considering the fact that Bedard is being thrown in you should immediately accept this offer and hope your league doesn’t veto the deal.

If you needed to fill an OF position and these were the best free agent guys available, who would you choose: E. Byrnes, C. Blake, J. Jones, S. Green, M. Thames, M. DeRosa?
--Mathew

Well, let’s go through them.

Byrnes (.281-19-50-63-17) has been a great 5x5 performer this year as a late round grab, but he has started to really flail in August hitting .218 though he does have 4 HR in 13 games. During his career, from August 1st on, Byrnes has hit .233-13-54-82-19 in 587 ABs. While those SBs are nice that batting average is not.

Blake has had a bounce-back season of his own (.310-16-51-45-6), though he has now been injured multiple times. Currently on the DL cause of an ankle injury, Blake is out for a couple of more weeks. Combine that with the recent play of Ryan Garko (.333-2-8 in 9 games) and Shin-Soo Choo (.317-2-15-7) and Blake’s playing time could be limited even when he returns.

Jacque Jones has solid overall numbers (.277-20-59-49-6) but his play of late has been lacking to say the least since he has produced merely a .204 batting average in 30 games since the all-star break.

Shawn Green is losing some playing time to Carlos Quentin (as mentioned above), and while Green has decent numbers (.281-10-49-56-4), his power has virtually disappeared with only 2 HR in his last 37 games.

Marcus Thames has totally fallen off the map since the all-star break hitting just .176 in 22 games.

All this leaves us with the obvious choice here, Mark DeRosa, who has turned out to be this year’s super-sub (DeRosa has played in 49 games as an OF, 26 as a 2B, 6 as a SS and 1 as a 1B). If that flexibility isn’t enough of an endorsement, how about his offensive numbers of .331-12-61-64-3. It is unfathomable to me how DeRosa is a free-agent in any league at this point of the season, especially after his 15 RBI week last week. Since the all-star break DeRosa has hit .331-8-32 in 31 games, so he is a must pickup if he is still available.

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.

August Factoids

2006-08-19T12:24:00.000-07:00

Contributed By: Ray Flowers

1. Known as “Iron Man” because of his rubber arm, Joe McGinnity should have been known as “Wild Man” in 1900 when he set a single season record of 41 hit batters.

2. Known as a singles hitter by most most casual fans, where you aware that Ty Cobb finished in the 10 in OPS a record 20 times during his career (tied with Cap Anson)?

3. No one would be surprised to hear that Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth hold the all-time record with 18 seasons finishing in the leagues top 10 in HR. However, would you be surprised if you found out they were tied at 18 with a third man? Would you have guessed that man was Mel Ott?

4. Robin Roberts is a Hall of Famer, so isn’t it a bit surprising to hear that he holds the all-time record with 10 separate seasons in which he finished in the top 10 in the league in loses (tied with Early Wynn who went 300-244)? He did manage to finish his career with a 286-245 record.

5. From 1968-76 Tom Seaver struck out at least 200 batters per season. Why is that significant? Well, those 9 straight years of 200+ Ks is the longest streak in baseball history.

6. From 1908-1919 Walter Johnson had an ERA under 2.50 in every single season (a ML record 12 straight seasons). His ERA during those 12 years was 1.64.

7. From 1910-1916 Walter Johnson had an ERA below 2.00 in every season (a ML record 7 straight seasons). His ERA during those seven years was 1.56.

8. From 1903-1914 all Christy Mathewson did was win (327 Wins, 133 Loses), an average season of 27-11. In fact, he won at least 20 games in each of those 12 seasons to set the record for most consecutive 20 win seasons.

9. From 1992-2004, Barry Bonds hit at least 30 HRs in every season, a record 13 straight. During that span, Bonds averaged 47 per season.

10. Would it surprise you to learn that the record for consecutive 30 save seasons is only 8 by Trevor Hoffman (1995-2002)?

11. In 1912, Chief Wilson hit a major league record 36 triples (the 2005 ML leader, Jose Reyes, had 17). Almost as shocking as the overall number is the fact that Wilson’s second best mark in triples in a season was only 14.

12. 1931 was a good year for doubles as Earl Webb set an all-time single season record with 67. During the rest of his career, Webb’s second best mark was a paltry 30 in 1930.

13. In 1982 Rickey Henderson set a single season record with 130 SB. What is less known is that Henderson also set the all-time single season caught stealing mark that year when he was nabbed 42 times.

14. Miller Huggins fashioned himself as a basestealer stealing 20 or more bases on nine occasions. However he was the most discerning of runners. In 1914 he stole 32 bases but was caught 36 times.

15. Barry Bonds set a ML record with 120 Intentional Base on Balls in 2004. He also has the 2nd and 3rd best seasons as well (68, 61). The highest non-Bonds mark? Willie McCovey’s 45 in 1969.

16. Because he rarely takes a took a walk, Jose Reyes made a whopping 536 Outs in 2005, the 4th highest mark in baseball history (Omar Moreno had 560 Outs in 1980).

17. In 1993 Lenny Dykstra was the leadoff man for the Philadelphia Phillies batting .305-19-66-143-37. During that season he came to the plate 773 times, a major league record.

18. To say that fielders, techniques and equipment have improved over the years would be an understatement. In 2005 Edgar Renteria lead the majors with 30 errors, well off the all-time single season mark of 122 held by Herman Long (1889) and Billy Shindle (1890).

JULY FACTOIDS---HOW ABOUT THAT?

2006-08-02T09:16:00.000-07:00

1. In 1942, 41-year-old pitcher Ted Lyons starts 20 games, and hurls 20 complete games (14-6, 2.10 ERA). At the end of the season he joined the Marines.

2. Did you know that 1929 was the first year that players wore numbers on their jerseys? The team that came up with the idea? The Yankees of course (though in a twist, the Yankees game was rained out on opening day, so technically the first team to wear numbers in a game were the Cleveland Indians).

3. Five perfect games have been turned into no-hitters by errors: Walter Johnson (July 1, 1920), Bill McCahan (September 3, 1947), Dick Bosman (July 19, 1974), Jerry Reuss (June 27, 1980) and Terry Mulholland (August 15, 1990).

4. Did you know that Grover Cleveland Alexander has the record for most pitching Triple Crowns with four (W, K, ERA)?

5. Did you know that there have been two team with four starters who won 20 games in one season? Most people know of the 1971 Orioles with McNally (21 wins), Dobson, Cuellar and Palmer (20), but don’t forget the other team to have done so, the 1920 White Sox (Faber 23, L.Williams 22 and Cicotte and Kerr who won 21 each).

6. Did you know that there was once a man who pitched two complete games in one day? His name was “Iron” Joe McGinnity (apropos name huh) who accomplished the feat on August 1 1903 when he pitched both ends of a doubleheader for the NY Giants. Oh yeah…he won both games; 4-1 and 5-2.

7. Did you know that on June 23, 1917, Ernie Shore pitched a perfect game in relief of Babe Ruth (yes that Babe Ruth, when he was still a pitcher). Ruth walked the first batter of the game, then argued with the umpire, was ejected, assaulted the umpire, and was replaced by Shore. Immediately the runner tried to steal 2nd and was thrown out. Shore then retired 26 straight batters to complete the no-hitter (however the perfect game was lost because of the lead off walk). For the story see the Chicago Daily Tribune, June 24, 1917, p.A2.

8. Did you know on September 10, 1995, Greg Harris, a mustached journeyman pitcher, threw both right and left handed in the same game? He wasn’t the first pitcher to do this, Tony Mullane also accomplished the feat twice in 1892-1983.

9. Did you know that on June 12, 1970, Pirates pitcher Dock Eillis threw a no-hitter while he was wired on LSD?

10. Did you know that Joe Dimmagio’s 56 game hitting streak, the all time MLB record, wasn’t a career high? In fact, Joe D. hit in 61 straight games for the San Francisco Seals of the PCL league in 1933.

11. Did you know that the record for RBI in a game is 12, accomplished twice, once by Jim Bottomley (9-16-24) and the other time by Mark Whiten (9-7-93)?

12. Did you know Joe Sewell was the best contact hitter in major league history? He had 114 K’s…in his career…Sammy Sosa struck out 143 times in 2004! In fact, Sewell had those 114 K’s in 7,182 at bats, or one every 62.6 at bats.

13. Did you know that for one week Frank Howard was the best hitter ever? During the week of May 12-18, 1968, Howard managed to hit 10 HR over 6 games in only 20 at bats.

14. Did you know that 2 batting titles have been won by players who hit zero HR? Zack Wheat hit .335 in 1918, while Rod Carew hit .318 in 1972, but neither could manage a HR.

15. Did you know that Vince Coleman set the all time record for consecutive SB? From September 18, 1988 to July26, 1989, Coleman stole 50 consecutive bases without being caught.

16. Did you know that Norm Cash owes something to Beethoven? During what would become a Nolan Ryan no-hitter on July 15, 1973, Norm Cash, realizing the futility of trying to hit Ryan, brought not a bat to the plate, but a piano leg! He was ordered to return to the dugout to procure a bat prior to be allowed to hit.

17. Did you know that the worst team of all time wasn’t the 1962 Mets or the 2003 Tigers? The worst team of all time were the 1899 Cleveland Spiders of the NL. After losing 40 of their final 41 games, the Spiders finished the season with a 20-134 record.

18. Did you know that on October 9, 1920 Rube Marquard was arrested by an undercover police officer for scalping World Series tickets…for a game his own team was playing in!

19. Did you know that Babe Ruth’s career HR total is actually 715 and not 714? The reason for this is that prior to 1920, a “walk off” home run, if it created a winning margin of more than one run, was credited only as whatever hit would have produced the wining run. Therefore, on July 8,1918, Babe Ruth’s “walk off” HR was only credited as a triple. (His record still stands at 714 because MLB has decided to maintain the integrity of its records by allowing the ruling that was rendered to “stand” regardless of whether or not the rules were changed later.

20. The following pitcher actually threw no-hitters in games that they actually lost: Ken Johnson, (4/23/1964, Hou v Cin, 0-1, 9IP), Steve Barber (8 2/3 IP) Stu Miller (4/3/1967, Bal v Det, 1-2, 1/3 IP), Andy Hawkins (7/1/1990, NYY @ ChW, 0-4, 8IP), Matt Young (4/12/1992, Oak @ Cle, 1-2, 8IP).

21. Did you know that the longest relief outing in history was 18.1 innings by Zip Zabel of the Cubs on June 17, 1915? He got the win 4 to 3 after entering the game with two outs in the 1st inning.

22. How good was Babe Ruth? In the following years Ruth more than DOUBLED his next closest pursuer in HR: 1919 (29 to Cravath’s 12), 1920 (54 to Sisler’s 19), 1921 (59 to K.Williams and Meusal’s 24) and 1926 (47 to Hack Wilson’s 21).

23. In 2004 against his former team the Mets, Armadno Benitez had 11 saves, an all-time record vs. one team (13.1 IP, 1 ER, 12 K, 0.68 ERA, 0.30 WHIP, .091 BAA).

24. Russ Christopher is the only pitcher in ML history to have an ERA under 4 (3.82), a BB/9IP of over 5 (5.40) and a Win% below .300 (4-13 for a .235 Win%)..

25. There have only been three 3B whoever played who produced a single season of at least .325-40-100. They are Al Rosen (.336-43-135 in 1953), Ken Caminiti (.326-40-130 in 1996) and Adrian Beltre (.334-48-121 in 2004).

26. Everyone knows that Ichiro set the all-time single season hit record in 2004 with 262, but how many of you are aware that he also set the all-time single season record for singles that year with 225?

27. Barry Bonds set the all-time single season HR record in 2001 with 73, but did you know that despite all those homers he still finished 12 extra-base hits behind Babe Ruth’s single season record of 119 set in 1921?

28. When Barry Bonds set an all-time season record with 232 BB in 2004 he reached base 376 times…the second highest mark in history to the 379 times Babe Ruth reached base in 1923.

29. In 1917 Ray Chapman set an all-time single season record with 67 sacrifice hits…guess you would want him bunting in the 9th inning of a tie game.

30. In 1972 Nolan Ryan set a single season record by allowing only 5.26 hits per 9 IP.

31. In 2001 Randy Johnson set a single season record by averaging 13.4 K per 9 IP.

Mailbag Questions: July 28th

2006-07-27T18:56:00.001-07:00

MAILBAG – Week 17
Contributed By: Ray Flowers of www.FantasyBaseball.com

In my keeper league, I was offered Vladimir Guerrero for Grady Sizemore, should I accept it? I really like Sizemore and he's still only 23, but is Vlad too good to pass on?
-- A.J., Colorado Springs, CO

Wow, this is huge trade in a keeper league. Since I don’t know the rules of your keeper league, I will work under the assumption that your league allows you to keep either player for three years. Let’s start with Sizemore who was a stud last year going 20/20 with 111 runs while hitting .289. This season, Sizemore has slightly increased his average (.307), power (16 HR) and SB rate (15). More impressively, Sizemore is on pace to score 133 runs this year, a monster number, partly because he has upped his OBP almost .040 points from last season (.386). And as you mentioned, Sizemore is 23-years-old, so, as they say, the sky’s the limit with this guy. But what about Vlad?

With Vlad the most important number is 30. In 7 of the last 8 years he has hit at least 30 HRs and knocked in 100 runs. Come to think of it, Vlad has also scored at least 95 runs in 7 of the last 8 years as well (in 2003 he injured his back but still hit .330-25-79, not a bad “off” year huh?). In addition, Vlad owns a career average of .323, not to mention a career OPS of .970. Sizemore might hit .323 one day, but the chance of him producing even a single season of .970 is far from certain. To summarize, in 7 of the past 8 seasons Vlad has hit at least .305-32-108-95, numbers that Sizemore might be hard-pressed to ever match in a single season. Sure he will steal more bases than Vlad at his age, but is that enough of an incentive to count on him over Vlad? Oh yeah, I forgot to mention the most important “30” of them all for Vlad; he is only 30-years-old.

As much potential as Sizemore shows, hitters like Vlad come along once every 20 years. I would do this deal if I were in your shoes, even with the age discrepancy, which as we have seen isn’t all that great. Vlad’s overall game is just too much when combined with his amazing consistency and that fact that he is only 30-years-old.

I know that Kenny Rogers stinks in the second half, and with his performance this week (7 ER, 2 outs), I need to pick up a SP off waivers. Who would you recommend out of Gil Meche, Matt Morris and John Garland?
-- Kenny

Meche (9-5, 4.19 ERA, 106 K, 1.37 WHIP) had been on a solid streak of 7 games in 9 starts allowing 2 or fewer ERs. Of course, he isn’t that good, and he got lit up the other night (7 ER) to end that steak. Meche has talent, no dispute here with that, but it has simply never translated to consistent big-league success (career 4.61 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Meche had a 1.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in June, fantastic numbers, but those numbers skyrocket to a 5.15 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in the other three months of the season, closely approximating his career numbers. He isn’t a long-term answer. Morris (8-8, 4.82 ERA, 75 K, 1.36 WHIP), like Meche, was great in June (3-1, 2.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and has been pretty terrible the rest of the time (5-7, 5.86 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Morris isn’t the answer here either.

That leaves us with last year’s darling, Garland (10-3, 4.78 ERA, 63 K, 1.36 WHIP). On the surface the numbers of all three of these pitchers are very similar. However, we have shown that Morris and Meche are really the products of their righteous June performances. Garland on the other hand has gotten better as the season has worn on going 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP since June 1st. Sure, Garland will probably post fewer Ks than the other two hurlers, but with his recent hot trend, combined with the fact that he is on the strongest team in the White Sox (that is if they start winning again), the best bet at this point is Garland.

I was wondering what you thought of this trade offered to me. I get: Corey Patterson and Austin Kearns. I give up: Ryan Howard. I have Morneau at 1B, Howard has been my UT, and my current OF is S. Green, G. Matthews, Carlos Lee and D. Roberts. Your thoughts?
-- James, Brookfield, IL

I could see the need to improve your OF here, I would agree with that assessment. However, I wouldn’t suggest accepting this offer. With Morneau at 1B and Howard at UT, who is better than you in your league at those two spots? Howard (.282-32-80-51-0) has been great, though that is not to say I don’t have concerns about him considering he is second in baseball with 110 Ks and his batting average has gone down every month this season. Howard also has only 40 BB on the season, 33 less than Adam Dunn, the only man with more K’s than Howard this year (115). In addition, Howard has the worst GB/FB ratio (1.35) of any of he top 37 HR hitters in baseball, so there should still be some concern with Howard despite all the bombs he hits.

The two OFs you would be getting come with their own concerns. Patterson (.282-10-37-48-32) has been an amazing find this season, especially with those career-high tying 32 SBs. However, every player in the majors who has at least 15 SBs this year has an OBP better than Patterson’s .315 mark, so you have to figure he will either need to improve his OBP or he will simply begin to fall off in SBs (he has only 2 SBs in 19 July games). The reason is that he gets on base so infrequently that he has to steal a base around 50% of the time that he reaches first base. Also, Patterson still struggles against lefties hitting .220 against them in 85 ABs, so there is always a chance he will start to lose playing time in that situation.

Kearns (.268-17-51-56-8) has finally been injury free and with 45 ABs will record his first 400 AB season in the major leagues. The 8 SBs are nice, but his other numbers really aren’t that interesting to me nor should they be to you if you are going to be counting on him the rest of the way. Kearns’ batting average has gone down every month this year, and he is hitting just .200 since his trade to the Nationals. And therein lies another issue, his new situation in Washington. Besides moving from a great power-hitting park (Cincinnati) to one in the lower third of the league, the Nationals lineup is a mess. Alfonso Soriano will likely be traded and Jose Guillen is out for the year with TJ surgery, so depending on who they pick up at the deadline, it might just be Kearns, Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman in the middle of that lineup, and that threesome isn’t scaring anyone. So if his injury history wasn’t enough of a concern for you, his playing situation should be. Pass on this deal.

I have a handful of players that I've been shuffling in and out of my line-up that I know have talent, but just haven't produced in several weeks or more (guys like JD Drew, F. Lopez, A. Kearns, C. Shelton, and K. Youkilis). I want to be patient because it is such a long season, but what should I do with these guys? Should I pick up someone like J. Barfield, S. Drew, J. Hermida, or C. Quentin?
-- Jason, North Brunswick, NJ

The age-old question of when is enough, enough? Let’s review all the guys you mentioned, and I will give you some quick thoughts on each.

J.D. Drew (.281-9-54-47-2) – Tremendous talent, always injured. Tough to count on.
Felipe Lopez (.265-10-34-60-25) – Terrific SB total but hitting only .241 since June 1st and now on a much less potent offensive team in Washington.
Austin Kearns – See my comments above.
Chris Shelton (.272-16-44-46-1) – Has worse numbers this year than last. Should have been cut 2 months ago. Since May 1st: .252-6-24-29 in 250 ABs.
Kevin Youkilis (.296-11-47-69-5) – Hitting only .232 with a .672 OPS in 82 July ABs.

As for the free agents.

Josh Barfield (.299-5-31-44-15) – One of the leagues hottest hitters in July: .438-1-9-12-6.
Stephen Drew (.282-0-2-3-1) – Craig Counsell is still at least 2 weeks away (ribs).
Jeremy Hermida (.303-4-18-26-4) – No one has noticed, but hitting .327 since June 1st.
Carlos Quentin (.357-3-7-5-1) – One of the D’backs top prospects. The D’backs are exploring a trade of either Shawn Green or Luis Gonzalez to open up a full-time spot for Quentin.

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.

Mailbag Questions: July 28th

2006-07-27T18:56:00.000-07:00

First- Half All-Stars

2006-07-13T09:44:00.000-07:00

Contributed By: Ray Flowers of www.FantasyBaseball.com

With the all-star break wrapping up, I thought it would be appropriate to skip the mailbag this week and to spend some time detailing my first-half all-stars. Now these al-star lists are all over the place, so you’re probably sick of reading them, so I thought I would tweak things a bit. My all-star list is not a rendering of the best players in fantasy baseball. My list is a rendering of the out-of-nowhere all-stars of the first half. You know, the guys who you were “forced” to draft in the 23rd round of your draft because there was no one left. The guy who you grabbed because he played for your home team. Or the guy you drafted because he bares a slight resemblance to you and your significant other thought he was cute. Basically, these are the players that no one predicted much success for entering the 2006 season, but as we look back on the first half these guys have been difference makers.

First-Half, Out of Nowhere, All-Stars

1B Kevin Youkilis, BOS (.297-10-43-60-5)
The “Greek God of Walks”, as dubbed by A’s GM Billy Beane, has 55 BB through 88 games leading to a .407 OBP, the 15th best mark in baseball. Because of his ability to get on base, Youkilis has spent the majority of the season in the Red Sox leadoff spot and has scored 60 runs, the 23rd highest mark in baseball. Not bad for a guy with 287 career at-bats entering the season

2B Brandon Phillips, CIN (.306-7-44-42-16)
Don’t lie, you didn’t even have him on your draft list did you (I didn’t)? Phillips wasn’t even on a major league roster at the start of the season, though after his 17 RBIs in 7 games in April, someone surely picked him up. After 22 RBIs in April, he has just 22 in his last 218 at-bats, but his overall numbers are still stellar, especially that .306 average and those 16 SBs which are golden coming from a waiver-wire pickup.

3B Freddy Sanchez, PIT (.358-5-49-50-1)
As I wrote last week, this guy has been flat out amazing. He has suited up for 54 games at 3B, 14 at SS and 7 at 2B (he also played 58 games at 2B last year). Sanchez is hitting .3581, just barely behind Nomar Garciaparra’s .3582 for the NL lead.

SS Jamey Carroll, COL (.324-3-19-46-5)
I could have listed Orlando Cabrera who is coming off a streak of reaching base in 63 straight games (the longest streak since 1960), but Cabrera was drafted in most leagues whereas Carroll, I would venture, wasn’t drafted in a single 12-team mixed league in the country. Carroll is hitting .404 against lefties in 57 at-bats, and is hitting an equally impressive .383 at home in Coors Field.

C Josh Bard, SD (.369-5-20-17-0)
Bard was nothing more than an after thought this year. After only 7 games in Boston where he unsuccessfully attempted to catch Tim Wakefield, Bard was sent back to San Diego in a trade for Doug Mirabelli. Bard has hit like crazy when he has been in the lineup even posting a .997 OPS in limited appearances (130 ABs). Mike Redman is also worthy of mention here since he is hitting .357, meaning that Twins catchers are hitting a combined .372 (Joe Mauer is hitting .378).

OF Alexis Rios, TOR (.330-15-53-46-9)
Rios already has a career-high in HR, and is working on career bests in AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS. In particular, the OPS improvement really jumps off the page. In his career prior to this season his OPS was .711, while this year it’s .968. His leg injury makes his status for the rest of the way highly uncertain, but that doesn’t effect his spectacular performance thus far.

OF Gary Matthews Jr., TEX (.328-10-47-47-5)
Matthews has never hit over .276, knocked in more than 55 runs or scored more than 72 in a season. He is on pace to destroy all of those totals this year. The big difference for Matthews has been playing time as he is on pace for his first 500 AB season. It’s worth noting that Matthews entered the season with a career OBP of .327, and his batting average this season is .328 (with a .374 OBP).

OF Reed Johnson, TOR (.365-4-21-52-8)
Only 23 men who have ever played have scored over 100 runs in fewer than 425 at-bats, and Johnson is on pace to be the 24th this season. Johnson is hitting .333 vs. lefties, .394 vs. righties and .388 since June 1st. So tell me, why he isn’t in the lineup every day?

SP Bronson Arroyo, CIN (9-6, 3.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP with 98 K in 130 IP)
Arroyo went from being a 5th starter/long reliever in Boston to a hitters paradise in Cincinnati and he has somehow excelled. Arroyo has been bombed his last two starts giving up 11 runs in 11.1 IP, not to mention 21 baserunners, but overall his numbers are fantastic. Arroyo is 6th in the NL in ERA, 7th in WHIP and 11th in K, all of this from a pitcher with a career 4.59 ERA and 1.36 WHIP entering 2006.

SP Justin Verlander, DET (10-4, 3.01 ERA, 69 K, 1.17 WHIP)
Verlander threw career-high 129.2 innings last season so his 110.2 first half innings are a slight concern. However, Verlander’s performance thus far has been brilliant with the 3rd best win total in the AL, the 5th best ERA and the 10th best WHIP. While he does own a decent 2.09 K/BB ratio, how is it that a guy who consistently throws over 95 mph averages only 5.6 K/9IP?

SP Brad Penny, LAD (10-2, 2.91 ERA, 82 K, 1.21 WHIP)
Penny is always an injury risk and because of those injuries he won only 16 games the past two years. Penny is healthy this year, and now he even started the all-star game. Penny hasn’t thrown 200 innings since 2001, he has thrown 108.1 innings thus far, and his WHIP over his last 295.2 IP is a solid 1.25.

SP Kenny Rogers, DET (11-3, 3.85 ERA, 65 K, 1.19 WHIP)
Uh, this one makes no sense at all. Well it sort of does. Rogers is strong in the first half, he is 22-7 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last two years, before he collapses in the second half (10-10, 5.11 ERA, 1.57 WHIP). Will the trend continue this year?

SP Tom Glavine, Mets (11-2, 3.48 ERA, 82 K, 1.32 WHIP in 119 IP)
Glavine enters the break with 11 wins after his previous three relatively unsuccessful seasons in NY when he earned 9,11 and 13 wins. Glavine also has 82 Ks after averaging 99 the past three season’s, a strange development for a 40-year-old. Glavine has slowed tremendously in his last 46 IP with a 4.89 ERA and 1.67 despite a 3-0 record.

RP Darren Oliver, NYM (3-0, 2.15 ERA, 36 K, 0.97 WHIP in 50.1 IP)
Olive is one of the reasons the Mets are where they are, and NO ONE would have predicted that. This is a man who entered the season with a career ERA of 5.07 and a WHIP of 1.54 not to mention the fact that he didn’t even pitch in the major leagues last year. The only way he was drafted this year was if someone was related or they thought he was good-looking.

RP Takashi Saito, LAD (3-2, 2.14 ERA, 57 K, 0.86 WHIP with 8 SV in 42 IP)
Pitching in middle relief before being elevated to the closers role for the Dodgers, Saito has been a revelation. With a 5.2 K/BB ratio and a .172 BAA, Saito has been flat out dominant. If you remove the 5 earned runs he gave up in 1.2 IP on May 2nd and 4th his season ERA would be 1.12.

RP Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (2-1, 0.59 ERA, 47 K, 0.72 WHIP with 26 SV in 46 IP)
Papelbon has moved from being the 5th/6th starter in the Red Sox rotation to become the most dominant closer in baseball. Of all pitchers who have ever stepped on a major league hill the record for lowest ERA ever recorded in a single season by a pitcher with over 70 IP is 0.61 by Dennis Eckersley in 1990, a mark that Papelbon is currently challenging.

RP Akinori Otsuka, TEX (2-3, 2.13 ERA, 30 K, 0.92 WHIP with 17 SV in 38 IP)
After producing a decent follow up to his excellent rookie season for San Diego last year, Otsuka moved to the AL to pitch in an extreme hitters park in Texas. After Francisco Cordero struggled, Otsuka has stepped into the closers role and been amazingly efficient for the Rangers. Not bad for a player who most likely was on waivers at the start of the season.

RP J.J. Putz, SEA (1-0, 2.11 ERA, 58 K, 0.77 WHIP with 16 SV in 42.2 IP)
Thought to be no more than the 3rd option in the Mariners bullpen at the start of the season (behind Eddie Guardado and Rafael Soriano), Putz would likely be “the” story out of the bullpen if not for Papelbon. With 58 K and only 7 K, Putz has an unearthly 8.3 K/BB ratio while averaging 12.2 K per 9 IP. What does a guy need to do to make the all-star team?

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.

Fantasy Factoids for June

2006-06-29T10:08:00.000-07:00

***To read the Fantasy Factoid on a daily basis visit FantasyBaseball.com, scroll down on the homepage and look for the Fantasy Factoid button.

JUNE
June 29, 1990: The only time in major league history that two pitchers hurled no-hitters on the same day. Dave Stewart no-hit the Blue Jays while Fernando Valenzuela no-hit the St. Louis Cardinals.

June 2, 1990: Randy Johnson pitches the first no-hitter in Mariners history in a 2-0 win over the Tigers.

June 3, 1932: Lou Gehrig hits 4 consecutive HRs (a fifth dies on the warning track).

June 4, 1916: In a PCL game between San Francisco and Oakland, Bill Prough pitches 10 hitless innings. In fact, he pitched 17 innings on the day without allowing a single run (he gave up 4 hits and Oakland ended up winning in 18 innings).

June 5, 1966: After a 5 for 5 day, Willie Stargell had a streak of nine straight hits over two days.

June6, 1999: Roger Clemens earns a loss against the Mets 7-2 as he loses his first decision after 20 consective wins.

June 7, 1944: Amidst his MVP season (he went 29-9 on the season), pitcher Hal Newhouser walks 9 men in 6 innings on the hill to lose 3-1 to the White Sox.

June 8, 1982: Dodger minor leaguer Sid Fernandez notched his third game of the season with at least 16 Ks. He also happened to pitch his second no-hitter of the year on this date.

June 9th, 1935: The Cardinals become the 10th team in major league history to score in every inning during a 13-2 victory over the Cubs.

June 10, 1996: Tim Wakefield, working on 2 days rest, allows 16 hits in an 8-2 Red Sox victory. Oh yeah, he happened to throw 162 pitches too.

June 11, 1999 Miguel Tejada hits 3 HRs making him just the 10 SS in history to do so.

June 12, 1916: A skinny pitcher steps to the plate and hits a PH homer, the first HR of his career. That pitcher was named Babe Ruth.

June 13, 1921: Umpires, for the first time, rub up game balls with special “dirt”. At that time it was supplied by A’s coach Lena Blackburne’s New Jersey farm.

June 14, 1952: Warren Spahn ties a NL record with an 18 K performance in a 3-1 loss to the Cubs. Spahn pitched 15 innings on that day.

June 15, 1998: Sammy Sosa hits three HRs in a 6-5 win over the Brewers to give him 15 HR in a 16 game span.

June 16, 1996: Mel Allen, the man who coined the phrase used to name this column, dies at age 83.

June 17, 1962: In a season to forget for the Mets, Marv Thornberry hit a triple in an 8-7 loss. Actually, his hit didn’t end up being a triple, it ended up being a single because he actually missed both second AND third base on his way around the bases.

June 18, 1941: The Giants and Pirates game is stopped in the 4th inning, not because of rain, but so that the patrons could listen to a broadcast of a boxing title fight between Billy Conn and Joe Louis.

June 19, 1927: Paul Wagner’s 23 hitting streak ends, a streak which included an NL record 14 straight games with and extra-base hit (he hit .380 with 131 RBI on the season).

June 20, 1929: Mel Ott finished with 151 RBI on the season, aided by the 3 RBIs he had on this date, giving him an RBI in 11 straight games (27 total during that span).

21. June 21, 1901: Harley “Doc” Parker surrenders 26 hits and 21 runs in his only game pitched in the 20th century for an ERA of 15.75 and a WHIP of 3.50.

June 22, 1932: The NL, following the custom established by the AL in 1929, finally mandates all player jerseys to require numbers.

June 23, 1964: Charlie Lau ties a major league record by earning two pinch hits in the same inning, the 8th, in a 9-8 victory for Baltimore over the Yankees.

June 24, 1993: After never having a multi-homer game in his entire life, Giants 2B Robby Thompson has his second straight 2 HR game during a 17-2 victory over the Rockies.

June 25, 1928: Freddie Lindstrom beats out 9 hits in a doubleheader against Philadelphia to tie a major league record.

June 26, 1966: For his second straight start, Sandy Koufax records a streak of seven consecutive strikeouts within a game.

June 27, 1977: With two homeruns in the 6th inning, Willie McCovey becomes the first NL player to have hit two HR in the same inning on two separate occasions.

June 28, 1939: Talk about power, the NY Yankees hit a total of 13 HR in a doubleheader against the A’s, a major league record, led by three each from Joe Dimaggio, Babe Dahlgren and Joe Gordon.

June 29, 1909: Walter Johnson gave up a HR to Ray Demmit. What makes that so interesting? Well, it’s the first HR Johnson allowed since his major league debut…in 1907.

June 30, 1996: Eric Young steals six bases in Colorado’s 16-15 win to tie a major league record.

MAILBAG, June 21st, 2006

2006-06-21T13:51:00.000-07:00

MAILBAG – Week 12
Contributed By: Ray Flowers of www.FantasyBaseball.com

OK, it's official. My first round draft choice was Mark Teixeira and he's stinking up the joint (relatively speaking). What's wrong with him?
-- Jake, Saratoga Springs, NY

Don’t worry Jake, I have received about 20 emails like this one in the past couple of weeks, so let’s address what’s going on with “Tex.”

Yes, Teixeira’s lack of power is disturbing, and no one seems to know why the HRs have suddenly dried up. Tex (.281-6-39-38) currently has a .435 SLG%, well off the .568 mark he posted the past two seasons. Tex also averaged 41 HR the past two seasons and he is currently on pace for only 14 this season, a paltry number that would be just barely more than half his career-worst total of 26 set in his rookie season. Tex is also on pace to drive in just 89 runs after knocking in an average of 128 the last two years. As has been expressed by the many letters I have received, some quite colorful I might add, this type of production from a first-round draft pick can be crippling to a fantasy team.

However, there are a few signs that you should not despair, well, at least not lose hope. Prior to the 2006 season, Tex had 361 K and 184 BB, meaning that he averaged 1.94 K per BB. Despite his struggles this year, Tex has greatly improved that ratio to 1.47 (56 K, 38 BB), so he is making better contact than he has in the past. In addition his batting average of .281 is almost spot on his career mark of .282, so he hasn’t lost anything there as well. Taking this comparison one step further, Tex has a .366 OBP in 2006, so do you want to guess what his career mark is? Try .362. So in the end Tex is making better drawing more walks, striking out fewer times, batting for the same average and getting on base at the same rate he always has which leads me to believe that in time, the HRs will return as well.

I'm in a 12-team h2h league. My pitching staff is very solid: Peavy, Schmidt, C. Zambrano, Contreras, B Myers, Oswalt, Street, Colon & Cliff Lee and I have been offered a trade of David Wright (I have Chipper Jones at 3B). My question is who do I trade for Wright, Contreras or Schmidt?
-- Pete, South Jersey

Pete, I’m gonna go against what the majority of people’s knee jerk reactions would be and say you should trade Jose Contreras despite his amazing start (7-0, 2.96 ERA, 60 K, 1.05 WHIP). Before you call in the men with the straight jacket, here me out.

(1) Contreras is, counting last season’s playoffs, 21-3 in his last 24 decisions. Is anyone really that good?
(2) In 2006 Contreras is averaging 6.35 K per 9 IP. Last season, that number was 6.78.
(3) Prior to 2006, Contreras had a 1.99 K/BB ratio. This season, that number is way up to 2.73, a substantial improvement. Will it continue especially since his K rate is down?
(4) This year his groundball to flyball ratio is 1.31, which is statistically an insignificant improvement over his 1.22 career mark.
(5) His batting average against on balls in play this year .235. Last year it was only slightly worse at .251.

So basically, if you look a little more in depth at the numbers, Contreras is essentially duplicating his level of production last year in numerous areas except for the fact that he is walking way fewer hitters (2.33 per 9 IP this year, 3.81 per 9 previously) while also striking our less. Does that sound like a recipe for his current level of domination? It sure doesn’t to me, especially when you add in one last number, 34, the “reported” age of Cuban defector Contreras. Even if it is his real age, 34 is pretty late in ones career to all of sudden find a new level of control while losing ones ability to dominate hitters with the strikeout. Plus, the law of averages say he wont go 16-0, which is his current pace, so I would trade him in a second to pick up David Wright (.330-15-55-45-10), the best all-around 3B in the fantasy game as of today.

Ray, would do you think of this trade of Chris Young for Brian Roberts? Our league counts K/9 and total Ks so I think Young is valuable but is he pitching over his head? Can Roberts stay healthy and keep swiping all those bags?
-- Andrew, Dallas, Texas

Since I don’t know the makeup of your team, I will just have to deal with these two players as if they were in their own universe with no other factors influencing our decision. Chris Young (6-3, 3.27 ERA, 75 K, 1.10 WHIP) has been a revelation for the Padres, but his success was not unexpected. Young moved from the AL to the NL, a big help to all pitchers of the world, but of even more significance was the fact that he moved from the AL park that gave up the most runs in 2005 to join the Padres who’s stadium, PETCO Park, was the most difficult NL park to score a run in last season compared to the league average. What is slightly surprising however is the fact that Young has already surrendered 14 HRs on the year after allowing only 19 last season. This is surprising because Young moved from the second easiest park in baseball to homer in (Arlington) to the most difficult one (PETCO), which means the numbers should be reversed from where they are.

Young has been unconscious in June posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.89 WHIP while holding batters to a .154 batting average, so of course, he has been pitching over his head recently. In fact, I should mention a few other points here that are noteworthy. (1) In his career Young has a 2.98 K/BB ratio, and this year that number is just 2.42. (2) Despite 75 K, his K per 9 IP of 7.9 is just barely above his 7.3 mark for his career. (3) Young has a ratio of 2.46 BB per 9 IP his first two years in the league and that number is up to 3.27 this year. So while his ratios look impressive, there are some signs that he is currently seeing better results than his peripheral numbers suggest he should be.

Roberts (.308-0-25-32-17) has been viewed as a bust by some because they were expecting a repeat of last season’s power numbers (18 HR, 73 RBI). Roberts, who suffered a shoulder injury at the end of last season that required surgery, has never been a power hitter as evidenced by his 12 HRs in 1502 ABs prior to the 2005 season. This season the real hurdle for Roberts has been a troublesome groin, and injury that he has apparently overcome considering the fact he has 8 SB in 19 June games. Roberts game is speed, and if healthy and batting at the top of the Orioles lineup, there is no reason not to expect the SBs to keep coming. Since the all-star break of the 2004 season Roberts has hit .307 in 1,064 ABs, so he should also be able to maintain that average as well which would lead me to say that of these two players, I would rather have Roberts on my roster in the second half.

I was offered Alex Rodriguez for Scott Rolen and Roy Oswalt. My other SPs are: J. Schmidt, A. Cook, J. Westbrook, Jamey Wright, D. Lowe and M. Batista. Should I accept?
-- John

John, based on your pitching staff I don’t think this trade makes much sense for you to accept. Schmidt (6-3, 2.84 ERA, 88 K, 1.09 WHIP) is an ace-like pitcher, but the rest of your rotation, if you were to trade Oswalt, is a hit-and-miss bunch of bottom of the rotation type guys who have a propensity, at one time or another, to give up a ton of hits and for that matter, runs. In fact, depending on the type of league you are in, I wouldn’t be surprised to find Cook, Wright and Batista on the waiver wire right now, so this is definitely not an area of strength on your team.

Rolen is hitting .343 on the year and he has been carrying the Cardinals with Albert Pujols out. Rolen is hitting an amazing .390 with 18 RBIs in 16 games in June, numbers that dwarf the struggling Arod’s in June (.220-2-7). However, you know the old adage of sell high and buy low, so now would be the perfect time to lure the Arod owner in with an offer of Rolen. I would say that if you can make the deal for Arod with Rolen and any of your other pitchers besides Oswalt or Schmidt I would do it. In fact, I would probably trade Rolen and any two of those other pitchers on your staff for Arod since you can assuredly pick up someone off your waiver wire to approximate the performances of those third tier pitchers you currently have.

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.

Production, First Basemen

2006-06-14T20:35:00.000-07:00

Contributed By: Ray Flowers

Each week, for the next eight weeks on Wednesday, I will survey 6 players from each position whose performance is worthy of discussion. I will survey two players at the position who have failed to meet expectations, two who have greatly exceeded the numbers that were anticipated for them and then two players that are worthy of special attention the rest of the season. Some of the names on the list might be the reason that you are in 8th place in your league, while others whom you chose in the 22nd round of your draft might be the reason you currently sit in first place.

UNDER PERFORMING
Todd Helton (.277-4-18-26 in 155 AB)
Pace: .277-14-62-89-0 with a .861 OPS
Anything below .300 is pretty poor for a hitter with a lifetime .335 average. Of course, Helton was on the DL for a couple of weeks attempting to recover from an intestinal illness that had him in the hospital for a few days. Maybe I’m crazy, but this has to be temporary right? If you remove the month of May (.233-3-9), quite possibly the worst month of his last 7 seasons, he has hit .338 in 65 April and June ABs, right were you would expect him to be. Helton, a career .295 hitter on the road, is hitting a measly .241 this year outside of Coors. For that matter, his career .373 average at home is down to .316 as well. The bottom line is that even if the power is lacking, Helton hits .349 in his career in the second half with a 1.066 OPS, and every month of the season left he has hit at least .324 in his career. This may be the last time you can get him on the cheap.

Mark Teixeira (.299-6-30-33-0 in 221 AB)
Pace: .299-17-87-95-0 with a .859 OPS
This spot could of easily have been taken by Richie Sexson (.214-8-36-22-0) of the Mariners, but considering he was 4th to 6th round draft pick in most leagues, it made more sense to go with “Tex” who was a unanimous first round pick this season. After an amazing season of .301-43-144, Tex is on pace to have the worst power season of his career (his career-lows are 26 HR, 84 RBI). After hitting .334 with 30 HR at Ameriquest Field in 2005, Tex has bit but .252 with 4 HR this year in Texas. He has been hot of late hitting a scalding .414 in his last 11 games with 2 HR and 8 RBIs, but 6 HR and 30 RBI overall are a pathetic total for this proud slugger. Waiver wire pickup Brandon Phillips has 5 HR and 33 RBIs, and he plays second base! Teixeira is too talented not to pick it up, but he is gonna have to really hustle just to reach 30 HR and 100 RBI, totals that were a “given” at the start of the year.

OVER PERFORMING
Ben Broussard (.361-8-29-29-0 in 147 AB)
Pace: .361-25-90-90 with a .977 OPS
OK, let me offer some perspective here. Here are Broussard’s career-highs: .275-19-82-59 with a .858 OPS. So what in that line supports what he is doing thus far? Nothing is right. Let’s take a look at his three-year average: of .260-17-68-56 with a .795 OPS. In his career prior to 2006, Ben was a career .263 hitter vs. right handers (1112 ABs), but this year in that situation he has morphed into the second coming of Rogers Hornsby hitting .402 in 122 ABs. Broussard is also hitting .422 at home, .418 at night and .556 in June (10 for 18). There’s an awful long way to fall for a career .261 hitter who happens to be hitting .421 with RISP, so be careful about your expectations the rest of the way. Let’s hope he keeps it going, but if I were a betting man, I’m putting all my money, except for bus fare and enough money to buy some nachos, against this production continuing.

Kevin Youkilis (.317-7-27-42-3 202 AB)
Pace: .317-21-83-128-9 with a 936 OPS
Batting leadoff sure aided Youkilis’ numbers in the runs department, but now that Coco Crisp has returned from injury, Youkilis has been relocated at the bottom of the order which may help his RBI totals slightly, but his days of scoring almost a run per game are over. Youkilis has murdered Orioles pitching this year (.448-1-6) so much so that if you remove those 29 ABs from his ledger, his average drops all the way down to .295 on the season. It’s hard to take away from what he has done thus far, because in truth, he has been great. However, he entered 2006 hitting .265-8-44 in 287 ABs, so his improvement thus far has been sizable and one that doesn’t figure to continue. Only Derrek Lee, Albert Pujols, Travis Hafner, David Ortiz, mark Teixeira and Carlos Delgado amongst first basemen hit .300 with 20 HR, 80 RBI and 100 runs scored last year, and Youkilis’ name surely doesn’t belong anywhere near those names despite the pace he has currently set.

TWO TO WATCH
Shae Hillenbrand (.344-9-28-30-0 in 183 AB)
Pace: .344-28-87-94 with a .937 OPS
Guess who leads all 1B eligible players in average right now? That’s right. For a little perspective however, here are what Hillenbrand’s numbers looked like on June 1st last season: .320-6-26-37. Of course, this early season hitter faded to finish at a still respectable .291-18-82-91 line in 2005, but it just goes to show you that the hot start that Hillenbrand usually begins the season with always fades. A career .303 hitter in the first half, Hillenbrand slumps to .277 in the second, still a solid number, but because of his relative lack of power he is best served as being a CI or a UT in a deep mixed league. Keep that in mind before you get too giddy with his start, though he does still have the potential to hit .320-20-80 this year, so don’t totally discount him moving forward.

Chris Shelton (.293-11-28-26-0 in 191 AB)
Pace: .293-32-81-75 with a .908 OPS
I wrote an Impact Report earlier this year in which I pulled out my crystal ball and predicted a .290-29-95 season for Shelton (it was published on April 16th when he was hitting .571-7-14 in 9 games. See: APRIL 16th, Impact Report: Chris Shleton). At this point his pace has him right about on those marks, so why are people disappointed with his play? The simple answer is expectations. In his career before 2006, Shelton hit .288-22-74 in 162 games (524 ABs), so what he is on pace to do this year is slightly better than that. How could that make anyone upset or disappointed? The only way I could see that occurring is if you picked him up in a trade after the season began because if you missed his April (.326-10-20-17), you have gotten virtually nothing from your 1B position (.263-1-8-9 in 99 ABs). He started off unconscious, recently he has been horrible, but overall, a.290/30 HR pace from your 1B who was likely a waiver wire or late round pick should leave you with nothing to complain about.

CATCHERS REVEW

2006-06-05T15:30:00.000-07:00

PRODUCTION - THE CATCHERS
Contributed By: Ray Flowers

FANTASYBASEBALL.COM

Each week, for the next eight weeks on Wednesday, I will survey 6 players from each position whose performance is worthy of discussion. I will survey two players at the position who have failed to meet expectations, two who have greatly exceeded the numbers that were anticipated for them and then two players that are worthy of special attention the rest of the season. Some of the names on the list might be the reason that you are in 8th place in your league, while others whom you chose in the 22nd round of your draft might be the reason you currently sit in first place.

UNDER PERFORMING

Jason Kendall (.265-0-12-12-2 in 136 AB)
Pace: .265-0-45-45-8
OK, so Kendall isn’t the hitter he once was (career .301), but who would of thought he wouldn’t hit a HR for 14 seasons (well it isn’t really that bad, but he hasn’t hit one for the A’s in 737 ABs). So let’s see. Kendall no longer appears capable of even putting up 5 HR and he apparently can’t hit for average any longer either (.270 average for the A’s in those 737 ABs). Even worse is the fact that he is on pace for only 45 runs scored when he has average 80 the past three years. In addition, Kendall has never scored fewer than 59 runs in any of the 8 seasons in his career when he has amassed at least 450 ABs, so he has a ways to go to meet even the meager expectations most of his owners had for him this year. One note of possible encouragement: Kendall is a better second half hitter in his career with a .306 average (vs. 297 in the first half) and .800 OPS (.775) after the all-star game.

Jason Varitek (.239-5-24-22-1 in 142 AB)
Pace: .239-18-89-81-4
This one is more about perception than anything else. Sure Varitek is a career .271 hitter, so that average must, and should, improve as the season progresses (he has hit at least .266 in each of the last 5 seasons). While most C tend to wear down as the season moves along, Varitek’s second half “fade” is really pretty minor (in his career he has hit .275 with a .816 OPS in the first half, with second half numbers of .264/.785). While his average is lagging, the 89 RBIs and he 81 Runs he is on pace to produce this year would both be career-highs. So don’t make the mistake of thinking he is really having a poor season except in the batting average category where he is, cause he is actually doing pretty darn well otherwise.

OVER PERFORMING

Mike Redmond (.417-0-8-4 in 48 AB)
Pace: .417-0-77-38
In April Redmond hit .375 and then he has upped that mark to a ridiculous .458 in May. Further proof of his amazing start can be seen in his home/road splits: .417 average with a .942 OPS at home in 24 ABs, .417 with a .962 OPS on the road in 24 ABs. Need some more numbers? How about a .500 average vs. lefties (22 ABs) and a .346 mark vs. righties (26 ABs). How about a .429 average indoors and a .400 average outside. Now before you totally dismiss his start, you should realize that Redmond is a career .291 hitter, so he should continue to have some value even when his unbelievably hot start ceases.

Josh Bard (.361-5-14-11-0 in 61 AB)
Pace: .361-27-76-60
After an average start this year which included a .278 average with zero RBIs in 18 April ABs, Bard has blown up in May (.395-5-14-9). Obviously he is the number two option in San Diego behind Mike Piazza, but Piazza has been struggling a bit overall (.256-7-18-12), though he too has really hit well in May (.317-4-12 in 62 ABs). Bard’s playing time will be erratic and no matter how well he hits he doesn’t figure to supplant Piazza behind the dish this year. Entering 2006 Bard was a career .238 hitter with 13 HR an 61 RBIs in 485 career ABs so he should continue to be a solid hitter and worthy of a secondary catcher’s role on most rosters even if he continues to serve as Piazza’s backup.

TWO TO WATCH

Greg Zahn (.333-5-16-9-0 in 78 AB)
Pace: .333-28-91-51
I for one, was fairly certain that Zahn would not be able to duplicate his 2005 numbers (.251-11-61-61). First off, the Jays acquired Bengie Molina so there was every reason to think Zaun wouldn’t see much time wearing the tools of ignorance (Molina is hitting .285-4-14-13 in 130 ABs this year). Second, Zaun entered the year as a 35-year-old C, and that is not a good age to be when you pull on the shin guards. Third, Zahn’s 2005 season was a career year in his 12th season, not exactly something that gave me the warm and fuzzies. Flash forward to May 30th, and Zaun is exceeding the pace he established last year. Now I will make this statement: if Zaun reaches his projected totals this year, I will physically eat a baseball, that’s how certain I am that his current production is a total fluke. However, it doesn’t negate what he has done, and there is still a chance that he could match last years power numbers while improving his batting average. On the downside, June has been the worst month of his career as a hitter with a .216 average in 477 ABs, so there is a good chance his slide toward mediocrity is about ready to begin.

Jason LaRue (.197-3-9-7-0 in 71 AB)
Pace: .197-18-54-42
LaRue started the season on the DL after having minor knee surgery, and Javier Valentin, last years hitting hero in Cincinnati, was thrust into the lineup with generally poor results (.230-1-6-11 in 74 ABs). Basically, to this point of the season, neither C has distinguished himself on the offensive side of the game. However, LaRue is still on pace to have his fifth straight season of at least 12 HR and 50 RBIs, numbers that don’t sound too special until you realize that only three major league catchers have reached those numbers in each of the last 4 seasons; Ivan Rodriguez, Jorge Posada and Jason LaRue. In his career, LaRue has better numbers in the second half in AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS, and while his average isn’t great, he is a career .242 hitter overall so he surely has room to improve there as well.

Fantasy Baseball Mailbag, May 19

2006-05-19T10:15:00.000-07:00

MAILBAG – Week 7
Contributed By: Ray Flowers of FantasyBaseball.com

I have a trade offer of Furcal and Zito for Ordonez and Glavine. I currently have Peralta at SS but the back of my rotation is a bit spotty (Bush, Juan Cruz and the injured Bartolo Colon). My OF consists of Ordonez, Crawford, Hawpe and Rios. Would you make this trade under these circumstances?
--Phillip, Poland

I wrote about my thoughts regarding Furcal last week, and he has really turned things on of late with 13 hits in his last 40 ABs for a .325 average. The other player on this side of the trade is Barry Zito, and while he is 3-3, he still has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Zito has held batters to a .214 batting average, good for second in the AL, continuing a career long trend of dominating hitters (.227 BAA for his career). Even more impressive about his start this year is the fact that Zito followed a career-long trend of April struggles (5.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP this year, compared to his career numbers of 5.04 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), only to pull an amazing rebound in May: 0.65 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 4 starts.

Magglio Ordonez (.298-10-26-23) has had a great rebound to an injury filled past two years. Despite all his injuries, Ordonez performance on the field in 2004-05 was still pretty solid except for a bit of a downturn in his power: .298-17-83-70 in 507 ABs. How quickly people have forgotten that from 1999-2002 Ordonez hit at least 30 HR with 110 RBIs each year. Combine that power with the fact that Ordonez owns a career .306 average, and you a hell of a player if healthy. Glavine (6-2, 2.43 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 47 K in 59.1 IP) has been out of his mind so far this season. Glavine has 8 quality starts (6 IP, 3 ER or less) in 9 trips to the hill, but even more impressive is his 7.1 K per 9 IP ratio. Why is this impressive? Well, Glavine has a career K per 9 IP mark of 5.4 and hasn’t had a ratio over 7 since 1994. Glavine is also holding batters to a .210 average, he hasn’t held batters to less than a .240 average since 1998, so he’s pitching as if he is 29-years-old. Bottom line is that 39-year-olds that throw 84 mph can’t be this good, so a fall is imminent, especially when you compare his performance thus far to what he has done the past three years.

I agree with you that your rotation could use some help, but because you already have Peralta at SS and the fact that your OF depth is minimal and would be greatly compromised with the loss of Ordonez, I think in your case it would be wise to turn this trade offer down even though in a vacuum I would rather have Furcal and Zito.

I’m in a 10-team league. Do you think Hanley Ramirez can keep up is run production? If so, is it worth dropping Bobby Crosby to pick him up?
-- Scott, Washington, IN

To tell you the truth, I’m shocked he has held on this long. The fact that he is still on waivers proves the point that others in your league are rightly concerned as well. There was a lot of talk in the offseason that Ramirez (.331-2-16-35-11) might earn a spot in Boston’s lineup before he was traded to Florida, but most of the talk focused on his glove and not his bat. Ramirez, only 22-years-old, does own a career .302 minor league average, but he hit only .271-6-52-66-26 in AA last season, hardly numbers that would lead you to think he would be the second best fantasy SS in the NL at this point (behind Felipe Lopez). Ramirez is currently on pace to hit .333-9-72-153-45, a season that no SS in history has ever attained, so no, he will absolutely not continue to keep up his current level of production (the only player ever to reach all of those numbers in one year was Hugh Duffy in 1894). That being said he will continue to have value because of his SB potential, but his batting average could take a huge tumble, and those runs will dry up as well, meaning that he is a huge gamble the rest of the way.

As for Crosby (.228-5-15-16-1), he has traditionally been a bit of a slow starter with a career average of .240 in April and May before heating up in June to hit .337, his best total in any month. Crosby has struggled with injuries yet again this year, so its difficult to know what to expect long-term. In 2005 he did improve in AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS over his rookie year, so it would appear that he is heading in the right direction. At this point I wouldn’t dump the struggling Crosby to pick up Ramirez, especially since Ramirez performance will likely decline with his recently injured shoulder.

My OF is Chad Tracy, Xavier Nady and Gary Sheffield. Now with Sheffield on the DL I really need a big bat. I received on offer in which I give up A-rod and get back Troy Glaus and Carlos Lee would you do the trade?
-- Judah, Toronto Ontario

Well these sure are some “big bats.” Traditional wisdom would say you don’t trade the best fantasy performer of the past 10 years, especially when he plays 3B. However, this is an intriguing offer worthy of consideration.

As if I need to mention numbers with Arod (.273-9-29-33-4) I will mention just this one fact: over the last 8 years he has hit at least 36 HR with 106 RBIs and 110 Runs every year. Troy Glaus (.265-12-32-34-1), the power-hitting 3B of the Blue Jays, does provide big power when healthy (he was hit on the elbow and removed from the game on Tuesday). Glaus has had at least 29 HR and 79 RBI every year he has had 500 or more ABs, but Glaus has never had a single season of 36 HR, 106 RBI and 110 Runs, while Arod has done it 8 straight years. Throw in the fact that Glaus has a career average of .254 and the fact that he has played fewer than 100 games in two of the last three seasons and you can see you would be losing a tremendous amount at 3B.

But this is a two-player offer, and that second played, Carlos Lee, is a fantastic hitter in his own right. Lee (.297-15-33-30-3) has hit at least 24 HR with 80 RBIs the past six seasons and has upped those numbers with three straight seasons of at least 31 HR and 99 RBIs heading into 2006. Over the last three years he has also averaged 14 SBs per season as well, marking him as one of the top 10-15 OFs as far as all-around fantasy impact.

Would I make this trade? No. Is it a horrible move to make if you were to accept it? No.

My brother and I differ in our opinions of Scott Kazmir, specifically as to when, and not if, he will perform at a Cy Young type level. His walks are down this year, and only his control has held him previously. I think he can give Johan Santana a run for #1 SP in the AL this year, what do you think?
-- Brandon Tampa, FL

As much as I like Kazmir (6-2, 2.73 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) he belongs nowhere near Santana unless they happen to be standing next to one another on the outfield warning track while they are running windsprints prior to a game. Kazmir has indeed done a better job of keeping his balls over the plate, but he still has 20 BB in 56 IP (3.2 per 9 IP) and is allowing batters to hit .264 off him this year (compared to a .250 average coming into the season). On the plus side Kazmir has 56 K in 56 IP to give him strikeout per inning to go give him a solid 2.8 K:BB ratio.

To compare, Santana has a 4.6 K:BB ratio the past 3 years (he has upped the mark to 5.4 this year), well beyond what Kazmir is doing. Kazmir does have a light chance to rival Santana in K per 9 IP (9.0 for Kazmir, 10.3 for Santana), but while Santana has a career WHIP of 1.13, Kazmir has but a single month in his two plus seasons in which he has bettered that number (he has a 1.12 mark in three starts in May). Kazmir is 13-4 since the all-star break last year, Santana is 13-6, so there is a definite chance that we are witnessing Kazmir turn the proverbial corner, but I need more than 4 months to think he can even hold Santana’s jock. Check back with me in October, I will bet the answer to your question will be clear then, and it will be wait until next year.

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com. Also don’t forget to listen to his fantasy baseball radio show at www.fantasybaseball.com, where you can call in for live advice, on Friday’s from 2-3 PM EST.

Stolen Base Runs

2006-02-21T13:22:00.000-08:00

To read the full-story see: STOLEN BASE RUNS

Pete Palmer’s Linear Weights, akin to Bill James Win Shares, attempts to measure a players overall ability by taking into account everything the player does in all phases of the game including; pitching, hitting, fielding and baserunning. Stolen Base Runs is the base running component of the formula, an it is the focus of this article (to see a full description of the massive formula used for Linear Weights, see TOTAL BASEBALL, 8th Edition, pp.2668, 2670, 2673-4. One other note; Linear Weights has now been renamed Total Player Wins).

Historically the numbers used in Palmer’s formula were .30 for SB and -.60 for CS, but subsequent research has determined that .22 for SB and -.45 for CS is more accurate, so therefore the numbers that I will use in this study.

([.22*SB] – [.45*CS])

Here are the expnaded 2005 SB Runs leaders for MLB (all players with 5+ SB).

Name SB RUNS
Carl Crawford 6.52
José Reyes 6.45
Jimmy Rollins 6.32
Chone Figgins 5.99
Alfonso Soriano 5.70
Rafael Furcal 5.62
Juan Pierre 4.89
Jason Bay 4.17
Orlando Cabrera 3.72
Tony Womack 3.69
Ichiro Suzuki 3.66
Julio Lugo 3.63
Johnny Damon 3.51
Kenny Lofton 3.49
Ryan Freel 3.42
Bobby Abreu 2.77
Scott Podsednik 2.63
Reggie Sanders 2.63
Willie Bloomquist 2.63
Albert Pujols 2.62
Craig Counsell 2.57
Willy Taveras 2.53
Joe Mauer 2.41
Mike Cameron 2.41
Vladimir Guerrero 2.41
Damian Jackson 2.40
Rickie Weeks 2.40
Adam Kennedy 2.38
Nook Logan 2.36
Chase Utley 2.17
Marcus Giles 2.17
Joey Gathright 2.15
Craig Biggio 1.97
Derrek Lee 1.95
Álex Rodríguez 1.92
Torii Hunter 1.91
Omar Infante 1.76
Emil Brown 1.75
Cliff Floyd 1.74
Matt Holliday 1.73
Jayson Werth 1.52
Russ Adams 1.52
So Taguchi 1.52
Miguel Cairo 1.51
Royce Clayton 1.51
Adam Everett 1.47
Brian Roberts 1.44
Eric Chávez 1.32
Damon Hollins 1.31
Gary Sheffield 1.30
Héctor Luna 1.30
Cory Sullivan 1.29
Aaron Rowand 1.27
Bill Hall 1.26
Jason Repko 1.10
Khalil Greene 1.10
Orlando Hudson 1.09
Pete Orr 1.09
Pete Orr 1.09
David Newhan 1.08
Gary Matthews Jr. 1.08
Carlos Lee 1.06
Jacque Jones 1.06
Corey Patterson 1.05
Tadahito Iguchi 1.05
Carlos Beltrán 1.04
John McDonald 0.87
Kazuo Matsui 0.87
Marlon Anderson 0.87
Milton Bradley 0.87
Darin Erstad 0.85
Willie Harris 0.85
Derek Jeter 0.83
Omar Vizquel 0.78
Bubba Crosby 0.65
Chipper Jones 0.65
Marlon Byrd 0.65
Miguel Tejada 0.65
Moisés Alou 0.65
Shea Hillenbrand 0.65
Álex Cora 0.64
Eric Bruntlett 0.64
Eric Byrnes 0.64
Mark Teahen 0.64
Miguel Olivo 0.64
Tony Graffanino 0.64
Aaron Boone 0.63
Junior Spivey 0.63
Maicer Izturis 0.63
Antonio Pérez 0.62
Jermaine Dye 0.62
Brian Giles 0.61
Coco Crisp 0.60
David Wright 0.59
Bernie Castro 0.42
Jason Lane 0.42
Jeff Kent 0.42
Víctor Díaz 0.42
Craig Monroe 0.41
Jason Kendall 0.41
Vernon Wells 0.41
Jason Ellison 0.38
Grady Sizemore 0.34
Marco Scutaro 0.20
Michael Young 0.20
Trent Durrington 0.20
Iván Rodríguez 0.19
Jack Wilson 0.19
Édgar Rentería 0.18
Raúl Ibañez 0.18
Lew Ford 0.16
Felipe López 0.15
Ray Durham -0.03
Eric Hinske -0.04
Mark Loretta -0.04
Neifi Pérez -0.04
Rob Mackowiak -0.04
Shawn Green -0.04
Shawn Green -0.04
Steve Finley -0.04
Pablo Ozuna -0.07
Matt Lawton -0.09
Álex González -0.25
Andruw Jones -0.25
Brad Ausmus -0.25
David Dellucci -0.25
Larry Bigbie -0.25
Cristian Guzmán -0.26
Melvin Mora -0.26
Travis Lee -0.26
Jonny Gomes -0.27
Chris Burke -0.28
Jeff DaVanon -0.28
Luis Matos -0.31
Dave Roberts -0.34
Clint Barmes -0.48
Álex Sánchez -0.49
Jeromy Burnitz -0.70
Ángel Berroa -0.71
Shannon Stewart -0.71
Nick Punto -0.74
Randy Winn -0.77
Juan Encarnación -0.93
Mark Grudzielanek -0.94
Luis Castillo -0.95
Álex Ríos -0.97
David DeJesús -1.15
Jim Edmonds -1.15
Mark Kotsay -1.15
Brandon Inge -1.16
Eric Young -1.16
David Eckstein -1.18
Preston Wilson -1.38
Aubrey Huff -1.39
Reed Johnson -1.60
Morgan Ensberg -1.83
César Izturis -1.84
Jerry Hairston Jr. -2.29
Jeremy Reed -2.31
Brad Wilkerson -2.74
Brady Clark -3.65

2006 FANTASY BASEBALL GUIDE

2006-02-08T08:48:00.000-08:00

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2005 MVP Voting

2005-10-13T13:10:00.000-07:00

***This story can also be read at www.fantasybaseball.com.

One Man’s MVP Ballot
Contributed By: Ray Flowers

OK, so MLB isn’t knocking my door down looking for my thoughts in the 2005 MVP races, but that never stopped me before. Here is my MVP ballot, one that I hope makes sense to all of you even if you don’t necessarily agree with my conclusions.

AL MVP

Candidates: David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez

DAVID ORTIZ (.300-47-148-119-1)“Big Papi” is widely regarded as the heart and soul of the Red Sox. Seemingly always coming through with a clutch hit Ortiz lead the AL in RBI, was 2 nd in HR and 3 rd in Runs. One huge negative against him is that he played only 10 games at 1B this year.

ALEX RODRIGUEZ (.321-48-130-124-21)
The leader of the Yankees offense, Arod bounced back after his worst full-season last year setting an all-time Yankees record for HR by a right hander in 2005 (46 by Joe D. was the old mark). Arod led the AL in HR, was 2 nd in AVG and finished 4 th in RBI. Arod is also in line to win a Gold Glove this year with an excellent defensive season in the books.

MANNY RAMIREZ (.292-45-144-112-1)
Often overlooked with the Big Papi fervor in Boston, Manny had his 2 nd consecutive 40 HR 130 RBI season and 4 th of his career (ties Ken Griffey Jr. and Sammy Sosa for most such seasons amongst active players). Finished 2 nd to teammate Ortiz in RBI, was 3rd in HR, and 7 th in Runs in the AL.

ANALYSIS

Let’s compare the three men in the following offensive categories:

AVG-HR-RBI-Runs-SB-OBP-SLG-OPS

Ortiz – .300-47-148-119-1 with .397/.604/1.001

Arod – .321-48-130-124-21 with .421/.610/1.031

Ramirez – .292-45-144-112-1 with .388/.594/.982

Listed below is each man’s ranking amongst AL hitters.

Ortiz – .300 (14 th), 47 HR (2 nd), 148 RBI (1 st), 119 Runs (3 rd), .397 OBP (4 th), .604 SLG (2 nd), 1.001 OPS (3 rd)

Arod – .321 (2 nd), 48 HR (1 st), 130 RBI (4 th), 124 Runs (1 st), .421 OBP (2 nd), .610 SLG (1 st), 1.031 OPS (1 st)

Ramirez – .292 (22 nd),45 HR (3 rd), 144 (2 nd), 112 Runs (7 th), .388 OB (7 th), .594 SLG (4 th), .982 OPS (4 th)

If you add up those rankings, with the lowest number being the best, here is what you get:

Ortiz – 27
Arod – 12
Ramirez – 49

Much like Andruw Jones in the NL, Ortiz has been billed as the ultimate “clutch” performer this year, so let’s look at the numbers to see if that belief is supported by fact.

Ortiz
Runners on base: .315 with a 1.006 OPS
RISP: .352 with a 1.043 OPS
RISP with 2 Outs: .368 with a 1.226 OPS
* 289 AB with runners on base produced 119 RBI, or one RBI per 2.43 AB.

Arod
Runners on base: .305 with a .957 OPS
RISP: .290with a .894 OPS
RISP with 2 Outs: .302 with a .940 OPS
* 305 AB with runners on base produced 103 RBI, or one RBI per 2.96 AB.

Ramirez
Runners on base: .346- with a 1.182 OPS
RISP: .358 with a 1.244 OPS
RISP with 2 Outs: .301 with a 1.063 OPS
* 280 AB with runners on base produced 131 RBI, or one RBI per 2.14 AB.

Well, Ortiz sure was a clutch hitter, an a fantastic one at that, but look at his teammate Ramirez. Manny averaged an RBI every 2.14 AB with a runner on base!!! I know it might be taboo to say, but the best “clutch” hitter in Boston this year was the aloof LF Manny Ramirez and NOT Big Papi!

How about their September/October performance?

Otiz hit .321-11-30-20
Arod hit .330-8-25-26
Ramirez hit .309-12-29-21

One last area we need to cover, and that is defense. Arod will probably win the Gold Glove this year after committing only 12 errors all year. Manny, well he is a pure adventure out there playing the Green Monster, but at least he is out there. Ortiz played 1B in only 10 games this year, and I don’t care how good a hitter he was, he only played half of the game, and that just isn’t what an MVP should do (there are gloves for a reason). Plus, his hitting was almost exactly matched by Ramirez in every category including “clutch” hitting, so I just don’t see how the voting should lean toward Ortiz.

RESULTS

4. Travis Hafner. (.305-33-108-94-0 with a 1.003 OPS). Just like Ortiz, Hafner failed to play half the game appearing in but a single game this year in the field. Led the Indians late charge with 11 HR and 26 RBI in September.

3. David Ortiz. Teammates Ortiz and Ramirez will probably split some of the votes since they should be considered the 2 nd and 3 rd best hitters in the AL this year. Ortiz just can’t win the award, he doesn’t play defense. Even the often-lost Ramirez gives it a shot.

2. Manny Ramirez. Quietly just as productive as the man who gets all the publicity in BOS, is this the quietest 144 RBI ever? With the game on the line this is the Red Sox I would want at the plate, and the numbers support that view.

1. ARod. Undoubtedly the best all-around player in the game, this is the type of performance that should result from the largest contract in the game. If Arod doesn’t win the award this year, an I can’t believe I’m saying this since I despise the guy, he will have been robbed worse than that poor slob who Bill Gates stole the DOS operating system from all those years ago.

NL MVP

Candidates: Andruw Jones, Albert Pujols and Derrek Lee

ANDRUW JONES (.263-51-128-95-5)
Unquestionably the best defensive player under consideration, Jones posted career highs in HR and RBI this year leading the NL in both categories. Jones is often credited with leading an injury depleted Braves team to the playoffs, and while there is no disputing the fact that he was often protected by less than “seasoned” major league players, should this really be a deciding factor in the race?

ALBERT PUJOLS (.330-41-117-129-16)
Pujols lead the NL in Runs, was 2 nd in AVG and 3 rd in HR while leading all 1B in SB with 16 (his previous career high was 5). Much has been made of Jones leading a Braves team with little offensive help, but were the Cardinals really a better offensive team this year? I mean the last time I looked Scott Rolen played in only 56 games, Jim Edmonds had his worst season since coming to St. Louis, Reggie Sanders suffered multiple injures limiting him to only 93 games and Larry Walker could only be found in the trainers room for large portions of the season (100 games). Does that really give Pujols a “better” lineup hitting around him than Jones?

DERREK LEE (.335-46-107-120-15)
The talk of a Triple Crown died as the season progressed, but no Cub fan or fantasy owner of Lee could complain. Easily eclipsing his career highs of .282-32-98, Lee finished just a single hit away from his first 200 hit season (his previous career high was 168). Lee also played his usual stellar defense at 1B, but the Cubs dismal finish, in the mind of most, sunk his chances to win the award.

ANAYLSIS

Let’s compare the three men in the following offensive categories:

AVG-HR-RBI-Runs-SB-OBP-SLG-OPS

Jones - .263-51-128-95-5 with .347/.575/.922

Pujols - .330-41-117-129-16 with .430/.609/1.039

Lee - .335-46-107-120-15 with .418/.662/1.080

So despite leading the NL in HR and RBI Jones finishes last amongst our three in Slg% and over .100 points behind the other two in OPS! In fact, Jones .922 OPS was only the 12 th best in the NL, extremely unimpressive for an MVP candidate don’t you think (Lee led the NL and Pujols was 2 nd)? Another interesting fact is that Jones’ OBP of .347 is barely ahead of the other two men’s batting average… does that signify an MVP season?

Listed below is each man’s ranking amongst NL hitters.

Jones - .263 (50 th), 51 HR (1 st), 128 RBI (1 st), 95 Runs (15 th), .347 OBP (40 th), .575 Slg% (5 th), .922 OPS (12 th).

Pujols - .330 (2 nd), 41 HR (3 rd), 117 (2 nd), 129 Runs (1 st), .430 OBP (2 nd), .609 Slg% (2 nd), 1.039 OPS (2 nd).

Lee - .335 (1 st), 46 HR (2 nd), 107 (7 th), 120 Runs (2 nd), .418 OBP (4 th), .662 Slg% (1 st), 1.080 OPS (1 st).

If you add up those rankings, with the lowest number being the best, here is what you get:

Jones – 124
Pujols – 14
Lee – 18

Yikes is right.

The last point put out there by Jones supporters is that Andruw was “clutch” all year long which is why he lead the NL in RBI. Do the numbers really back that up?

Jones
Runners on base: .236 with a .823 OPS
RISP: .207 with a .721 OPS
RISP with 2 Outs: .244 with a .880 OPS
* 297 AB with runners on base and produced 96 RBI, or one RBI per 3.09AB.

Pujols
Runners on base: .313 with a 1.032 OPS
RISP: .329 with a 1.093 OPS
RISP with 2 Outs: .308 with a 1.113 OPS
* 272 AB with runners on base produced 96 RBI, or one RBI per 2.83 AB.

Lee
Runners on Base: .309 with a .995 OPS
RISP: .331 with a 1.133 OPS
RISP with 2 Outs: .308 with a 1.096 OPS
* 236 AB with runners on base produced 76 RBI, or one RBI per 3.11 AB.

So despite leading the NL in RBI Jones was actually the WORST “clutch” hitter amongst the group, and the only reason he had more RBI than the other two hitters was because he had more opportunities with runners on base!

RESULTS

3. Andruw Jones. Despite his defense, Jones finishes a distant 3 rd in any rational person’s MVP vote. If he finishes higher than that, I would seriously question the writers wisdom and whether or not the current system of voting should continue into the future.

2. Derrek Lee. Unfortunately his teams poor finish will distract slightly from his overall performance. Also, the fact that this was obviously his career year might cause some writers to devalue him versus Pujols mind-numbing consistency. This is really one of the closets MVP calls in recent memory. If he won, I really couldn’t put up a strong argument against him.

1. Albert Pujols. Has to be given a little bit of credit for leading his team to the division title. Also, in ALL 5 years of this man’s career he has hit at least .314, with at least 34 HR, with at least 117 RBI, with at least 112 Runs, with at least 185 hits with at least a .955 OPS. Get out to the ballpark to watch this man, in 15 years he will be considered one of the 10 best overall hitters who ever lived.

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and FSWA, can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@fantasybaseball.com.

AUGUST QUICK HITS

2005-08-11T15:08:00.000-07:00
1) August and September call-ups and how they usually fair, what the numbers historically are like for guys like Francoeur and Felix Hernandez.

Jeff Francoeur (.419-8-23-21 in 86 AB)
~ No one is this good.
~ In his 86 AB he has ZERO BB.
~ He was only hitting .275-13-62 in 84 games for the AA Mississippi Braves prior to his call-up this year.

Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners – (9-4, 2.25, 100, 1.25 at AAA)
~ Best pitching prospect in the minors. Most often compared to Dwight Gooden.
~ Dominated w/o throwing his best pitch his slider (the team didn’t want him throwing it at his young age of 19).
~ Allowed only 62 hits in 88 IP this year (48 BB).
~ in 2 MLB starts: 1-1, 0.69 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 10 K versus 2 BB in 13 IP.

2) Return of Nomar and Corey Patterson and their fantasy impacts

Corey Patterson (.231-11-24-37-12)
~ Hit .158 in his last 120 MLB AB.
~ Did hit .297 with a .366 OBP an a .505 Slg% in 24 minor league games after hitting only .214 in his first 73 AB.
~ He did go 20/20 last year and was on pace to do that again this year before demotion (only 9 guys went 20/20 in 2004).

NOMAR
~6 for 19 since he returned (.316).
~ A career .320 hitter with a .912 OPS.
~ Numbers last year + this: .289-10-47-60 in 391 AB.
~ Huge impact replacing Neifi Perez.

3) ATHLETICS
Since the ALL_STAR BREAK: 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Zito+Harden+ Blanton = 11-3, 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP.

HITTING
Mark Ellis (.310-3-31-38-1)
~ Since the break: .394-2-17-19.
~ In his last 39 games: .336-3-24-27

DAN JOHNSON (.317-10-31-37)
~ .353-6-13-19 in 24 games since the break.

ASTROS
~PITCHING STAFF: SINCE the BREAK : 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
~ Since the all-star break Clemens + Pettitte + Oswalt = 9-4, 1.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP.

HITTING
Jason Lane (.257-17-50-40-6)
~ Since the break: .359-3-10-8 in 20 games

Morgan Ensberg (.295-31-87-68-6)
~ Since the break: .313-7-22 in 26 games.

4) CARLOS BELTRAN (.269-13-59-57-9)
~ Struggled all year especially in JUNE when he hits .198 in 101 AB.
~ In his CAREER after the all-star break
He hits .027 HIGHER (.297)
He has a .029 higher OBP (.367)
He has a .068 higher SLG (.524)
He has a .097 higher OPS
AND
He has stolen 11 more bases despite playing in 147 less 2nd half games!

The Rafael Palmiero Saga

2005-08-04T13:54:00.000-07:00
Prettymuch eveyone in the world has written thier opinion on this guy, and while I'm inlcined to believe someone is innocent until proven guilty, it sure doesn't look to good for this former boy scout.

I weighed in on the topic in two places this week.

(1) http://athomeplate.com/palmeirosteroid.shtml

In this piece 4 writers from the AHP staff gave thier views on Raffy's drug use. Here is a quote from my piece:

Giambi, Bonds, McGwire and Sammy Sosa might have used steroids but none of them was ever caught with their hand in the cookie jar. Palmeiro’s hand is so deep in the cookie jar that he has chocolate covering his whole body like Augustus Gloop, the child who falls into the chocolate river in Willy Wonka.

(2) http://www.fantasybaseball.com/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=280
(You can sign up for FREE to read this one and to have access to all www.fantasybaseball.com pieces).

In this piece, I examined whether or not, steroids or not, Palmeiro's record showed him to be a Hall of Famer. Suprisingly to most, I decided, based solely on his numbers, that is not worthy of the Hall. A snipet from that piece:

~ Palmeiro NEVER led the league in AVG, HR, RBI or OPS.
~ Palmeiro NEVER won the MVP, and in fact finished 5 th out of our five 1B in our review of MVP voting.
~ Palmeiro made only 4 all-star teams, the fewest out of the five 1B that we surveyed.
~ And the capper…despite an illustrious career that included a marvelous series of consistently good season, Palmeiro was NEVER the best 1B in his league for a single season in his career.

Those of you that are interested should be able to find all your Raffy info in these two selections.

Sports Illustrated Weekly Column

2005-05-20T16:08:00.000-07:00

Hello there everyone, and thanks for stopping by.

I have big news to report, well at least its some news, but whether or not it is big is another matter.

I have recently been fortunate enough to have been given a weekly column for SPORTS ILLUSTRATED. The weekly article is, of course, on fantasy baseball and can only be read exclusively on http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/fantasy/ for free. In this weekly cloumn I will be answering readers questions in regards to what trades they should and shouldn't make (it's a milbag column).

You can read this weeks column at:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/fantasy/08/11/fantasy.mailbag/index.html

If you have any fantasy related questions please email them to me at:

ray@fantasybaseball.com

and if you send me something really worthwhile, you just might read your answer on SI.com!

ALSO>>>
Dont forget to tune it Fridays to hear yours truly and Craig Davis with our weekly fantasy show. The show is live on Fridays from 2PM- 3 PM EST. If you want to join us with a question, just go to www.fantasybaseball.com, link to the Radio Show Page (THE PAYOFF PITCH), and you can find the number to call in.

*** A special thanks to Ryan Houston of Fantasy Planet for helping to get me the gig (FP is the parent company for fantasybaseball.com).

Fantasy Trading Philosophies

2005-04-20T10:16:00.000-07:00
We've all seen it, some lopsided deal where someone moves a hot JULIO LUGO for a struggling ERIC CHAVEZ...and you think to yourself 'damn it, I wish I had made an offer.' So you put your thinking cap on and do just that, you start making offers. But to your surprise you get a series of nasty replies saying things like 'do you think I'm crazy' or 'why in the hell would I do that.' What gives?

The truth of the matter is people value players differently, and therein lies the problem. Some people play the hot hand, others pounce and try to buy the guy who is struggling so bad that his own mother may not let him in her house. My thoughts...

Buy LOW sell high. Dont go out and try to shoot for the moon and trade for BRIAN ROBERTS right now. Roberts is hitting .421 (2nd in the AL), 6 HR (2nd), 17 RBI (2nd), and dont fall off your seat, but he is leading the AL in OBP, SLG% and OPS!!!
(.516, .849, 1.365...numbers that wouldn't look out of place with Barry Bonds)

But is this 5 foot 9 sparkplug suddenly going to move from career highs of 5 HR and 53 RBI to 25 HR 100 RBI guy in the leadoff spot? Of course not, but he is on pace right now to blow away those numbers.

So here is where you pounce...I know this might sound crazy to some of you, but I would TRADE him right now. No ones value will ever be higher, and even is he finishes the year with a .300-18-75 line, that means he's only gonna hit .280-12-58 the rest of the year. Why not try an trade for ALFONSO SORIANO? Do you think he will go .280-12-58 the rest of the year? You bet your A.. he will.

I'd even recommend the same tactics with JEFF KENT who is also smoking hot (.353-4-13 with 17 runs). If Kent averages .290-25-100, numbers he's had for the last hundred or so years, that means he's a .280-21-87 guy the rest of the year. Why not trade him for Soriano? Heck, BRETT BOONE will probably produce those numbers the rest of the year.

So think about trading a guy who is on fire right now for someone you know will be there in the end, I bet the strategy works our for you when all is said and done.

2004 AVERAGE GAME SCORE SEASON

2005-03-10T22:34:00.000-08:00
2004 AGSS

R. Johnson, Ari 64.92
J. Santana, Min 64.56
B. Sheets, Mil 62.68
J. Schmidt, SF 62.03
O. Perez, Pit 61.20
J. Peavy, SD 59.69
R. Clemens, Hou 59.57
C. Schilling, Bos 59.42
C. Zambrano, ChC 59.20
C. Pavano, Fla 57.18
P. Martinez, Bos 56.52
L. Hernandez, Mon 56.17
C. Carpenter, StL 56.14
R. Oswalt, Hou 55.69
F. Garcia, CWS/Sea 55.68
M. Clement, ChC 55.40
O. Perez, LA 55.28
K. Escobar, Ana 54.38
D. Davis, Mil 54.23
J. Wright, Atl 54.21
J. Westbrook, Cle 54.18
A. Leiter, NYM 53.94
B. Radke, Min 53.86
T. Lilly, Tor 53.27
T. Hudson, Oak 53.20
R. Harden, Oak 53.11
M. Buehrle, CWS 52.76
G. Maddux, ChC 52.59
D. Wells, SD 52.37
J. Weaver, LA 52.18
T. Glavine, NYM 52.14
C. Sabathia, Cle 52.10
J. Lima, LA 51.94
B. Arroyo, Bos 51.94
J. Marquis, StL 51.33
J. Thomson, Atl 51.17
B. Webb, Ari 50.83
W. Williams, StL 50.82
J. Bonderman, Det 50.66
K. Benson, NYM/Pit 50.60
M. Mulder, Oak 50.43
D. Willis, Fla 50.41
B. Tomko, SF 50.13
R. Ortiz, Atl 50.13
B. Zito, Oak 49.97
A. Eaton, SD 49.87
E. Milton, Phi 49.85
P. Wilson, Cin 49.74
J. Vazquez, NYY 49.69
S. Trachsel, NYM 49.68
J. Suppan, StL 49.45
M. Morris, StL 49.22
B. Lawrence, SD 49.09
J. Lackey, Ana 48.96
B. Colon, Ana 48.55
J. Lieber, NYY 48.49
M. Maroth, Det 48.48
N. Robertson, Det 48.45
R. Drese, Tex 48.37
C. Lidle, Cin/Phi 47.81
J. Garland, CWS 47.76
K. Ishii, LA 47.71
M. Hampton, Atl 47.23
T. Wakefield, Bos 47.16
J. Contreras, CWS/NYY 46.83
C. Lee, Cle 46.76
M. Batista, Tor 46.75
C. Silva, Min 46.73
K. Rogers, Tex 46.70
R. Franklin, Sea 46.58
J. Moyer, Sea 46.55
J. Fogg, Pit 46.40
J. Johnson, Det 46.19
M. Redman, Oak 46.16
M. Hendrickson, TB 45.79
B. Myers, Phi 45.23
K. Rueter, SF 44.29
S. Ponson, Bal 44.07
I. Valdez, SD/Fla 43.87
J. Jennings, Col 43.79
E. Loaiza, CWS/NYY 43.74
S. Estes, Col 43.41
K. Lohse, Min 43.15
D. May, KC 43.13
D. Lowe, Bos 42.10
B. Anderson, KC 40.42

FORMULA

AGSS = (GS x50) + 2(IP after the 4th) + Outs + K – 4(ER) – 2 (UER) - BB

STEP I
You begin with the GS total of a pitcher. Matt Clement started 30 games

STEP II
The next step in the process is take the GS total and multiple that number by 50 (since the original GMSC starts out with a baseline of 50).

Clement 30 GS x 50 = 1500 which equals our GMSC Points for the Season.

STEP III
For the IP after the 4th inning you would figure out the total like this:
2 [IP - (GS x 4)]
Clement pitched 181 innings.
2 [181 – (30 X 4)]
2 [181-120]
2[61] = 122
122 points for IP after the 4th inning for the equation.

STEP IV
Simply figure the pitchers GMSC for the entire season.

Clement: 543 Outs/190 K/155 Hits/74 ER/ 79 Runs (therefore 5 UER)/77 BB

Clement = 1500 + Outs + 2(IP after the 4th) + K – 2(hits) – 4(ER) – 2 (UER) – BB
= (1500 + 543 + 122 + 190) – 2(155) – 4(74) – 2(5) – 77
= 2355 – 310 – 296 – 10 – 77
= 2355 – 693
= 1662

STEP V
You then take the final number from Step IV and divide that by the Games Started total in order to arrive out our final score…our AVERAGE GAME SCORE SEASON (AGSS).

Clement: 1662 / GS 30

AGSS = 55.40

What AGSS says is that for each start Clement made in 2004, his average Game Score was 55.40.

2004 TERA Leaders (Triple ERA)

2005-03-10T15:22:00.000-08:00
(Based on 162 IP)

Player, Team TERA
R. Johnson, Ari 2.29
J. Santana, Min 2.56
B. Sheets, Mil 2.61
J. Schmidt, SF 2.87
J. Peavy, SD 2.89
R. Clemens, Hou 2.97
C. Schilling, Bos 3.08
O. Perez, Pit 3.16
C. Zambrano, ChC 3.21
C. Pavano, Fla 3.22
J. Wright, Atl 3.30
R. Oswalt, Hou 3.41
B. Radke, Min 3.50
T. Hudson, Oak 3.53
D. Davis, Mil 3.53
C. Carpenter, StL 3.55
O. Perez, LA 3.58
F. Garcia, CWS/Sea 3.64
D. Wells, SD 3.66
P. Martinez, Bos 3.66
J. Westbrook, Cle 3.68
L. Hernandez, Mon 3.72
T. Glavine, NYM 3.77
R. Harden, Oak 3.78
K. Escobar, Ana 3.80
M. Clement, ChC 3.84
B. Arroyo, Bos 3.86
J. Thomson, Atl 3.90
J. Weaver, LA 3.90
A. Leiter, NYM 3.91
K. Benson, NYM/Pit 3.94
M. Buehrle, CWS 4.04
B. Tomko, SF 4.06
G. Maddux, ChC 4.07
D. Willis, Fla 4.08
B. Webb, Ari 4.10
W. Williams, StL 4.11
C. Sabathia, Cle 4.11
J. Lieber, NYY 4.13
T. Lilly, Tor 4.16
R. Drese, Tex 4.25
A. Eaton, SD 4.33
J. Marquis, StL 4.34
J. Bonderman, Det 4.35
B. Lawrence, SD 4.36
S. Trachsel, NYM 4.37
J. Lackey, Ana 4.39
J. Lima, LA 4.43
M. Mulder, Oak 4.46
J. Suppan, StL 4.47
B. Zito, Oak 4.49
M. Maroth, Det 4.49
M. Hampton, Atl 4.49
R. Ortiz, Atl 4.53
C. Silva, Min 4.53
P. Wilson, Cin 4.55
C. Lidle, Cin/Phi 4.59
M. Hendrickson, TB 4.60
J. Vazquez, NYY 4.63
J. Fogg, Pit 4.64
M. Morris, StL 4.65
J. Johnson, Det 4.67
N. Robertson, Det 4.70
K. Rogers, Tex 4.75
E. Milton, Phi 4.85
B. Colon, Ana 4.87
K. Ishii, LA 4.87
T. Wakefield, Bos 4.89
J. Garland, CWS 4.90
M. Batista, Tor 4.92
K. Rueter, SF 4.93
M. Redman, Oak 4.99
D. Lowe, Bos 5.04
S. Ponson, Bal 5.05
R. Franklin, Sea 5.08
C. Lee, Cle 5.22
J. Contreras, CWS/NYY 5.26
B. Myers, Phi 5.26
J. Moyer, Sea 5.32
I. Valdez, SD/Fla 5.40
K. Lohse, Min 5.41
J. Jennings, Col 5.47
E. Loaiza, CWS/NYY 5.53
D. May, KC 5.57
S. Estes, Col 5.76
B. Anderson, KC 5.89

FORMULA

2004 ERA/ ERC /DIPS
Jason Schmidt 3.20 /2.37/ 3.03

So to get Schmidt’s TERA here is what the equation looks like.

Ex.

TERA = ERA + ERC + DIPS / 3
TERA = 3.20 + 2.37 + 3.03 / 3
TERA = 8.60 / 3
TERA = 2.866

So Jason Schmidt’s 2004 TERA is 2.87.

2004 DIPS ERA Leaders

2005-03-10T15:11:00.000-08:00
(Based on 162 IP)

Player, Team DIPS
R. Johnson, Ari 2.44
B. Sheets, Mil 2.75
J. Santana, Min 3.01
J. Schmidt, SF 3.03
J. Peavy, SD 3.21
R. Clemens, Hou 3.21
C. Schilling, Bos 3.22
R. Oswalt, Hou 3.27
J. Wright, Atl 3.4
O. Perez, Pit 3.5
C. Pavano, Fla 3.56
T. Hudson, Oak 3.6
P. Martinez, Bos 3.64
B. Radke, Min 3.66
C. Zambrano, ChC 3.68
D. Davis, Mil 3.71
F. Garcia, CWS/Sea 3.74
R. Harden, Oak 3.77
J. Lieber, NYY 3.79
K. Benson, NYM/Pit 3.8
K. Escobar, Ana 3.81
C. Carpenter, StL 3.88
B. Arroyo, Bos 3.88
J. Weaver, LA 3.91
J. Thomson, Atl 3.96
D. Wells, SD 4
D. Willis, Fla 4.01
L. Hernandez, Mon 4.05
M. Clement, ChC 4.06
J. Lackey, Ana 4.11
W. Williams, StL 4.16
J. Westbrook, Cle 4.19
R. Drese, Tex 4.21
M. Buehrle, CWS 4.23
O. Perez, LA 4.24
J. Bonderman, Det 4.24
A. Eaton, SD 4.27
T. Glavine, NYM 4.28
J. Johnson, Det 4.28
C. Sabathia, Cle 4.31
B. Tomko, SF 4.32
G. Maddux, ChC 4.33
D. Lowe, Bos 4.36
B. Webb, Ari 4.4
B. Lawrence, SD 4.43
M. Hampton, Atl 4.44
C. Silva, Min 4.48
K. Rogers, Tex 4.49
M. Hendrickson, TB 4.49
S. Ponson, Bal 4.52
B. Zito, Oak 4.53
N. Robertson, Det 4.53
C. Lidle, Cin/Phi 4.55
T. Lilly, Tor 4.56
M. Maroth, Det 4.59
J. Marquis, StL 4.61
M. Mulder, Oak 4.66
J. Fogg, Pit 4.68
J. Vazquez, NYY 4.74
P. Wilson, Cin 4.76
S. Trachsel, NYM 4.79
A. Leiter, NYM 4.84
R. Ortiz, Atl 4.84
J. Suppan, StL 4.86
C. Lee, Cle 4.91
J. Jennings, Col 4.91
M. Morris, StL 4.92
B. Colon, Ana 4.94
K. Lohse, Min 5.01
J. Lima, LA 5.03
M. Redman, Oak 5.04
K. Rueter, SF 5.06
T. Wakefield, Bos 5.06
B. Myers, Phi 5.1
M. Batista, Tor 5.11
E. Loaiza, CWS/NYY 5.16
D. May, KC 5.17
J. Contreras, CWS/NYY 5.22
E. Milton, Phi 5.23
J. Garland, CWS 5.24
R. Franklin, Sea 5.26
K. Ishii, LA 5.44
S. Estes, Col 5.57
J. Moyer, Sea 5.63
I. Valdez, SD/Fla 5.64
B. Anderson, KC 5.66

*** To download a spreadsheet to do your own DIPS calculations go to Larry Mahnken’s website (http://yankeefan.blogspot.com) and look for DIPS WORKSHEET on the left hand side.

DIPS D&D Version

Let’s use Jason Schmidt’s 20004 season again. Here are his totals:
IP H HR BB K
225 165 18 77 251

(IP*2.35) + (H*0.805) + (HR*10.76) + (BB*2.76) – (K*1.53)
_________________________________________________
(IP*0.712) + (H*.244) + (K*0.096) – (HR*0.244)

Yeah, and this is the simple version!

NUMERATOR
(225*2.35) + (165*.805) + (18*10.76) + (77*2.76) – (251*1.53)
528.75 + 132.825 + 193.68 + 212.52 – 384.03
1067.775 - 384.03
683.745

DENOMINATOR
(225*.712) + (165*.244) + (251*.096) – (18*.244)
160.2 + 40.26 + 24.096 – 4.392
224.556 - 4.392
220.164

6837.745 / 220.164
3.106
Therefore, Jason Schmidt’s DIPS, Down and Dirty style, was 3.11 in 2004 (just off his “longer” DIPS total of 3.03 listed in the story).

2004 COMPONENT ERA Leaders (ERC)

2005-03-10T14:54:00.000-08:00
2004 ERC LEADERS
(Based on 162 IP)

R. Johnson, Ari 1.83
J. Santana, Min 2.07
B. Sheets, Mil 2.37
J. Schmidt, SF 2.37
R. Clemens, Hou 2.73
C. Schilling, Bos 2.76
O. Perez, Pit 2.99
C. Pavano, Fla 3.10
J. Peavy, SD 3.19
J. Wright, Atl 3.21
C. Zambrano, ChC 3.21
D. Wells, SD 3.24
O. Perez, LA 3.26
C. Carpenter, StL 3.32
B. Radke, Min 3.36
F. Garcia, CWS/Sea 3.37
T. Glavine, NYM 3.43
P. Martinez, Bos 3.44
T. Hudson, Oak 3.45
R. Oswalt, Hou 3.46
J. Westbrook, Cle 3.46
D. Davis, Mil 3.49
L. Hernandez, Mon 3.52
R. Harden, Oak 3.58
K. Escobar, Ana 3.65
B. Arroyo, Bos 3.66
A. Leiter, NYM 3.69
K. Benson, NYM/Pit 3.72
M. Clement, ChC 3.78
J. Weaver, LA 3.79
B. Tomko, SF 3.82
T. Lilly, Tor 3.85
G. Maddux, ChC 3.87
C. Sabathia, Cle 3.91
J. Bonderman, Det 3.93
W. Williams, StL 3.99
M. Buehrle, CWS 4.00
J. Thomson, Atl 4.01
A. Eaton, SD 4.11
J. Lima, LA 4.19
D. Willis, Fla 4.21
J. Vazquez, NYY 4.23
J. Lieber, NYY 4.27
M. Mulder, Oak 4.28
M. Morris, StL 4.30
C. Lidle, Cin/Phi 4.32
B. Webb, Ari 4.32
S. Trachsel, NYM 4.32
R. Drese, Tex 4.33
J. Suppan, StL 4.38
J. Lackey, Ana 4.40
B. Zito, Oak 4.45
K. Ishii, LA 4.47
M. Hendrickson, TB 4.51
B. Lawrence, SD 4.53
P. Wilson, Cin 4.54
J. Garland, CWS 4.56
M. Maroth, Det 4.57
E. Milton, Phi 4.57
J. Fogg, Pit 4.59
J. Johnson, Det 4.60
R. Ortiz, Atl 4.61
B. Colon, Ana 4.65
N. Robertson, Det 4.66
J. Marquis, StL 4.70
T. Wakefield, Bos 4.74
M. Hampton, Atl 4.76
M. Batista, Tor 4.85
C. Silva, Min 4.89
K. Rueter, SF 4.99
K. Rogers, Tex 5.00
J. Contreras, CWS/NYY 5.06
R. Franklin, Sea 5.08
J. Moyer, Sea 5.13
B. Myers, Phi 5.17
M. Redman, Oak 5.23
C. Lee, Cle 5.31
D. Lowe, Bos 5.33
S. Ponson, Bal 5.34
I. Valdez, SD/Fla 5.38
S. Estes, Col 5.86
K. Lohse, Min 5.89
D. May, KC 5.94
J. Jennings, Col 5.99
B. Anderson, KC 6.36

In order to come up with ERC, a two-part equation is necessary.

A)
PTB = 0.89 x [(1.255 x (H-HR) + 4 x HR)] + 0.56 x (BB+HBP-IBB)
*PTB (Pitchers Total Base Estimate)

Let’s use Jason Schmidt’s 20004 season again. Here are his totals:
Hits HR BB IBB HBP BFP IP
165 18 77 3 3 907 225
*BFP = Batters Faced Pitchers (total batters against)

PTB = 0.89 x [1.255 x (165-18) + 4(18)] + 0.56 x (77+3-3)
PTB = 0.89 x [1.255 x (147)+72] + 0.56(77)
PTB = 0.89 x [184.485+72] + 43.12
PTB = 0.89 x [256.485] + 43.12
PTB = 228.272 + 43.12
PTB = 271.392

B)
ERC = [(H+BB+HBP) x PTB / (BFP x IP)] x 9 – 0.56

ERC = [(165+77+3) x 271.392 / (907 x 225)] x 9 – 0.56
ERC = [245 x 271.392 / 204075] x 9 – 0.56
ERC = [66491.04 / 204075] x 9 – 0.56
ERC = [.326] x 9 – 0.56
ERC = 2.934 – 0.56
ERC = 2.374

Therefore, Jason Schmidt’s ERC in 2004 was 2.37.

PWSA...POWER SPEED AVERAGE

2005-01-19T20:33:00.000-08:00
POWER SPEED AVERAGE, or PWSA, is an invention to determine the relative value of players in the categories of HR an SB (it is meant to replace Power Speed Number of Bill James).

To review, here is the formula to figure out PWSA.

PWSA = [(HR x Ratio) + (SB x Ratio)] x 10

For the 2004 season here are the ratios:

HR = There were 5451 HR.
This means that each HR was worth 0.000183 (1/5451

SB = There were 2589 SB.
This means that each SB was worth 0.000386 (1/ 2589)

EXAMPLE

Lew Ford had 15 HR and 20 SB.
PWSA = [(HR x Ratio) + (SB x Ratio)] x 10
(15*0.000183) + (20*0.000386) x 10
(0.002745 + .00772) x 10
Therefore Lew Ford's 2004 PWSA is .105.

Here are the 2004 PWSA Leaders

Player/Team/ PWSA
S. Podsednik, Mil /0.292
C. Crawford, TB /0.248
C. Beltran, KC/Hou /0.232
B. Abreu, Phi /0.209
J. Pierre, Fla 0.179
A. Rodriguez, NYY /0.174
C. Patterson, ChC /0.167
D. Roberts, Bos/LA /0.154
I. Suzuki, Sea /0.154
R. Freel, Cin /0.148
J. Rollins, Phi/ 0.141
C. Figgins, Ana /0.140
M. Cameron, NYM /0.140
R. Furcal, Atl /0.138
E. Chavez, Mon /0.133
D. Jeter, NYY /0.131
V. Guerrero, Ana/ 0.129
M. Lawton, Cle /0.125
T. Hunter, Min/ 0.123
R. Sanders, StL/ 0.121
A. Soriano, Tex /0.121
B. Roberts, Bal /0.119
A. Beltre, LA /0.115
T. Batista, Mon /0.113
J. Damon, Bos /0.110
A. Rowand, CWS /0.110
T. Womack, StL /0.110
B. Wilkerson, Mon/ 0.109
J. Edmonds, StL /0.108
A. Dunn, Cin /0.107
R. Winn, Sea /0.107
B. Bonds, SF /0.106
D. Lee, ChC /0.105
C. Crisp, Cle /0.105
L. Ford, Min /0.105
C. Izturis, LA /0.104
A. Pujols, StL /0.103
J. Drew, Atl /0.103
E. Byrnes, Oak /0.102
S. Finley, LA/Ari/ 0.101
C. Lee, CWS /0.099
R. Baldelli, TB /0.095
J. Jones, Min /0.094
J. Lugo, TB /0.094
M. Bradley, LA /0.093
M. Mora, Bal /0.092
L. Berkman, Hou /0.090
J. Burnitz, Col /0.087
M. Young, Tex /0.087
O. Vizquel, Cle /0.086
J. Valentin, CWS/ 0.086
G. Sheffield, NYY/ 0.085
L. Castillo, Fla/ 0.085
T. Redman, Pit /0.084
E. Renteria, StL/ 0.084
C. Guillen, Det /0.083
B. Boone, Sea /0.083
J. DaVanon, Ana /0.082
R. Mackowiak, Pit/ 0.081
J. Cruz Jr., TB /0.081
B. Giles, SD /0.081
C. Koskie, Min /0.080
M. Giles, Atl /0.080
O. Cabrera, Bos/Mon/ 0.080
M. Cabrera, Fla /0.080
O. Infante, Det /0.079
A. Sanchez, Det /0.077
W. Harris, CWS /0.077
J. Reyes, NYM /0.077
V. Wells, Tor /0.077
J. Uribe, CWS /0.077
J. Kent, Hou /0.076
C. Pena, Det /0.076
A. Jones, Atl /0.076
E. Chavez, Oak /0.076
A. Kennedy, Ana /0.076
L. Rivas, Min /0.076
C. Floyd, NYM /0.075
D. Erstad, Ana /0.075
E. Hinske, Tor /0.074
J. Bagwell, Hou /0.073
A. Huff, TB /0.072
D. Jimenez, Cin /0.072
J. Varitek, Bos /0.072
C. Biggio, Hou /0.071
B. Clark, Mil /0.071
S. Green, LA /0.071
C. Blake, Cle /0.071
J. Gerut, Cle /0.070
R. Durham, SF /0.070

SportsIllustrated.Com: The Value of the SV

2005-01-13T19:27:00.000-08:00
I'm happy to tell you that I have recently had one of my articles published at CNNSI.COM. For those of you who wish to read the article it can be veiwed at:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/fantasy/01/13/save.value/index.html

Here is the lead-in to the story taken from CNNSI.com:

"CASE CLOSED. Baseball drafts are still down the road, but SI.com's Ray Flowers says if there's one rule you need to remember, it's that closers are more valuable than starters."

"Ray Flowers is the statistical guru for FantasyBaseball.com. His work has appeared on numerous Web sites and will be found exclusively at the ALL-NEW FantasyBaseball.com starting later this month. FantasyBaseball.com will be the "Official Site for Fantasy Baseball" and feature in-depth analysis, message boards, live chats and much, much more."

***LET ME ADD SOMETHING TO THE POSTED STORY ***

Some people have been a bit confused about what I wrote so let me clarify.
According to our review of the top SP and RP, we were able to establish a baseline for STRIKEOUTS of:
SP = 0.72 K per 9 IP
RP = 0.93 K per 9 IP

Let’s assume that your league has a 1000 IP maximum.
Now let’s set up two teams.

TEAM A: 5 SP who all pitch 200 innings.
TEAM B: 4 SP who pitch 200 innings, and 3 relievers who pitch 67 innings each.

Therefore…
TEAM A = 1000 IP
TEAM B = 1000 IP

Which team would have more K?

According to our baseline, this is what we would get.

TEAM A: 1000 IP of Starters at .72 K per IP
1000 x .72 = 720 K

Team B: 800 IP of Starters at .72 K per IP
200 IP of Relievers at .93 K per IP
800 x .72 = 576
200 x .93 =186
576 + 186 = 762

TEAM A (total) : 720 K
TEAM B (total) : 762 K

Therefore, per my discussion in the article posted at CNNSI, the team with the top relievers would most probably “win” ERA, WHIP, Saves AND K, while losing only the Win category. That’s four out of five categories for the team that focuses on RP.

REMEMBER…it’s the rate per IP that really matter for ERA/WHIP/K, not necessarily the huge individual numbers posted by some hurlers.

I would like to thank the gentlemen at www.fantasybaseball.com for their help and support (specifically Craig Davis and Ryan Houston). Also, look for lots of big things at the site when it opens in the next few weeks...I think you're all in for a big treat.

LINKS

2005-01-13T19:23:00.000-08:00
Websites which I contribute to:

www.fantasybaseball.com
To view all of my writings on the site please go to the HOMEPAGE and in the left hand column click on MEET THE STAFF. Scroll down to my name, and there you can access all of my aritcles.

www.cnnsi.com
(http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/fantasy/01/13/save.value/index.html)

www.athomeplate.com
Go to the "main archive" and type in RAY FLOWERS to bring up the stories I have written.

www.drafthelp.com
Go to the baseball mainpage to see a chronicle of my stories.

Here is a listing of some of my favorites which can be accessed by going to the above sites.

HITTTING STORIES

http://www.athomeplate.com/powervcontact.shtml HOMERUNS HITTERS WHO MAKE CONTACT AND DONT STRIKEOUT

http://www.athomeplate.com/alltimecomps.shtml A COMPARISON OF MODERN DAY PLAYERS TO SOME OF THE ALL-TIME GREATS

http://www.athomeplate.com/alltimefantasy.shtml THE BEST FANTASY SEASON OF THE PAST 20 YEARS.

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_Ballparks.htm HOW MUCH DOES A BALLPARK EFFECT THE OUTCOME?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Ray_HRRates.htm HOW OFTEN DO YOUR FAVORITE PLAYERS HIT HOMERS?

http://www.athomeplate.com/coorsfield1.shtml HOW DOES COORS FIELD COMPARE TO ARLINGTON?

http://athomeplate.com/coorsfield2.shtml HOW WILL THE HOME PARK CHANGE EFFECT AROD AND SORIANO.

http://www.athomeplate.com/theothergreatone.shtml BABE RUTH V. BARRY BONDS...THE BEST EVER?

http://www.athomeplate.com/griffey.shtml THE FORGOTTEN SUPERSTAR...KEN GRIFFEY JR.

http://www.athomeplate.com/bondsibb.shtml http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Flowers_BondsIBBHistory.htm
THE HISTORY OF THE IBB, AND THE PLIGHT OF BARRY BONDS.

PITCHING STORIES

http://www.athomeplate.com/ray300wins.shtml THE DEMISE OF THE 300 GAME WINNER?

http://www.athomeplate.com/jschmidt.shtml THE BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL IS JASON SCHMIDT

http://athomeplate.com/alltimefanpitchers.shtml THE BEST FANTASY SEASONS OF THE PAST 20 YEARS BY PITCHERS.

http://www.athomeplate.com/swip.shtml
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_SWIPorWHIP.htm
SWIP vs. WHIP, a reveiw of a "new" stat to measure a pitchers effectiveness. SWIP takes into account a pitchers strikeouts and walks to derive a formula that expressess his individual effectiveness.

http://www.athomeplate.com/websavesteam.shtml
DO SAVES COME FROM TEAMS WITH WINNING RECORDS?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_QualityStarts.htm QUALITY STARTS...ARE THEY REALLY QUALITY?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Ray_NolanRyanRobbed.htm PICTHERS WINNING % VERSUS THEIR TEAMS LACK OF SUCCESS.

http://www.athomeplate.com/inheritedrunners.shtml THE VALUE OF STRANDING INHERITED RUNNERS

FANTASY BASEBALL STORIES

http://rototimes.com/index.php?sport=bsball&type=misc&name=F20040701165836
CARLOS BELTRAN'S TRADE TO HOUSTON.

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_BuySell2.htm WHO TO BUY IN FANTASY BASEBALL JUNE 27, 2004

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_BuySell.htm WHO TO SELL JUNE 27, 2004

http://www.athomeplate.com/julyallstars.shtml JULY FANTASY ALL STARS

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_BallsInPlay.htm BALLS IN PLAY AVERAGE (BIP)

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_PickingNames2.htm
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_PickingNames.htm IS PICKING THE "NAME" ALWAYS THE BEST MOVE?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Rookie%20Hype.htm ROOKIE HYPE, SHOULD YOU BITE?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_27yrMVP.htm 27 IS 27 REALLY THE MAGIC AGE FOR PLAYERS?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_StealValue.htm SHOULD WE COUNT SB DIFFERENTELY?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_KnowingRules.htm
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_KnowingRules2.htm KNOWING THE VALUE OF STATS AND HOW THEY EFFECT YOUR TEAM PART I Offense,
PART II Pitching.

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Troubles.htm
TROUBLES, a new stat for fantasy baseball (2B and 3B)

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_CatchersERA.htm CATCHERS ERA

FRIENDS LINKS

http://www.drafthelp.com/BaseballMain.htm DRAFTHELP.COM, THE PLACE FOR FANTASY ANALYSIS

http://www.athomeplate.com ATHOMEPLATE.COM, THE PLACE FOR BASEBALL DISCUSSION FROM THE FANTASY GAME TO HISTORICAL ANALYSIS

http://danagonistes.blogspot.com
FELLOW SABR MEMBER DAN FOX WRITES AN INTERSTING BLOG ON BASEBALL WITH IN DEPTH ANALYSIS, BE SURE TO GIVE IT A PEEK.

http://baseballwriting.blogspot.com/
Joe is a self descibed North East guy who often has great tidbits to offer.

http://letstalkaboutsports.blogspot.com/
MATT PINKOS SITE IS A GREAT PLACE TO READ SOME PASSIONATE WRITING ABOUT BASEBALL, AND "HIS" TEAM, THE WORLD CHAMPION BoSOX

SWIP 2004 - Season in Review

2005-01-03T17:24:00.000-08:00
SWIP, defined as K-BB/IP, was created to measure the effectiveness of a pitcher irrespective of the myriad of other factors that contribute to a pitchers success. Mirroring WHIP, SWIP attempts to relate the two major results of an at-bat that a pitcher can directly effect (BB and K...we leave out HBP just as WHIP does). For a more detailed description of SWIP see:

Here is the listing of SWIP for all pitchers who threw over 162 innings in 2004.

MLB 2004 SWIP

R. Johnson, Ari 1.00
B. Sheets, Mil 0.98
J. Santana, Min 0.93
O. Perez, Pit 0.81
J. Schmidt, SF 0.77
P. Martinez, Bos 0.76
C. Schilling, Bos 0.74
J. Peavy, SD 0.72
R. Clemens, Hou 0.65
C. Carpenter, StL 0.63
M. Clement, ChC 0.62
R. Oswalt, Hou 0.61
F. Garcia, CWS/Sea 0.57
G. Maddux, ChC 0.56
K. Escobar, Ana 0.55
B. Radke, Min 0.53
B. Arroyo, Bos 0.53
J. Bonderman, Det 0.52
C. Zambrano, ChC 0.51
A. Eaton, SD 0.51
J. Wright, Atl 0.48
J. Lieber, NYY 0.48
M. Buehrle, CWS 0.47
R. Harden, Oak 0.45
J. Vazquez, NYY 0.45
N. Robertson, Det 0.45
C. Lee, Cle 0.45
O. Perez, LA 0.43
E. Milton, Phi 0.43
J. Lackey, Ana 0.42
D. Davis, Mil 0.42
B. Colon, Ana 0.42
D. Wells, SD 0.41
J. Thomson, Atl 0.41
C. Pavano, Fla 0.41
L. Hernandez, Mon 0.40
T. Lilly, Tor 0.40
D. Willis, Fla 0.40
J. Weaver, LA 0.39
J. Contreras, CWS/NYY 0.39
W. Williams, StL 0.39
B. Zito, Oak 0.38
M. Morris, StL 0.37
K. Benson, NYM/Pit 0.36
C. Sabathia, Cle 0.36
D. May, KC 0.35
J. Lima, LA 0.35
J. Marquis, StL 0.34
J. Johnson, Det 0.33
B. Lawrence, SD 0.33
T. Hudson, Oak 0.31
C. Lidle, Cin/Phi 0.31
J. Moyer, Sea 0.31
B. Myers, Phi 0.31
P. Wilson, Cin 0.29
K. Rogers, Tex 0.28
T. Wakefield, Bos 0.28
J. Westbrook, Cle 0.26
M. Mulder, Oak 0.25
J. Suppan, StL 0.24
B. Tomko, SF 0.23
M. Maroth, Det 0.23
M. Hendrickson, TB 0.22
B. Webb, Ari 0.22
R. Franklin, Sea 0.21
S. Ponson, Bal 0.21
C. Silva, Min 0.20
R. Drese, Tex 0.19
D. Lowe, Bos 0.19
T. Glavine, NYM 0.18
K. Lohse, Min 0.18
M. Redman, Oak 0.18
J. Garland, CWS 0.17
S. Trachsel, NYM 0.17
J. Jennings, Col 0.16
R. Ortiz, Atl 0.15
M. Hampton, Atl 0.13
A. Leiter, NYM 0.12
I. Valdez, SD/Fla 0.11
B. Anderson, KC 0.10
J. Fogg, Pit 0.09
S. Estes, Col 0.06
M. Batista, Tor 0.04
K. Ishii, LA 0.01
K. Rueter, SF (0.05)

Here are some of the prominent relievers and how they faired in SWIP in 2004.

M. Gonzalez, Pit 1.14
B. Ryan, Bal 1.00
B. Donnelly, Ana 0.98
J. Rincon, Min 0.90
C. Fox, Fla 0.88
R. Betancourt, Cle 0.88
K. Calero, StL 0.82
T. Gordon, NYY 0.82
A. Otsuka, SD 0.79
D. Miceli, Hou 0.73
J. Valverde, Ari 0.72
K. Farnsworth, ChC 0.68
S. Linebrink, SD 0.68
S. Shields, Ana 0.66
B. Fuentes, Col 0.66
B. Howry, Cle 0.64
J. Walker, Det 0.64
J. Mecir, Oak 0.64
F. Francisco, Tex 0.63
J. Grabow, Pit 0.59
M. Miller, Cle 0.58
T. Miller, TB 0.57
C. Eldred, StL 0.55
T. Worrell, Phi 0.55
L. Vizcaino, Mil 0.54
D. Dreifort, LA 0.54
J. Colome, TB 0.54
L. Ayala, Mon 0.53
M. Remlinger, ChC 0.52
G. Carrara, LA 0.53

A few other relievers who didn’t make the top 30 that you might have expected to see after the seasons they had in 2004.

C. Politte, CWS 0.51
C. Reitsma, Atl 0.51
A. Embree, Bos 0.50
G. Mota, LA/Fla 0.50
M. Timlin, Bos 0.49
D. Marte, CWS 0.46
J. Tavarez, StL 0.45
J. Romero, Min 0.42
M. Herges, SF 0.28
J. Frasor, Tor 0.26

Those of dubious honor…here are the ten worst SWIP performers of 2004 (minimum 5 HOLDS).

C. Bentz, Mon -0.18
J. Lopez, Col -0.15
J. Christiansen, SF -0.11
M. Matthews, Cin -0.03
K. Gryboski, Atl 0.02
J. Lehr, Oak 0.06
J. Grimsley, Bal/KC 0.06
J. Cerda, KC 0.07
J. Riedling, Cin 0.08
T. Harikkala, Col 0.11

Since we are into 3 year trends in fantasy baseball...here are the leaders for the past three years.

MLB AVERAGE 2002-2004: 94023 K, 48357 BB, 129998 IP

lgSWIP = 0.35

STARTER LEADERS for 2002-04

Randy J 0.98
Schilling 0.94
Prior 0.88
Pedro 0.87
Santana 0.85
Schmidt 0.74
Wood 0.67
Sheets 0.66
Clemens 0.66
Ol.Perez 0.65
Beckett 0.65
Mussina 0.64
Oswalt 0.62
Vazquez 0.61
Pettitte 0.57
Clement 0.57
Burnett 0.55
Peavy 0.55
Halladay 0.52
Brown 0.52
Escobar 0.51
Millwood 0.50
Odalis Perez 0.49
F.Garcia 0.49
Wolf 0.48
Morris 0.45
Maddux 0.45
Mulder 0.40
Colon 0.40
C.Zambrano 0.40
Pavano 0.40
Webb 0.38
Hudson 0.37
Zito 0.36
Ru.Ortiz at an abysmal 0.19.

RELIEVER LEADERS 2002-2004

GAGNE 1.24
LIDGE 0.98
WAGNER 0.96
FRod ANA 0.92
DOTEL 0.91
SMOLTZ 0.87
HOFFMAN 0.85
GORDON 0.80
NATHAN 0.76
BJ RYAN 0.75
GURDADO 0.72
EMBREE 0.69
HAWKINS 0.68
IZZY 0.66
RIVERA 0.66
MARTE 0.66
FRNSWRH 0.65
URBINA 0.64
F.CORDERO 0.64
RISKE 0.63
BENITEZ 0.61
Mota 0.55
Percival 0.53
Worrell 0.46
Looper 0.40
Julio 0.39
Baez 0.37
Mesa 0.28
Graves 0.24
Kolb 0.18.

JASON KENDALL MOVES TO A's

2004-11-26T14:12:00.000-08:00
Kendall Move a
Brilliant One for A’s
by
Ray Flowers

With the apparent trade of JASON KENDALL to the A’s for ARTHUR RHODES and MARK REDMAN, the A’s have made a considerable move in the right direction (irrespective of the financial ramifications. See; http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/11/25/SPG2VA1BB01.DTL). To better analyze this trade, we have to scrutinize Kendall's career and be sure not to compare him to all other players in baseball, but all catchers in baseball.

Jason Kendall’s stats include lifetime figures of a .306 average and .387 OBA, excellent numbers for any ballplayer, especially a catcher (just how great we will see in a moment). Besides these gaudy numbers, Kendall also has some rather impressive career marks per 162 games played: .306, 9, 61 with 91 Runs scored and 18 SB. Most fantasy teams would be fairly happy with those numbers from a 2nd or 3rd OF let alone a starting catcher. And that is where this discussion about the A’s move gets mighty interesting.

Because of the wear and tear that C constantly live with, prevailing baseball wisdom has said that any C with over 1,200 career games played is bound to slow down (Kendall sits at 1,252 games played entering 2005). With modern training methods, and the players ever increasing desire to play as long as possible, this preconceived notion regarding C career paths may need to be re-written (for a great example look up Pudge Rodriguez who keeps putting together HOF seasons despite having played 1758 games). So with that problem apprently in need of rethinking, let’s move into the realm of historical overview to put Kendall’s career thusfar into perspective.

Here are the all-time rankings for Jason Kendall amongst all C with over 3,000 plate appearances
(stats taken from Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia, 2004 Edition).

AVG .306 , 7th
OBA .387 , 5th
SB 140, 9th
Runs 706, 15th
Hits 1409, 36th
1B 1057, 24th
HBP 177, 1st

With Kendall showing no signs of slowing down, it appears that Kendall has an excellent shot of finishing in the top 10 all-time in all of the above categories including the top 5 in SB, Runs, Hits and 1B.

To leave the “traditional” realm for a moment let’s briefly take a look at a couple of sabermetric stats that show just how valuable Kendall is. The following table relates two Sabermetric staples, Runs Created and Runs Created per 27 outs.

RC 776, 21st
RC/27 6.16, 11th

Runs created charts how many actual runs a player creates for his team. For those of you in dire need of using your abacus there are a wide variety of Runs Created formulas available, at last count something like 24 of them (for a brief synopsis of the simplest formula see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created). The numbers I have listed above are a more thorough and complex version of RC and RC27 than what is used by sources such as ESPN. My listed totals take into account such variables as the era the player played in as well as park he played in.

Runs created per 27 outs, or one game worth of outs, estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score. Therefore a score of 8.0 would mean a team of 9 MIGUEL TEJADA’s would score an average of 8 runs per 9-inning game. That means a team made up of 9 Jason Kendall’s would score, on average, over 6 runs per game. This figure is highly significant since it places Kendall above such luminaries as PUDGE RODRIGUEZ (5.79), JAVY LOPEZ (5.76) and JASON VARITEK (5.34) to name but a few.

In closing Jason Kendall, barring injury, appears headed for a HOF career despite the fact that very few people realize it. One of the main reasons we neglect to mention Kendall’s name amongst the greatest of all-time is that he doesn’t have the gaudy jaw dropping HR and RBI totals of a slugger. Kendall’s accomplishments are more subtle than that, though they are by no means less important to the success of a ball club. Perhaps when Kendall wins a few division titles with the A’s people will begin to take notice of this quiet, wave riding San Diego boy who has firmly placed himself amongst the best offensive catchers ever to play the game.

RAY NOTES

Did you know that besides leading all C in HBP with 177, Jason Kendall sits in 11th all-time behind the all-time leader HUGHIE JENNINGS (287)?

Ray Flowers can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@drafthelp.com
You can also visit Rays’ blog at www.wildpitch.blogspot.com for a full review of all of his recent article and other interesting stuff.

HR/K RATIOS

2004-08-17T11:30:00.000-07:00
Determined by taking HR and dividing them by strikeouts
(HR / K)

2004 Leaders
As of August 16th (for all hitters with 20 or more HR).

HR SO HR/K
B. Bonds 31/ 24/ 1.292
A. Pujols 37/ 38/ 0.974
T. Helton 26/ 44/ 0.591
M. Tejada 23/ 45/ 0.511
A. Beltre 33/ 65/ 0.508
M. Sweeney 22/ 44/ 0.500
G. Sheffield 27/ 55/ 0.491
M. Alou 27/ 59/ 0.458
A. Ramirez 23/ 52/ 0.442
V. Guerrero 25/ 58/ 0.431
S. Finley 24/ 56/ 0.429
A. Huff 22/ 52/ 0.423
P. Konerko 29/ 71/ 0.408
T. Batista 20/ 49/ 0.408
V. Martinez 20/ 50/ 0.400
C. Beltran 29/ 74/ 0.392
S. Rolen 28/ 75/ 0.373
M. Lowell 22/ 59/ 0.373
E. Chavez 21/ 59/ 0.356
J. Burnitz 31/ 88/ 0.352
M. Teixeira 28/ 80/ 0.350
J. Guillen 23/ 66/ 0.348
J. Drew 27/ 79/ 0.342
M. Mora 21/ 62/ 0.339
D. Ortiz 30/ 91/ 0.330
C. Lee 23/ 70/ 0.329
V. Castilla 25/ 79/ 0.316
M. Ramirez 30/ 96/ 0.313
H. Matsui 24/ 78/ 0.308
J. Thome 35/ 116/ 0.302
K. Griffey Jr. 20/ 67/ 0.299
C. Jones 20/ 68/ 0.294
A. Rodriguez 29/ 99/ 0.293
B. Abreu, 26/ 89/ 0.292
T. Hafner 23/ 80/ 0.288
S. Sosa 25/ 92/ 0.272
J. Edmonds 31/ 116/ 0.267
D. Lee 24/ 92/ 0.261
A. Dunn 36/ 139/ 0.259
A. Soriano 24/ 96/ 0.250
J. Valentin 26/ 107/ 0.243
W. Pena 21/ 87/ 0.241
M. Cabrera 25/ 107/ 0.234
H. Blalock 24/ 112/ 0.214
M. Cameron 25/ 119/ 0.210
B. Wilkerson 22/ 108/ 0.204
C. Blake 20/ 101/ 0.198
A. Jones 20/ 107/ 0.187
C. Wilson 21/ 123/ 0.171

ALL TIME LEADERS

Player Year HR K HR/K
L.Gehrig 1934/ 49/ 31/ 1.581
T.Kluszewski 1954/ 49/ 35/ 1.400
J.Dimaggio 1937/ 46/ 37/ 1.243
J.Mize 1947/ 51/ 42/ 1.214
T.Kluszewski 1953/ 40/ 34/ 1.176
T.Kluszewski 1955/ 47/ 40/ 1.175
M.Ott 1929/ 42 /38/ 1.105
J.Mize 1948/ 40 /37/ 1.081
L.Gehrig 1936 /49/ 46 1.065
B.Bonds 2002/ 46 /47/ 0.979
H.Aaron 1969/ 44 /47/ 0.936
R.Maris 1961/ 61 /67/ 0.910
B.Ruth 1931/ 46 /51/ 0.902
A.Rosen 1953/ 43 /48/ 0.896
T.Williams 1949 /43/ 48 0.896
R.Kiner 1949/ 54 /61/ 0.885
J.Mize 1940/ 43 /49/ 0.878
W.Mays 1955/ 51 /60/ 0.850
R.Hornsby 1922 /42/ 50 0.840
L.Gehrig 1931 /46/ 56 0.821
H.Aaron 1971/ 47 /58/ 0.810
B.Ruth 1930/ 49 /61/ 0.803
C.Klein 1930/ 40 /50/ 0.800
H.Aaron 1973/ 40 /51/ 0.784
B.Bonds 2003/ 45 /58/ 0.776
B.Ruth 1929/ 46 /60/ 0.767
R.Sievers 1957 /42/ 55 /0.764
F.Thomas 1993 /41/ 54 /0.759
H.Aaron 1957/ 44 /58/ 0.759
R.Kiner 1951/ 42 /57/ 0.737
W.Mays 1965/ 52 /71/ 0.732
H.Trosky 1936 /42/ 58/ 0.724
W.Mays 1954/ 41 /57/ 0.719
C.Williams 1923 /41/ 57/ 0.719
R.Campanella 1953 /41/ 58/ 0.707
C.Klein 1929/ 43 /61/ 0.705
T.Helton 2000 /42/ 61/ 0.689
W.McCovey 1969 /45/ 66/ 0.682
R.Palmeiro 1999 /47/ 69/ 0.681
V.Guerrero 1999 /42/ 62/ 0.677
A.Pujols 2003 /43/ 65/ 0.662
B.Ruth 1932/ 41 /62/ 0.661
E.Matthews 1954 /40/ 61/ 0.656
R.Kiner 1948/ 40/ 61/ 0.656
W.Mays 1964/ 47/ 72/ 0.653
L.Gehrig 1930/ 41/ 63/ 0.651
E.Mathews 1959/ 46/ 71/ 0.648
B.Williams 1970/ 42/ 65/ 0.646
C.Yaztrzemski 1967/ 44/ 69/ 0.638
G.Sheffield 1996/ 42/ 66/ 0.636
H.Aaron 1960/ 40/ 63/ 0.635
E.Banks 1959/ 45/ 72/ 0.625
E.Banks 1955/ 44/ 72/ 0.611
C.Yaztrzemski 1970 /40 /66/ 0.606
G.Sheffield 2000 /43 /71/ 0.606
H.Sauer 1954/ 41 /68 /0.603
E.Banks 1960/ 41 /69 /0.594
R.Petrocelli 1969/ 40/ 68/ 0.588
B.Ogilvie 1980/ 41/ 71/ 0.577
M.Piazza 1999/ 40/ 70/ 0.571
F.Thomas 1996/ 40/ 70/ 0.571

Leaders Last 20 Years
1984-2003

Player Year HR K HR/K
B.Bonds 2002 /46/ 47/ 0.979
B.Bonds 2001 /73/ 93/ 0.785
B.Bonds 2003 /45/ 58/ 0.776
F.Thomas 1993 /41/ 54/ 0.759
T.Helton 2000 /42/ 61/ 0.689
L.Gonzalez 2001 /57/ 83/ 0.687
R.Palmeiro 1999 /47/ 69/ 0.681
V.Guerrero 1999 /42/ 62/ 0.677
A.Pujols 2003 /43/ 65/ 0.662
B.Bonds 2000 /49/ 77/ 0.636
G.Sheffield 1996 /42/ 66/ 0.636
G.Bell 1987 /47/ 75/ 0.627
A.Belle 1995 /50/ 80/ 0.625
G.Sheffield 2000 /43/ 71/ 0.606
V.Guerrero 2000 /44/ 74/ 0.595
T.Martinez 1997 /44/ 75/ 0.587
A.Belle 1998 /49/ 84/ 0.583
B.Bonds 1993 /46/ 79/ 0.582
J.Gonzalez 1996 /47/ 82/ 0.573
M.Piazza 1999 /40/ 70/ 0.571
F.Thomas 1996 /40/ 70/ 0.571
B.Bonds 1996 /42/ 76/ 0.553
A.Belle 1996 /48/ 87/ 0.552
Griffey Jr. 1994 /40/ 73/ 0.548
L.Walker 1997 /49/ 90/ 0.544
F.Thomas 1995 /40/ 74/ 0.541
R.Palmeiro 2001 /47/ 90/ 0.522
M.Piazza 1997 /40/ 77/ 0.519
V.Castilla 1998 /46/ 89 0.517
Griffey Jr. 1993 /45/ 91/ 0.495
M.Williams 1994 /43/ 87/ 0.494
C.Jones 1999 /45/ 94/ 0.479
J.Lopez 2003 /43/ 90/ 0.478
R.Sandberg 1990 /40/ 84/ 0.476
R.Palmeiro 1998 /43/ 91/ 0.473
D.Evans 1985 /40/ 85/ 0.471
J.Gonzalez 1993 /46/ 99/ 0.465
B.Bonds 1997 /40/ 87/ 0.460
R.Palmeiro 2002 /43/ 94/ 0.457
F.Thomas 2000 /43/ 94/ 0.457
V.Castilla 1996 /40/ 88/ 0.455
D.Justice 2000 /41/ 91/ 0.451
J.Giambi 2000 /43/ 96/ 0.448
D.Justice 1993 /40/ 90/ 0.444
D.Bichette 1995 /40/ 96/ 0.417
K.Caminiti 1996 /40/ 99/ 0.404

BIP Averages (BallsInPlay)

2004-08-09T16:20:00.001-07:00
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_BallsInPlay.htm FOR THE FULL STORY CHECK OUT THIS LINK

Balls In Play Average, or BIP, measures what a batters average is in at bats in which they hit the ball.

Let’s take Jim Thome as an example.
Jim Thome is batting .285 this year (372 AB with 106 hits) with 109 K.

372 AB- 109 K= 263 AB
106 HITS/263 AB= .403
Therefore his BIP average is .403.

The 2004 BIP Leaders as of August 8th, 2004
Jim Edmonds .431
Adam Dunn .430
Miguel Cabrera .424
Melvin Mora .420
Lyle Overbay .414
Manny Ramírez .412
Scott Rolen .409
Travis Hafner .406
Iván Rodríguez .406
Jim Thome .403
Jason Varitek .396
Craig Wilson .394
Ichiro Suzuki .392
David Ortiz .389
Jeromy Burnitz .389
J.D. Drew .388
Barry Bonds .386
Carlos Guillén .386
Derrek Lee .382
Erubiel Durazo .382
Phil Nevin .381
Lance Berkman .380
Álex Sánchez .379
VladGuerrero .378
Adrián Béltre .377
Aramis Ramírez .375
Javy López .373
Hideki Matsui .373
Johnny Estrada .371
Michael Young .370
Ken Harvey .370
Todd Helton .369
Jermaine Dye .369
Hank Blalock .368
Bobby Abreu .367
José Guillén .367
Sean Casey .364
Royce Clayton .364
Mark Loretta .362
Álex Rodríguez .361
Casey Blake .360
Chone Figgins .359
Ron Belliard .358
Eric Byrnes .358
Jack Wilson .358
Kevin Millar .355
Milton Bradley .353
Carl Crawford .352
Mark Kotsay .352
Alfonso Soriano .351
Miguel Tejada .349
Matt Lawton .348
Aaron Miles .348
Carlos Lee .348
Paul Konerko .348
Albert Pujols .347
Vinny Castilla .347
Vernon Wells .346
Gary Sheffield .344
Víctor Martínez .344
Lew Ford .343
Jeff Kent .342
Eric Chávez .342
Danny Bautista .341
Rocco Baldelli .340
Johnny Damon .340
S.Hillenbrand .340
Craig Biggio .339
Luis Castillo .338
Omar Vizquel .338
Ryan Freel .338
Mike Lowell .337
Randy Winn .336
Derek Jeter .335
Tino Martínez .335
Michael Barrett .333
Tony Womack .332
Mike Piazza .332
Juan Pierre .332
César Izturis .331
Édgar Rentería .330
Reed Johnson .328
Jason Kendall .328
David Eckstein .327
Paul Lo Duca .326
Rafael Furcal .326
Brian Giles .326
Julio Lugo .323
Sean Burroughs .322
M.Grissom .322
José Vidro .321
Chad Tracy .321
Mike Sweeney .320
Marco Scutaro .319
C.Guzmán .319
Aubrey Huff .317
S. Hatteberg .316
Jimmy Rollins .314
Pierzynski .314
Endy Chávez .313

Here are the ALL TIME BIP leaders
for all seasons where a batter
accumluated 150 K in a season.

JimThome 2001/ .449
JoseHernandez 2002/ .448
SammySosa 2001/ .446
MoVaughan 1997/ .445
SammySosa 2000/ .443
JimEdmonds 2000/ .433
MoVaughan 1996/ .430
MarkMcGwire 1998/ .429
JimThome 1999/ .424
WillieStargell 1971/ .423
Bobby Bonds 1970/ .422
SammySosa 1998/ .419
PrestonWilson 1999/ .414
JorgePosada 2000/ .410
JoseCanseco 1990/ .409
RayLankford 1998/ .408
A.Galarraga 1996/ .405
PeteIncavilia 1987/ .405
CecilFielder 1990/ .405
A.Galarraga 1988/ .404
GregLuzinski 1975/ .402
TroyGlaus 2000/ .400
DickAllen 1965/ .399
SammySosa 1999/ .396
HenryRodriguez 1996/ .395
Rob Deer 1987/ .392
ReggieJackson 1982/ .390
BradWilkerson 2002/ .390
DannyTartabull 1986/ .390
JimThome 2003/ .389
JimThome 2000/ .389
MarkMcGwire 1997/ .388
LarryHisle 1969/ .388
AlfonsoSoriano 2002/ .388
BradWilkerson 2003/ .387
ReggieJackson 1971/ .387
RichieSexson 2000/ .386
Richie Sexson 2001/ .386
MoVaughan 2000/ .386
BoJackson 1989/ .385
PrestonWilson 2000/ .383
PeteIncavilia 1986/ .381
PatBurrell 2002/ .381
DickAllen 1968/ .381
TommieAgee 1970/ .379
JoseHernandez 2001/ .378
JayBuhner 1996/ .378
DerekLee 2002/ .376
RobDeer 1986/ .376
DaveNicholson 1963/ .376
MikeCameron 2001/ .374
BenGrieve 2001/ .373
BobbyBonds 1969/ .370
LarryParrish 1987/ .370
PatBurrell 2001/ .369
JimPresley 1986/ .367
MIkeSchmidt 1975/ .366
RobDeer 1988/ .366
FrankHoward 1967/ .365
Adam Dunn 2002/ .364
ButchHobson 1977/ .364
RichieSexson 2003/ .363
JoseCanseco 1991/ .362
ReggieJackson 1968/ .361
DeanPalmer 1999/ .361
JuanSamuel 1987/ .361
A.Galarraga 1990/ .361
JayBuhner 1997/ .359
JesseBarfield 1990/ .359
DannyTartabull 1993/ .359
JuanSamuel 1984/ .358
RonKittle 1983/ .357
DonnClendenon 1968/ .356
GormanThomas 1979/ .356
A.Galarraga 1989/ .355
JeromyBernitz 1998/ .355
TonyArmas 1984/ .354
DonLock 1963/ .353
MikeCamerson 2002/ .352
NateColbert 1970/ .351
MickeyTettleton 1990/ .349
DeanPalmer 1993/ .348
LeeStevens 2001/ .345
CecilFielder 1991/ .345
SammySosa 1997/ .344
JoseCanseco 1987/ .342
JeromyBernitz 2001/ .342
JoseHernandez 2003/ .342
TroyGlaus 2001/ .342
JimPresley 1987/ .340
JoseCanseco 1986/ .339
RonGant 1997/ .338
GaryAlexander 1978/ .337
SteveBalboni 1985/ .336
DaveKingman 1975/ .332
CorySnyder 1987/ .331
RobDeer 1993/ .330
JesseBarfield 1989/ .329
GormanThomas 1980/ .328
GeorgeScott 1966/ .327
CecilFielder 1992/ .327
JoseCanseco 1998/ .325
DelinoDeshields 1991/ .325
SammySosa 1990/ .325
DeanPalmer 1992/ .320
JuanSamuel 1988/ .320
RobDeer 1989/ .318
JeffBurroughs 1975/ .314
RobDeer 1991/ .293
DaveKingman 1982/ .288

Radio Appearance, AUGUST 5th, 8:30 PM EST

2004-08-04T18:44:00.001-07:00
On August 5th, 2004, I appeared on air with Rick Morris of www.Drafthelp.com to discuss many a topic on baseball. The show can be heard at:

You could also listen to my radio discussion on CERA at:
http://sportstalkcleveland.com/archives/index.htm
Scroll down to LIFE’S A PITCH for 8/5/04
(Tune in to the 33 to 59th Minute to hear the discussion)

Here is a "cheat sheet" discussing many of the topics we plan to covered.

CATCHERS ERA
To read the article we will/are discussing link to:
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_CatchersERA.htm

BEST NL LEFTY ISNT R.JOHNSON?

It just might be Oliver Perez (OP). The stats as of August 5th.
OP- Age 23
Randy Johson (RJ)- Age 40

W-L/ERA/K
OP- 6-6/3.13/153
RJ- 11-9/2.96/184

WHIP/SWIP/IP
OP- 1.12/0.86/123.2
RJ- 0.91/0.92/164.1

BAA/OPSA (Batting Average Against/OPS Against)
OP- .206/.636
RJ- .197/.564

K/9IP
OP- 11.13
RJ- 10.07

H/9IP
OP- 6.62
RJ- 6.46

RJ is ahead in most categories, surprisingly not in K though, but they are darn close, closer in fact than most of you imagined I bet.

Their stats through roughly their first 350 IP of their careers.

OP- AGE 23/340.1 IP/14W-21L/4.10 ERA
RJ- AGE 26/406.1 IP/24W-24L/4.03 ERA

OP- 388 K/10.26 K PER 9IP
RJ- 349 K//7.73 K PER 9IP

OP- 1.36 WHIP/0.63 SWIP
RJ- 1.40 WHIP/0.31 SWIP

OP- .231 BAA/7.70 H per 9IP
RJ- .230 BAA/7.62 H per 9IP

BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL- JASON SCMHIDT
(You can view my previously written article at:
http://www.athomeplate.com/jschmidt.shtml)

An update on that story follows. RANKS are for MLB pitching as of August 4th:

Record 13-4 (5th best win% of .765)
2.75 ERA (3rd)
164 K (3rd)
1.03 WHIP (4th)
9.80 K/9IP (4th)
6.03 H/9IP (2nd)
.188 BAA (2nd)
.565 OPSA (2nd)

That is as impressive a record as there is in baseball.

CARLOS BELTRAN'S FAILED HOUSTON TRIP;
THERE's BEEN NO BLASTOFF

As previously predicted
(http://wildpitch.blogspot.com/2004/07/carlos-beltran-and-kauffman-stadium.html), Beltran's move to Houston has not been the offensive boon that many people expected. Here are the numbers, you might want to avert your eyes.

AB/AVG/HR/RBI
KC- 266/.278/15/51
HOU- 131/.244/11/25
***His at bat total means that you can just double his Houston numbers to match his KC totals for comparisons sake (i.e. 25 RBI become 50 or 1 behind his KC total).

R/H/2B
KC- 51/74/19
HOU- 22/32/7

OBP/SLG/OPS
KC- .367/.534/.901
HOU- .327/.565/.892

Hell, even his SB total is down (14 in KC to 6 in Houston). That means, by my count, of the 10 categories that we surveyed Beltran as an Astros is behind his KC pace in EIGHT of them.

Catchers CERA Leaders, 01-03

2004-08-03T23:30:00.000-07:00
THE FORMULA

CERA= (ER/IP) X 9

CERA is the Catchers ERA or the ERA of the pitching staff of that team when that catcher is behind the dish.

SOURCES and ISSUES

What follows is a list of CERA leaders for the past three full seasons taken from the Bill James Handbooks.

As noted in Mr. Rosciams' article (see link below), these figures are not necessarily the best available. The reason for this is that CERA is calculated in this series of works by taking the total innings caught by a catcher without recording who was pitching during those innings. In essence what these numbers relate is how an individual catchers ERA compares to the overall team mark regardless of whether or not that catcher caught Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder or Rich Harden and Mark Redman.

We should also mention that CERA should also be normalized meaning that the teams overall ERA should play a part when discussing CERA. For Example Ra. Hernandez catches the wonderful A's pitching staff so of course his CERA will be lower than that of A.J. Pierzynski's totals on the Twins without necessarily meaning that Ra. Hernandez is a better catcher. A more indicative total is that of the DIFFERENCE column which show how each catcher performed in relation to his teams ERA.

In the following leaders lists CERA is listed first, followed by Team ERA in (parenthesis), followed by the difference between the Catchers CERA and his teams mark. A negative score in the difference column is good meaning the catcher improved his teams ERA by that much).

2003 LEADERS
Minimum 100 Games Caught

P.LoDuca-2.73 (3.16), diff: -0.43
Ra.Hernandez-3.48 (3.63),diff: -0.15
B.Santiago-3.53(3.73),diff: -0.20
Olivo-3.80(4.17),diff: -0.37
I.Rodriguez-3.84(4.04),diff: -0.20
D.Miller-3.88(3.83),diff: +0.05
J.Lopez-3.96(4.10),diff: -0.14
M.Lieberthal-4.11(4.04),diff: +0.07
J.Posada-4.13(4.02),diff: +0.09
A.Pierzynski-4.15(4.41),diff: -0.26

REFERENCES

Please also read Chuck Rosciam's review of CERA at:
http://wildpitch.blogspot.com/2004/08/catchers-era-new-defensive-measure.html

Please also refer to Keith Woolner's article
http://baseball-analysis.com/article.php?articleid=432]

Catcher's ERA, a New Defensive Measure?

2004-08-02T11:20:00.000-07:00
THE FOLLOWING IS REPRODUCED WITH THE APPROVAL OF ITS AUTHOR. WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK MR. ROSCIAM FOR ALLOWING US TO DO SO.

Catcher's Earned Run Average (CERA)
Meaningless Stat Or An Effective Measure?
by Chuck Rosciam, SABR Member

A discussion of the value and shortfalls of the statistic called Catcher's Earned Run Average (CERA).

INTRODUCTION

Most experts (meaning managers, coaches, pitchers and catchers) believe that the aspect of the catcher's job that has the most impact is his game-calling, that is, his ability to work with pitchers and help them throw more effectively. The standard and most acceptable measure for a pitcher is the Earned Run Average (ERA). Baseball is a game that has statistics for virtually everything, but there seems to be precious little time and energy devoted to measuring how well catchers perform at calling the game. Rather, we see catchers’ defense measured by how many base stealers they throw out or how many passed balls or errors are charged against the backstop. A recent attempt at measuring a catcher's defensive skills is the CERA, which basically is the Earned Run Average of the battery (catcher and the pitchers on a team) for each specific catcher as compared to all other catchers and their batterymates.

The most comprehensive published study on the subject is Craig Wright's "Catcher's ERA" in his book The Diamond Appraised. Craig defined a process whereby catchers on the same team can be compared by how well a common set of pitchers perform with each catcher. That is, Catcher A's and Catcher B's CERA for Pitcher 1 are compared for the differences. The resultant CERA can be used to draw a conclusion as to the intrateam value among catchers.

PROBLEMS WITH CERA

However, there is a problem with this straight forward approach, as noted by Keith Woolner in his study published in Baseball Prospectus. The problem is sample size. When attempting to use "matched pitchers" for a team's catchers, there are wide fluctuations in the number of innings especially for the backup catchers. These variations between catchers' innings and hence their CERA may be "natural variation" attributed to simple chance or they might be the result of true game-calling ability.

Furthermore, there is the situation of the alternate (backup) catcher being used as a late inning substitute and paired with mop-up bullpen hurlers, generally in a losing cause. The starting catcher would have very few innings with these bullpen guys (usually with a high ERA) while the backup catcher would have few innings with the #1 and #2 starting pitchers (who usually have lower ERA's). Then there is the phenomena of Grag Maddux. When he pitched for Atlanta he preferred to throw to backup catcher Eddie Perez instead of the number one guy, Javy Lopez. Because of Maddux's preference and low ERA, this would preclude any matched pairings or if pairings were ignored the scales would tip in Perez's favor.

The next concern with CERA (and by no means the last) is the way that CERA is now being captured and presented in various publications which form the core of the CERA statistical library. The Bill James Handbook formerly published by STATS, Inc. and now ACTA, do not use matched pairings, but rather capture all of a catcher's innings and earned runs regardless of the pitchers involved. It is a raw total report that in and of itself is very misleading.

In Table 1. below you have two equal catchers (A and B) who have the very same CERA for each and every pitcher (1, 2, and 3) they caught. The only difference between the catchers is in the number of innings caught for each pitcher although their cumulative total innings are identical. "CATCHER A" only caught 50 innings with "PITCHER 2" (ERA of 4.50) while "CATCHER B" caught 110 innings and had the identical CERA. "CATCHER B" is penalized (in his cumulative CERA of 3.86) for doing the same job as "CATCHER A" only because of the way the CERA raw total statistic is formulated.

***TO SEE THE TABLES AND READ THE REST OF THE ARTCLE LINK TO THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS:
http://www.baseballcatchers.com/cera1.htm

Ray's Notes

2004-07-21T19:44:00.000-07:00
ray@drafthelp.com

Thanks for stopping by...

WORLD SERIES NOTES
Though it has been widely reported that the BoSox were the first team ever to win 8 playoof games in a row this is not quite true. They are the first team to win 8 in a row in ONE PLAYOFF YEAR. But according to work by two fellow SABR members, the record for most post season wins in a row is actually longer.

Norman Price reports that the Yankees, on two different occasions,swept successive World Series (or 8 wins in a row): The 1927-28 Yanks (over Pittsburgh and St Louis) and the 1938-39 Yanks (Cubs and Reds).

R. J. Lesch also added that the record for consecutive post season wins is 12 in a row, also accomplished by the Yankees. Here is what he found.
(1) The Yanks swept the World Series in 1927, 1928 and 1932.
(2) In the 1998 ALCS they won the last 3 games, followed by a sweep of the WS, then swept the 1999 ALDS, and were victorious in the first two games of the 1999 ALCS.

So what has been widely reported is only half the story...leave it to the SABR guys to get it right.

OCTOBER 5th
Sorry for the delay..I've been busy looking at purchasing homes and writing a bunch of season ending articles dealing with wrapping up the season, Cy Young Voting, MVP Voting, Barry Bonds, and Ichiro. that can be read at:
www.athomeplate.com
AND
http://www.drafthelp.com/BaseballMain.htm

With that, let's add some notes here:

~~~With 157 K this year in only 94.2 IP, BRAD LIDGE set an all-time record for most K by a reliever in NL history. His ratio of 14.93 K per 9 IP is the second best all-time for a single season for a pitcehr with over 75 IP. The list:

Eric Gagne ,2003 / 14.98
BRAD LIDGE, 2004/14.92
Armando Benitez ,1999/ 14.77
Rob Dibble , 1991 / 13.55
Randy Johnson , 2001 / 13.41
Pedro Martinez , 1999 / 13.20
Rob Dibble , 1989 / 12.82
Kerry Wood , 1998 / 12.58
Pedro Martinez , 2001 / 12.57
Randy Johnson , 2000 / 12.56

~~~Have you seen ESPN's Cy Young Predictor Page developed by ROB NEYER and BILL JAMES? If you haevn't you should take a look. According to their work, they predict the following results.

AL
1. JOHAN SANTANA- 203.8
2. MARIANO RIVERA- 196.3
3. CURT SCHILLING- 174.5

NL
1. ERIC GAGNE- 193.7
2. JASON ISRINGHAUSEN- 173.3
3. ROGER CLEMENS- 166.1

Personally I'm a bit skeptical of rankings that place relievers this high, especialluy IZZY, but according to the book written by Neyer and James called THE NEYER JAMES GUIDE TO PITCHERS, the system predicts the winner more than 80% of the time (p.468). So we'll see wont we.

More can be read about this analysis at: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy

SEPTEMBER 19th
(The following info was reported by Rotoworld.com on Sept. 19th)

"Aaron Rowand is hitting .336 with 18 doubles and 40 RBI since the All-Star break."

"Esteban Loaiza will start Tuesday against the Blue Jays. His mound opponent will be Blue Jays' ace Roy Halladay who, has been out of action with a shoulder injury and will make his first start in over a month."

"Alfonso Soriano had his strained left hamstring examined today by Dr. Lewis Yocum. It appears that Dr. Yocum agrees with the Rangers doctors' earlier diagnosis. Soriano will be out of action for at least one more week."

"Adrian Beltre broke Ron Cey's record for the most runs batted in by a Dodger third baseman in a season.Beltre now has 111 for the campaign."

"Freddy Garcia is undefeated (8-0) in nine day starts this season."

"Mark Redman is 8-6 with a 2.88 ERA in 16 starts on the road. At home, he is 3-6 with a 7.81 ERA in 14 starts."

"Johan Santana struck out a career-high 14 batters and won his 12th straight decision this afternoon. We have run out of superlatives to describe Santana. He leads the AL, in strikeouts with 254 and has a league low 2.65 ERA."

SEPTEMBER 15th
Every baseball fan as a kid loves to wear his home teams jersey with his favoire player on the back (heck some of us still wear jerseys as adults!) We thought you might like to read a story detailing the development of players wearing numbers on their jerseys.

http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/exhibits/online_exhibits/dressed_to_the_nines/timeline_1929.htm

The link below attests to the fact that while the Yankees are often credited with "inventing" player jerseys with numbers, it was actually the 1916 Indians.
http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/exhibits/online_exhibits/dressed_to_the_nines/timeline_1916c.htm

SEPTEMBER 9th

~CRAIG MONROE...
Has anyone noticed how well this man is hitting? Well if you need some pop as the fantasy season winds down, see if he is still on the waiver wire. He has hit 8 HR in the past 11 games, with hits in 22 of 23 games and 28 RBI over those 23 games.
In August he hit: .333, 8, 21 with a 1.166 OPS.
In Sept. he has hit: .476, 4,9 with a 1.595 OPS.
Seriously...

~What about JOE RANDA? Aided by his 6 hit 6 run game today he's 15 for 27, a .556 average, with 11 runs in 6 games during September. In fact, in his last 34 games he is hitting .336.

~ARMANDO BENITEZ has 11 saves against the METS!!! (Yes that's an all-time record vs. one team). 13.1 IP, 1 ER, 12 K, 0.68 ERA, 0.30 WHIP, .091 BAA. Damn...

~GIOVANNI CARRARRA had an impressive August. In 20.2 IP he allowed 24 baserunners (1.16 WIHIP) with a 0.44 ERA and 19 K. Do the Dodgers really miss GUILLERMO MOTA?

~JC ROMERO...he's nothing but a middle reliever right? True, but look a little closer at his stats. He hasn't allowed a run since June 7th...thats 34.2 IP without a run!!!

~And the sad case of HANK BLALOCK...from the next George Brett to the next...Mike Lowell? Since the break Blalock has been downright horrible hitting .197 with a .667 OPS in 178 at bats (that's after hitting .303 with a .941 OPS pre all-star break).

SEPTEMBER 5th

ICHIRO, Ichiro, Ichiro...sure his hit total will probably be one of the top 10 of all-time, and while that does deserve some attention, it important to remember just what it doesn't mean.
According to my fellow SABR members, the following points are true.
1- Ichiro has a RunsCreated Score of 8.5, meaning that a team made of 9 Ichiro's would score 8.5 Runs per game. A team of 9 BONDS you ask? Try 23!!!

2- Ichiro has made over 90% MORE outs than Bonds this year despite hitting for a higher average.

3- Bonds has roughly 150% MORE extra base hits than Ichiro.

4- Bonds secondary average, which measures hits other than singles, is 300% higher than Ichiro's.

5- These above stats mean that a team of 9 Bonds would beat a team of 9 Ichiro's 85% of the time.

Dont forget this the next time someone says that Ichiro is the best ever or something to that effect.

AUGUST 27th

~ This year poor JEFF BAGWELL, with that damn busted up shoulder of his, has only been able to hit 18 HR in 433 at bats. On the other hand CARLOS BELTRAN has 17 HR for the Astros this year...but he has produced those HR in only 202 at bats!

(Special thanks to my brother, Jeff Flowers, who brought this to my attention)

~ From April 1 2003 through August 4th 2004, here are CURT SCHILLING pitching stats:
3 or 4 days rest/ 7-11, 196 IP, 3.80 ERA
5+ days rest/ 12-3, 111 IP, 2.18

(Matt Olkin of Sports Weekly)

~ BRANDON WEBB is on pace to become only the 2nd pitcher ever to finish a season with; (A) an ERA under 4.00, (B) A walks per 9IP ratio above 5, and (C) a winning % under .300.
Webb is 5-14 (.263), with a 3.70 ERA and a walk ratio of 5.23 per 9 IP.

The only pitcher to accomplish this feat? RUSS CHRISTOPHER who for teh A's in 1942 went 4-13 with a 3.82 ERA and a 5.40 BB/9 IP ratio.

(Mark Camps, SF Chronicle)

~ Because of his tremendous 2nd half hot streak, ADRIAN BELTRE is on pace to become just the 3rd 3B of all-time to finish a season with a .325 average, 40 HR and 100 RBI. Here are his 2nd half stats: .377, 18, 38, in 151 at bats with a 1.226 OPS over 39 games.

The other two players to do this? Al Rosen (.336,43,135 in 1953) and Ken Caminiti (.326,40, 130 in 1996) ...and co-incidentally, both men won the MVP.

(Rotoworld August 26th, 2004)

AUGUST 22
HAPPY ANNIVERSARY MOM AND DAD

~ We have written a series of articles on relief pitchers, our most recent and possibly most controversial dealing with who the best NL closer is and it ISNT Eric Gagne (http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Flowers_BestNLCloser.htm). The man we tabbed was Danny Kolb and most often when we here replies from readers we hear something to the effect of ‘there’s no way he’ll be good for the long haul, he just doesn’t strike out enough guys.’ K or not, you can still be successful as a closer. Ever heard of Dan Quisenberry???

Over 6 years, 1980-1985, here are his stats.
41-33
212 SV
724.2 IP
246 K
OR
3.06 per 9 IP

Whereas KOLB is:
6-11
56 SV
156 IP
107 K
OR
6.17 per 9 IP

Here are the top 25 all-time save guys before the 2004 season.
SV / SO per 9 IP
1 Lee Smith 478 / 8.73
2 John Franco 424 / 7.01
3 Dennis Eckersley 390 / 6.58
4 Jeff Reardon 367 / 6.97
5 Trevor Hoffman 352 / 10.24
6 Randy Myers 347 / 8.99
7 Rollie Fingers 341 / 6.87
8 John Wetteland 330 / 9.46
9 Roberto Hernandez 320 / 8.20
10 Rick Aguilera 318 / 7.18
11 Robb Nen 314 / 9.98
12 Tom Henke 311 / 9.81
13 Goose Gossage 310 / 7.47
14 Jeff Montgomery 304 / 7.59
15 Doug Jones 303 / 7.25
16 Bruce Sutter 300 / 7.43
17 Rod Beck 286 / 7.61
T18 Mariano Rivera 283 / 8.06
T18 Troy Percival 283 / 10.84
20 Todd Worrell 256 / 8.15
21 Dave Righetti 252 / 7.13
22 Jose Mesa 249 / 6.20
23 Dan Quisenberry 244 / 3.27
24 Sparky Lyle 238 / 5.65
25 Hoyt Wilhelm 227 / 6.43

So while KOLB does lag a bit behind, its not really that bad. Nor is it really that important how many you K, cause an out is an out. And before you say something else…guys like Maddux and Glaving don’t strike many guys out and they have over 550 wins…its about pitching not K’s.

~~ For those of you who missed it ex-Giant JOE NATHAN recently lost his scoreless streak the other night afer 28 games without giving up a run of any kind (earned or unearned). For comparison Gagne's longest streak this year is also 28. Nathan has only given up a run in 3 games this season (out of 54) while Gagne has given up a run in 11 appearances (out of 54 games). Overall Nathan is 1-1 with 34 Sv, a 1.30 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a .190 BAA. The man is flat out dealing...our poor Giants...if they had only known.

AUGUST 13TH
FOR THOSE OF YOU INTERESTED IN THE RECENT 300 GAME WINNER DEBATE, SEE OUR ARTICLE AT:
http://www.athomeplate.com/ray300wins.shtml

AUGUST 12th
Edgar Martinez announced his retirement at the end of the 2004 season. Accoridng to Lee Sinnis, Martinez ranks 12th in career OBA vs. the league average (7500+ PA, since 1900)

OBA DIFF/ PLAYER/ LEAGUE
1 Ted Williams .134/ .482 /.348
2 Babe Ruth .118 /.474 /.356
3 Barry Bonds .103/ .439/ .336
4 Ty Cobb .093/ .433/ .340
5 Rogers Hornsby .091 /.434 /.342
6 Frank Thomas .089 /.429 /.339
7 Mickey Mantle .087 /.421 /.333
8 Lou Gehrig .086 /.447 /.361
9 Tris Speaker .084 /.428/ .344
10 Eddie Collins .082 /.424 /.342
11 Wade Boggs .082/ .415/ .333
12 Edgar Martinez .081 /.420/ .338
13 Stan Musial .079/ .417/ .338
14 Mel Ott .071/ .414 /.343
15 Jimmie Foxx .070 /.428/ .358

~ ICHIRO was AL Player of the Week. He went 16 for 31 (.516) with a .710 SLG%. In the Mariners last 21 games he has gone 50 for 100, for a .500 average!

~MELVIN MORA is hitting .500 in August (15 for 30) with 6 HR and 13 RBI. So much for another second half fade…Mora is hitting .365, 9,25 with a 1.195 OPS since the break (compared to last years .188,2,3, .592)

BAY AREA NEWS
~ Since coming off the DL on June 25th, JT SNOW is batting .361 (39 for 108) with 5 HR and 21 RBI.
~ RICH HARDEN is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his last 6 starts.
~ This just in… MATT HERGES isnt that good. He is 4-5 with a 5.65 ERA, and a 1.73 WHIP.
~ Keep an eye on JARIO GARICA (pronounce HI-row) who had burned up the minors this year. He pitched 30 innings at A, 18 at AA and 5 at AAA before pitching 2 scoreless innings for the A’s. His minor league numbers are astounding: 53 IP, 3-0, 0.67 ERA, 91 K, 19 Sv…that translates to a K rate of15.5 per 9 IP.

AUGUST 9th
~According to ESPN's Baseball Tonight...
here are the 5 active players with the greatest home/road Batting Average splits among active players.
(Home/Avg/Difference)
Helton .374/.297/.077
Walker .350/.279//071
McCracken .309/.250/.059
Varitek .294/.242/.052
Mayne .290/.240/.250

~ Here are Matt Clement's stats the past two months (June and July)...has this man been robbed or what?
2-7, 3.01 ERA, 82 K, 1.29 WHIP, .242 BA against in 77.2 IP.

Oh yeah, he's also 84th out of the 89 starting pictchers that qualify for the ERA title in Run Support @ 3.66

The other "winners":
89 Zach Day, 2.47
88 Ben Sheets, 3.23
87 Ryan Franklin, 3.28
86 Odalis Perez, 3.38
85 Kelvim Escobar 3.49

~Hank Blalock went from all-star stud, to all-star thud. His stats the last 2 months:
JUNE .367,9,24,.420 OBP, 1.099 OPS (109 AB)
JULY .190,3,17,.296 OBP,.626 OPS (100 AB)

What happend? In August he is still going down:
AUGUST .185,0,3,.200,.422 (27 AB)

AUGUST 2
~We must make a correction. In our previous RAYS NOTES of JULY 29th we made the claim that Ichiro was about to become the first man to have 3 seperate months in his career with 50 hits, but according to SABR member Trent McCotter, this is wrong. Mr. McCotter reported that Ty Cobb had 7 such months!

July 1908-51
July 1912-67
June 1917-51
July 1917-55
July 1918-50
May 1921-58
July 1922-67

Apprently ELIAS records, used by most mainstream sources, only go back until about 1950 with comprehensive effectiveness. Luckily the members of SABR are on the case!

~ Players of the month for JULY:
LoDuca, V.Martinez

1B
Pujols, Teixeira
2B
Reyes, M. Young
3B
Beltre, C. Guillen
SS
Matsui, Tejada
OF
Abreu, Damon
Edmonds, R. Winn
Burnitez, Ichiro
SP
Ru.Ortiz, Santana
Hampton, Lackey
Maddux, Garcia
Ol.Perez, Colon
RP
Smoltz, Nathan

(A story will be posted soon detailing their exploits...check back for the story).

JULY 29
~ Rotoworld.com claimed tonight that Scott Rolen finally had a down month in 2004. His stats in July: .302 with five home runs and 16 RBI in 22 games during July. Is that a down month???

~ Don't look now but the scariest NL lefty may no longer be Randy Johnson but Oliver Perez of the Pirates. WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING you say? Nothing. Compare their stats.
RJ is 10-8,2.68,174K in 151.1 IP, with a 0.89 WHIP
PEREZ is 6-5, 3.03, 143K in 119IP, with a 1.09 WHIP

Pretty darn close.

~ Ichiro needs 7 more hits in the last three games this month to become the first player EVER to have 3 seperate months with 50 hits. The other player with two such months...the hit king, Pete Rose.

~ Here are the players who have hit 50 HR in a season and what their AVG was in those seasons:
1 Barry Bonds 2001 (73) .328
2 Mark McGwire 1998 (70) .299
3 Sammy Sosa 1998 (66) .308
4 Mark McGwire 1999 (65) .278
5 Sammy Sosa 2001 (64) .328
6 Sammy Sosa 1999 (63) .288
7 Roger Maris 1961 (61) .269
8 Babe Ruth 1927 (60) .356
9 Babe Ruth 1921 (59) .378
T10 Jimmie Foxx 1932 (58) .364
T10 Hank Greenberg 1938 (58) .315
T10 Mark McGwire 1997 (58) .274
T13 Luis Gonzalez 2001 (57) .325
T13 Alex Rodriguez 2002 (57) .300
T15 Ken Griffey Jr. 1997 (56) .304
T15 Ken Griffey Jr. 1998 (56) .284
T15 Hack Wilson 1930 (56) .356
T18 Ralph Kiner 1949 (54) .310
T18 Babe Ruth 1920 (54) .376
T18 Mickey Mantle 1961 (54) .317
T18 Babe Ruth 1928 (54) .323
T22 George Foster 1977 (52) .320
T22 Mark McGwire 1996 (52) .312
T22 Mickey Mantle 1956 (52) .353
T22 Jim Thome 2002 (52) .304
T22 Alex Rodriguez 2001 (52) .318
T22 Willie Mays 1965 (52) .317
T28 Cecil Fielder 1990 (51) .277
T28 Ralph Kiner 1947 (51) .313
T28 Johnny Mize 1947 (51) .302
T28 Willie Mays 1955 (51) .319
T32 Brady Anderson 1996 (50) .297
T32 Jimmie Foxx 1938 (50) .349
T32 Albert Belle 1995 (50) .317
T32 Greg Vaughn 1998 (50) .272
T32 Sammy Sosa 2000 (50) .320

JULY 24
~ Royals' first baseman Mike Sweeney went 3-for-5 with a home run against the Indians Friday night and is now batting .407 with six home runs and 19 RBI in the 12 games since returning from his back injury (he is on pace for 31 HR an 117 RBI).

~ Johan Santana, JUNE/JULY Stats
6-3, 1.74 ERA, 77.2 IP, 0.67 WHIP (33 Hits, 19 BB), 101 K (11.8 per 9 IP), .094 batting average against.

~ Joe Nathan currently has a 19-inning scoreless streak. Nathan's ERA for the season is 1.01.

~How happy was Larry Walker tonight? Known as a superstious freak when it comes to the #3 (such as wearing the number 33), Walker went 3 for 3, with 3 runs and 3 RBI. This big night brought his season totals to 6 HR and 18 RBI (also two numbers divisible by three).

~ What the hell happened to Carlos Delgado? Injuries aside he is hitting .208, 11, 38 in 236 at bats. His OPS thus far is .702, over .300 points lower than his total last year 1.019 and .239 points below his career mark (.941). PATHETIC.

~ Former Cy Young winner Pat Hentgen retired Saturday at the age of 35. According to the Associated Press, Hentgen won the 1996 AL Cy Young Award, going 20-10 with a 3.22 ERA. The three-time All-Star spent 14 seasons in the majors, going 131-112 with a 4.32 ERA. He also pitched for St. Louis and Baltimore. According to ESPN's BASEBALL TONIGHT, Hentgen also has the highest Career ERA of any Cy Young winner at 4.32.

~ According to OUT OF THE BOX at ESPN (http://games.espn.go.com/cgi/flb/OutOfTheBox/index?gameDate=20040721 )
Carl Crawford is on pace to go 70/70 this year (SB and RBI). The last guy who even sniffed that feat was Kenny Lofton in 1996 when he went 75/67.

According to OUR research, here is the list of men who have accomplished 70 SB and 70 RBI in the same season since 1901:
SB/ RBI
Ty Cobb 1915, 96/ 99
Tim Raines 1983, 90/ 71
Clyde Milan 1912, 88/ 79
Rickey Henderson 1986, 87/ 74
Ty Cobb 1911, 83/ 127
Eddie Collins 1910, 81/ 81
Eric Davis 1986, 80/ 71
Rickey Henderson 1985, 80/ 72
Ty Cobb 1909, 76/ 107
Benny Kauff 1914, 75/ 95

AND
Juan Samuel just missed out in 1984 with 72 SB and 69 RBI.

JULY 21

I.) Who are the two players who have 3000 career...not hits...but singles?
ROSE 3215
COBB 3051

Figures right?

As for the greatest singles hitter deabte that can be read at :
http://forums.mlbcenter.com/index.php?

Amongst the top 50 all-time list of hitters (based on hits), Wee Willie had the highest average of singles at 85.7% (2512 of 2932). The next guy is Eddie Collins at 79.7 (2641 of 3312) and Jesse Burkett (2272 of 2850).

II.)In 1887 Tip Oniel produced the highest batting average EVER...did you know that?
Oniel's average in 1887 was .485 !!! Sure 1887 happened to be the only year that walks were counted as hits (see TOTAL BASEBALL, 8th Edition, p.2438), but it was still an amazing year. He not only won the Triple Crown (.485,14,123) but he also led the league in the following categories:
RUNS (167), HITS (275), 2B (52), 3B (14), OBP (.490), SLG (.691), OPS (1.1180).

III.)MATT HERGES troubles...

Besides being 2nd in the league in blown saves with 7 (to Danny Graves), Herges has been horrendous lately giving up 9 runs in his last 3 IP. ALOU has maintained that Herges is still the man, but in 2 of his last 3 appearances he has been forced to pull Herges…the writings on the wall.

Herges is really the 4th closer for the Giants….Nen (hurt), Worrell (free agent), Nathan (traded) and then Herges. So is it a surprise that he has struggled?

Herges has also allowed 17 of 28 INHERITED RUNNERS to score this year, meaning his 5.82 ERA could, and should, be even Higher!

On that note…you might want to keep an eye out for a future article that might be appearing on this site detailing closers abilities to keep inherited runners from scoring.

IV.) According to THE PITCHER by Thorn and HOLOWAY (p.45), MIKE KRUKOW, current Giants Broadcaster, once pitched a no-hitter in college for CAL-POLY, while walking 17 men!!!

CONTACT INFO

2004-07-14T17:21:00.000-07:00
To contact Ray Flowers:

ray@drafthelp.com

CARLOS BELTRAN AND KAUFFMAN STADIUM

2004-07-14T16:02:00.000-07:00
I recently wrote an article detailing whether or not the move from hitter friendly Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City would hurt new Astros Carlos Beltran’s statistics.
http://rototimes.com/index.php?sport=bsball&type=misc&name=F20040701165836

I also wrote an addendum to this piece (which is located BELOW) to answer a few questions that I received regarding the original work.

I would also recommend viewing fellow SABR member DAN FOX’s article on the topic of Kauffman Stadium at: http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2004/01/kauffman-park-effects.html.

MY ADDENDUM
OK, so I have gotten some replies about my Beltran article, and thanks to all of you for taking the time to write. Here is a response that I’ve written to speak to some people’s questions.

1. THE FENCES…Yes the fences were moved back this year, and yes it will have an effect on the way the park plays. That said I didn’t include in the overall discussion 2004 stadium stats because it’s really too early to know the full effect. Plus with only certain teams visiting Kauffman stadium thus far, it really isn’t safe to comment on the issue until the entire season has been played.

2. THE PARK…The way a park plays greatly effects the way the game is played and its results. YES the Royals pitching has been bad, and yes that effects how the park plays. But the data I presented is for BOTH teams in each park meaning that BOTH the home/away teams stats are reflected in the data (so they away stats would be equally effected by the Royals poor pitching).

Some more numbers for the 2002 and 2003 seasons:

HOUSTON- (includes the team they were playing against at each venue)

HOME games- .263, 304 HR, 1358 Runs
AWAY games- .251, 293HR, 1262 Runs
*** This means that there were 96 more runs scored in games at Houston versus games when they were the away team, and that both teams batted 12 points higher in Houston than when the Astros were the road team.

KANSAS CITY- (includes the team they were playing against at each venue)

HOME games- .284, 346 HR, 1645 Runs
AWAY games- .258, 281 HR, 1281 Runs
***This means that at games played in Kansas City, the Royals and the opposing team hit 26 points HIGHER, for 65 MORE HR and scored a whopping 364 MORE Runs than in games when the Royals were the road team.

Clearly Kauffman stadium has had a HUGE impact on offense versus when the Royals play on the road.

* For those of you who would like some documentation of that pick up THE BILL JAMES HANDBOOK 2004, where it lists just how each park performs in relation to others.

3. BELTRAN…I think some people have misunderstood my article a bit. I NEVER said that Beltran would be worse. My premise was that the move to Houston shouldn’t cause his numbers to go up solely because of the park change. Great players, an I assume Beltran is one, overcome whatever is thrown in front of them and I expect him to do just as well in Houston as he would have done if he had stayed in KC, but no any better.

Ray
Draftehlp.com
www.wildpitch.blogspot.com

ISOLATED POWER (ISO)

2004-07-08T17:18:00.000-07:00
Isolated Power [ISO]
A player's slugging average minus his batting average. Bill James provided its current name. Branch Rickey championed the stat, calling it "Power Average." A measure of a player's ability to hit for power considered apart from his ability to hit singles.

ISO= SLG - AVG

For an individual, ISO under .080 means he can be considered a singles hitter; ISO over .200 is very good power.

SEASON
MODERN (1900-)
ALL- TIME
CAREER

ISOLATED POWER
1 Babe Ruth .348
2 Mark McGwire .325
3 Barry Bonds .305
4 Lou Gehrig .292
5 Hank Greenberg .292
6 Ted Williams .289
7 Jimmie Foxx .284
8 Jim Thome .283
9 Manny Ramirez .281
10 Albert Pujols .279
11 Todd Helton .279
12 Carlos Delgado .275
13 Alex Rodriguez .273
14 Ralph Kiner .269
15 Albert Belle .269
16 Sammy Sosa .268
17 Ken Griffey Jr. .268
18 Juan Gonzalez .267
19 Vladimir Guerrero .265
20 Lance Berkman .262
21 Brian Giles .261
22 Mike Schmidt .260
23 Mickey Mantle .259
24 Frank Thomas .258
25 Willie Mays .256
26 Joe DiMaggio .254
27 Richie Sexson .254
28 Larry Walker .253
29 Harmon Killebrew .252
30 Mike Piazza .252
31 Johnny Mize .250
32 Hank Aaron .250
33 Jeff Bagwell .249
34 Jose Canseco .249
35 Jason Giambi .247
36 Willie Stargell .247
37 Darryl Strawberry .247
38 Willie McCovey .245
39 Russ Branyan .245
40 Duke Snider .244
41 Adam Dunn .243
42 Frank Robinson .243
43 Dave Kingman .242
44 Dick Allen .242
45 Ken Phelps .241
46 Jim Edmonds .240
47 Jay Buhner .240
48 Ryan Klesko .239
49 Troy Glaus .239
50 Eddie Mathews .238

ALL TIME
SINGLE SEASON

ISOLATED POWER YEAR
1 Barry Bonds 2001 .536
2 Babe Ruth 1920 .472
3 Babe Ruth 1921 .469
4 Mark McGwire 1998 .454
5 Barry Bonds 2002 .429
6 Mark McGwire 1996 .418
7 Mark McGwire 1999 .418
8 Babe Ruth 1927 .417
9 Sammy Sosa 2001 .409
10 Barry Bonds 2003 .408
11 Lou Gehrig 1927 .392
12 Babe Ruth 1928 .386
13 Jimmie Foxx 1932 .385
14 Barry Bonds 2000 .381
15 Frank Thomas 1994 .376
16 Albert Belle 1995 .374
17 Jim Thome 2002 .373
18 Babe Ruth 1930 .373
19 Mark McGwire 1997 .372
20 Babe Ruth 1923 .372
21 Mickey Mantle 1961 .370
22 Hank Greenberg 1938 .369
23 Hack Wilson 1930 .368
24 Babe Ruth 1926 .366
25 Luis Gonzalez 2001 .363
26 Babe Ruth 1924 .361
27 Jimmie Foxx 1938 .356
28 Larry Walker 1997 .354
29 Rogers Hornsby 1925 .353
30 Mickey Mantle 1956 .353
31 Babe Ruth 1929 .353
32 Roger Maris 1961 .351
33 Todd Helton 2001 .349
34 Ralph Kiner 1949 .348
35 Jimmie Foxx 1933 .347
36 Sammy Sosa 1999 .347
37 Willie Stargell 1973 .347
38 Manny Ramirez 2000 .346
39 Kevin Mitchell 1989 .344
40 Lou Gehrig 1934 .344
41 Jim Gentile 1961 .344
42 Ted Williams 1957 .343
43 Lou Gehrig 1930 .343
44 Jim Edmonds 2003 .342
45 Ken Griffey Jr. 1997 .342
46 Lou Gehrig 1936 .342
47 Hank Aaron 1971 .341
48 Barry Bonds 1993 .341
49 Brady Anderson 1996 .340
50 Willie Mays 1955 .340
51 Sammy Sosa 1998 .339
52 Mike Schmidt 1980 .338
53 Willie McCovey 1969 .336
54 Babe Ruth 1919 .336
55 Jimmie Foxx 1939 .334
56 Reggie Jackson 1969 .333
57 Jim Thome 2001 .333
58 Willie Stargell 1971 .333
59 Hank Greenberg 1937 .332
60 Larry Walker 1999 .331
61 Hank Greenberg 1940 .330
62 Manny Ramirez 1999 .330
63 Juan Gonzalez 1996 .329
64 Ted Williams 1941 .329
65 Mark McGwire 1987 .329
66 Willie Mays 1965 .328
67 Babe Ruth 1931 .328
68 Ken Griffey Jr. 1998 .327
69 Hank Greenberg 1946 .327
70 Joe DiMaggio 1937 .327
71 Albert Belle 1998 .327
72 Al Simmons 1930 .327
73 Todd Helton 2000 .326
74 Stan Musial 1948 .326
75 Ralph Kiner 1947 .326
76 Dave Kingman 1979 .325
77 Ted Williams 1946 .325
78 Ken Griffey Jr. 1996 .325
79 Eddie Mathews 1953 .325
80 Greg Vaughn 1998 .325
81 Brian Giles 2002 .324
82 Alex Rodriguez 2002 .324
83 Willie McCovey 1970 .323
84 Juan Gonzalez 1993 .323
85 Richard Hidalgo 2000 .323
86 Willie Mays 1954 .322
87 Lou Gehrig 1931 .321
88 Johnny Mize 1940 .321
89 Frank Robinson 1966 .321
90 Rogers Hornsby 1922 .321
91 Carlos Delgado 2000 .320
92 Troy Glaus 2000 .320
93 Duke Snider 1955 .320
94 Babe Ruth 1932 .319
95 Jimmie Foxx 1934 .319
96 Vladimir Guerrero 2000 .319
97 Ralph Kiner 1951 .318
98 Ralph Kiner 1950 .318
99 Harmon Killebrew 1961 .318
100 Gary Sheffield 2000 .317

SEASON
2004
ISOLATED POWER ISO
1 Barry Bonds .450
2 Jim Edmonds .341
3 Albert Pujols .326
4 Jim Thome .307
5 Manny Ramirez .305
6 Adam Dunn .303
7 David Ortiz .302
8 Adrian Beltre .294
9 Scott Rolen .284
10 Carlos Beltran .280
11 Mark Teixeira .279
12 Jeromy Burnitz .276
13 Todd Helton .272
14 Travis Hafner .272
15 Carlos Delgado .266
16 Moises Alou .265
17 J.D. Drew .264
18 Vinny Castilla .264
19 Sammy Sosa .264
20 Vladimir Guerrero .261
21 Aramis Ramirez .260
22 Jose Valentin .258
23 Paul Konerko .258
24 Lance Berkman .250
25 Mike Cameron .247

SEASON
2003

ISOLATED POWER
1 Barry Bonds .408
2 Jim Edmonds .342
3 Albert Pujols .308
4 Jim Thome .306
5 David Ortiz .304
6 Alex Rodriguez .301
7 Frank Thomas .295
8 Carlos Delgado .291
9 Jason Giambi .277
10 Richie Sexson .276
11 Sammy Sosa .275
12 Gary Sheffield .274
13 Trot Nixon .272
14 Todd Helton .271
15 Richard Hidalgo .263
16 Manny Ramirez .262
17 Jose Guillen .258
18 Preston Wilson .255
19 Mike Lowell .254
20 Jeromy Burnitz .248
21 Rafael Palmeiro .248
22 Jeff Bagwell .246
23 Aubrey Huff .244
24 Geoff Jenkins .242
25 Scott Rolen .242

SEASON
2002

ISOLATED POWER
1 Barry Bonds .429
2 Jim Thome .373
3 Brian Giles .324
4 Alex Rodriguez .324
5 Sammy Sosa .306
6 Rafael Palmeiro .299
7 Manny Ramirez .298
8 Lance Berkman .285
9 Jason Giambi .284
10 Magglio Ordonez .276
11 Shawn Green .273
12 Carlos Delgado .271
13 Larry Walker .264
14 Mike Piazza .264
15 Pat Burrell .263
16 Vladimir Guerrero .257
17 Mark Bellhorn .254
18 Jeff Kent .252
19 Jim Edmonds .250
20 Andruw Jones .248
21 Todd Helton .248
22 Albert Pujols .247
23 Alfonso Soriano .247
24 Cliff Floyd .244
25 Raul Ibanez .243

SEASON
2001

ISOLATED POWER
1 Barry Bonds .536
2 Sammy Sosa .409
3 Luis Gonzalez .363
4 Todd Helton .349
5 Jim Thome .333
6 Jason Giambi .317
7 Larry Walker .312
8 Alex Rodriguez .304
9 Manny Ramirez .302
10 Shawn Green .300
11 Rafael Palmeiro .290
12 Lance Berkman .289
13 Phil Nevin .282
14 Albert Pujols .281
15 Brian Giles .281
16 Troy Glaus .281
17 Jeff Bagwell .280
18 Richie Sexson .276
19 Chipper Jones .274
20 Mike Piazza .272
21 Gary Sheffield .272
22 Juan Gonzalez .265
23 Ellis Burks .262
24 Carlos Delgado .261
25 Cliff Floyd .261

SEASON
2000

ISOLATED POWER
1 Barry Bonds .381
2 Manny Ramirez .346
3 Todd Helton .326
4 Richard Hidalgo .323
5 Carlos Delgado .320
6 Troy Glaus .320
7 Vladimir Guerrero .319
8 Gary Sheffield .317
9 Sammy Sosa .315
10 Jason Giambi .314
11 Jeff Bagwell .305
12 David Justice .298
13 Frank Thomas .297
14 Alex Rodriguez .291
15 Mike Piazza .290
16 Jim Edmonds .288
17 Carl Everett .286
18 Geoff Jenkins .285
19 Ken Griffey Jr. .285
20 Brian Giles .279
21 Rafael Palmeiro .269
22 Moises Alou .269
23 Brad Fullmer .263
24 Steve Finley .263
25 Jeff Kent .262

The BEST NL Closer ISNT Gagne

2004-07-08T00:51:00.001-07:00
The Best Closer in the
National League Isn’t Named
Eric Gagne
by
Ray Flowers

July 7th, 2004

OK, can you tell us who these stats belong to?

SV ERA WHIP BAA
25 0.84 0.81 .194
*BAA= batting average against

If you said Eric Gagne, well…you’re mistaken. If you said Armando Benitez, try again. Danny Graves? Keep guessing. In fact, we would stipulate that these stats belong to the closer who has been the best in the National League during the 2004 season, and since we already know these stats don’t belong to Gange, we might be stating the unthinkable to some of you:

The best closer in the National League in the first half of the 2004 season is… Danny Kolb.

Blasphemous you say? No we haven’t lost our mind, and no this isn’t a joke. All we ask is that you keep an open mind and listen to the evidence and let it speak to you. Forget what everyone says, forget your own preconceived notions, let the statistical information inform your opinion. On the day after Gagne blew his first save after converting 84 straight chances, we will examine the question of who the best closer in the NL is thus far in 2004.

THE EVIDENCE:

PART I- TRADITIONAL

Let’s look at the traditional information that we use to judge closers and compare the numbers of Danny Kolb, the aforementioned Eric Gagne, the league leader in saves in Danny Graves, and the Marlins Armando Benitez.

SV ERA WHIP BAA
Kolb 25 0.84 0.81 .194
Gagne 21 2.00 0.83 .165
Graves 31 2.89 1.07 .251
Benitez 27 1.07 0.88 .154

In this initial comparison there is little to tell the four apart unless you go by the save total. However, as we will explain, the raw total of saves is often what gets people into trouble as they become fixated upon it to the exclusion of other more relevant information. In order to show just how hallow Graves save total is, let’s take a look at blown saves. Here are the blown saves for each pitcher in 2004, followed by their save percentage (a figure which is more informative of a closers effectiveness than his raw save total):

BS SV%
Kolb 1 96.2%
Gagne 1 95.4%
Graves 7 81.6%
Benitez 2 93.1%

Again not much to tell the pitchers apart other than the fact that Graves falls rather precipitously in this statistical measurement.

How about we look at each player’s Rolaids relief points as of July 7th and see how they stack up. Rolaids points are figured by scoring 2 points for a win, 3 points for a save, 4 points for a "tough save" (which is entering the game with the tying run on base), and a minus 2 points for a loss or a blown save. The Rolaids standings:

Kolb 73
Gagne 66
Graves 75
Benitez 83

We will admit to having a few issues for the way that Rolaids tabulates its points our most salient contention being how is it that you are awarded three points for a save and only a (–2) points for a blown save? Shouldn’t a failure at least weigh as much as a success? Some people, including the author, would even argue that a failure should count for more, but any way you look at it, there is no common sense reason that it should count for less. Another issue that we have is with the definition of the save itself: should a pitcher really receive a save if he enters the game with the tying run on deck? On May 6th Gagne earned a “save’ on 3 pitches after coming into the game with a 9 to 4 lead and the bases loaded. If he had given up a grand slam his team would have still been in the lead! Anyway, this is not the place for us to make this argument, that time will come in an upcoming piece.

Why don’t we move on to list some less well-known statistical information to buttress our contention that Kolb has been the best NL closer in the first half.

PART II-
NON-TRADITIONAL ANALYSIS

Lets chart our four hurlers according to these non-traditional, but equally important categories.

K/BB OBPA SLGA OPSA
Kolb 2.20 .235 .194 .429
Gagne 5.56 .234 .299 .533
Graves 5.20 .273 .458 .731
Benitez 2.33 .231 .273 .504
*K/BB= Strikeouts divided by walks.
**OBP Against, SLG Against, OPS Against

Again, Gagne has done nothing to distance himself from the other three and we are beginning to see just why we are making the argument in favor of Kolb. Kolb allows an OPS that is 96 points less than Gagne, a rather staggering difference of almost 20%!

What about the damage that the pitchers give up with those hits (measured by the total bases these closers give up on all the hits they have surrendered)? Through 32 innings, Kolb has not given up one extra base hit…not a single HR, not a lucky bouncing triple down the first base line, and not a broken bat double. Kolb has NOT ALLOWED ONE EXTRA BASE HIT THIS SEASON! In comparison Gagne has allowed 5 2B and 4 HR, Graves 10 2B and 9 HR, and Benitez 5 2B and 4 HR. Just think about that for a minute, Kolb has not allowed a single extra base hit, that’s utterly remarkable. Here’s the Total Base (TB) list:

TBA IP TBA/IP
Kolb 21 32.0 0.66
Gagne 38 35.0 1.09
Graves 82 46.2 1.76
Benitez 39 42.0 0.93
*TBA= Total Bases Allowed
Another category, another convincing “win” for Kolb. And speaking of Kolb’s greatness, look at poor Mr. Graves. Graves allows bases at a frequency that more than doubles Kolb mark, another startling reason that should be used to devalue what Graves has accomplished thus far.

Building on Kolb’s sizable lead in bases allowed, we move on to discussing just how the balls put in play are actually hit off each hurler. Kolb keeps the ball in the park by keeping the ball down in the strikezone as evidenced by his 4.00 groundball to flyball ratio (meaning that Kolb allows 4 groundballs for every flyball). The others ratios of groundballs to flyballs: Gagne’s is 0.93, Graves 1.59 and Benitez 0.45. This is yet another reason which helps to illustrate why Kolb leads the other relievers in pitching effectiveness because its obvious that your less likely to give up a big inning if you keep the ball on the ground than if you let guys put the ball in the air. One side note: Kolb throws only 13.9 pitches per inning, just behind Graves’ 13.6 (with Gagne at 14.5 and Benitez 15.2) meaning that he is more economical than his Dodger nemesis as well.

CONLCUSION

So let’s present all the information that we have cited in this article in one final chart. We will award 1 point for leading the category down to 4 for a last place finish in each category. Therefore the closer who ends up with the lowest total will be the “winner.”

SV SV% Rolaids ERA
Kolb 3 1 3 1
Gagne 4 2 4 3
Graves 1 4 2 4
Benitez 2 3 1 2

WHIP BAA OBPA SLGA
Kolb 1 3 3 1
Gagne 2 2 2 3
Graves 4 4 4 4
Benitez 3 1 1 2

OPSA TBA/IP K/BB G/F
Kolb 1 1 4 1
Gagne 3 3 1 3
Graves 4 4 2 2
Benitez 2 2 3 4

TOTALS
Kolb- 23
Benitez- 26
Gagne- 32
Graves- 39

After having surveyed 12 separate categories our winner is… Danny Kolb. Now this is not to say that Gagne is terrible, he clearly isn’t, and it’s not to say that Kolb is the best closer of all-time, he clearly isn’t. What it does state, and rather emphatically, is that the best closer in the NL during the first half of the 2004 season resides in the park that has the CF slide and Bernie Brewer. So the next time the game is on the line and your blood pressure goes up and you hear “Hells Bells” or some other closers anthem, remember that the man you want closing the game for your team doesn’t reside in L.A., he actually pitches for the Milwaukee Brewers.

RAYS NOTES

I didn’t want to write a story about the Gagne streak, so lucky for me that Tim Kurkjian of ESPN did
(http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=1832526). Read what he wrote, he makes a pretty good argument for the idea that for all of Gagne’s greatness, historically speaking, it just doesn’t measure up to what other have accomplished.

Ray Flowers can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@drafthelp.com
You can also visit Rays’ blog at www.wildpitch.blogspot.com for a full review of all of his recent articles an other interesting stuff or view his work at www.drafthelp.com.

THE FAVORITE TOY...Predictions of Career Accomplishments

2004-06-30T13:02:00.000-07:00
See story
http://www.athomeplate.com/favoritetoy.shtml

For the sake of this example we will use Arod stats prior to the start of the 2004 season, and use the “Toy” to figure out his chances at career totals in hits.

At the start of the 2004 season, Arod had 1535 hits.
Lets figure out what his chances are for reaching 3000 hits.

1. The number of hits the player needs to reach the goal.
2. How many years he has left to reach the goal.
3. His estimated hit level.
4. His projected remaining hits.

I. First you begin with the players current stat: 1535 hits.
(a) You then subtract that stat from the goal (in this case 3000 hits) = 1465

II. Years Remaining
(a) Take the players age at the start of the last season completed (Arod was 27).
(b) FORMULA: 24 - .6 (age)
(c) 24 - .6(27) = 7.8
(d) IF the player is a catcher, multiply the answer from line C by .7
(e) IF the player is older than 39, he still receives 1.5 years remaining, for that is the lowest number that can be given in this formula.

III. Established Level
(a) Add the last three years totals together by the following formula:
Most recent season TIMES 3, next season TIMES 2, then 3rd Season.

For Arod that would mean: 2003 (181), 2002 (187), 2001(201).

OR
201 + 187 (2) + 181 (3) = 201+374 + 543 = 1118
then divide by 6 = 186.3

IV. Projected Remaining
(a) Multiply years remaining by established level.
AROD: 7.8 x 186.3 = 1453

V. Probability
Take Projected Remaining / Amount Needed, then subtract .50
(1453/1465) - .50
.99 - .50 = .49

OR

Arod has a 49% chance of reaching 3,000 career hits.

Pitch Counts,...When Did They Start?

2004-06-30T12:18:00.000-07:00
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=
whoscountingpitchestheas&prov=tsn&type=lgns

Who's counting (pitches)? The A's -- as early as 1967

By Stan McNeal - SportingNews

Dave Duncan was a catcher for the Kansas City Athletics in 1967 when he first heard about pitch counts. Charlie Finley, the club's unconventional owner, and farm director Eddie Robinson had ordered a 100-pitch per-start maximum throughout the A's farm system. The objective: Don't overextend young arms.

"I remember because they took out George Lauzerique when he had a no-hitter going," Duncan says. Lauzerique was lifted after seven innings in a Class AA game in '67 when his pitch count reached 97. Two months later, Lauzerique, who wound up having a short career in the majors, pitched a perfect game in a minor league contest scheduled for seven innings, accomplishing the feat with 85 pitches.

Thirty-seven years later, limiting pitches is as much a part of the game as the setup man. But until well into the 1970s, a 100-pitch outing was considered little more than a warmup for most starters. And those who pitched back then always seem to enjoy telling stories about how manly the starters were.

Gaylord Perry remembers a game he started for the Giants against the Reds in 1967. The score was 0-0 heading into the 16th inning when manager Herman Franks cozied up to Perry and asked, "You got another inning in you?" Perry, who topped the 300-inning mark six times during his Hall of Fame career (no one has topped 300 in a season since the Phillies' Steve Carlton did it in 1980), said yes, of course. He made it through the inning without giving up a run and turned the game over to the bullpen. The Giants went on to win, 1-0, in 21 innings.

Tom Seaver says he had a pitch count for the Mets in the 1970s. It was 135 pitches, which are about 25 more than when the caution flags go up these days. Seaver says the Mets' Jerry Koosman and Nolan Ryan were good for 145 and 155.

Jim Palmer recalls he once informed Orioles manager Earl Weaver that Mike Cuellar was going on 110 pitches entering the ninth. Weaver, never one to miss a chance to put Palmer in his place, told his ace righthander, "Get your (butt) back to the end of the dugout. I'll tell you when he's tired."

But in this age of long-term contracts and $2.49 million average salaries, clubs tend to care more about their investments than they did before the free-agent era. Pitch counts today are monitored as closely as wins and earned-run average. Their importance is noted by their inclusion in box scores and scouting reports. Many teams count warmup pitches as closely as pitches thrown during the game. With so much attention on pitch counts, most starters have come to believe their day is done shortly after hitting the 100-pitch mark. American League starters are averaging 96.4 pitches a game this season, according to STATS Inc.; N.L. starters are lasting 94.3.

For the 21st-century pitching coach such as the Mets' Rick Peterson, counting pitches is nearly as important to his job as teaching a fluid delivery. The reason is simple: Many believe the leading cause for pitching injuries is overwork, and monitoring pitch counts is the most accurate way to judge workloads.

Even older former players such as Seaver believe in the benefits of counting pitches. Seaver wishes the individual involved was a greater part of the equation, though. "It's seems like there's a blanket number that they use on everyone," he says.

Tigers pitching coach Bob Cluck is another big supporter of limiting workloads. When he was pitching coach for the Astros in 1991, the team pulled rookie Darryl Kile even though he had no-hit the Reds for six innings. It was Kile's first start in the majors, he had not thrown more than 41 pitches in a previous big-league game, and the Astros had decided beforehand to limit him to 50 to 60 pitches. "He had 65 at the end of six, and (manager) Art Howe and I took him out," Cluck says. "(The media) barbecued us. I told Darryl that someday you'll throw a no-hitter. And he did, the year after the next."

Stan McNeal is a managing editor for Sporting News. Email him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.

Updated on Monday, Jun 28, 2004 4:47 pm EDT

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All-Time HOF BB Lists

2004-06-24T15:17:00.000-07:00
SEE STORY
http://www.athomeplate.com/bondswalks04.shtml

Here is a complete list of all HOFamers, inducted primarily for their hitting exploits, and their single season career high in BB (number in parenthesis is the number of seasons in which they recorded 100 BB). Keep in mind, that out of the 129 HOFamers surveyed, only 38 of them even had one 100 walk season.

Bonds 198 (12)
Ruth 170 (13)
T.Williams 162 (11)
Mantle 146 (10)
Killebrew 145 (7)
Kiner 137 (6)
McCovey 137 (3)
Gehrig 132 (11)
J.Morgan 132 (8)
Schmidt 128 (3)
Hamilton 126 (5)
Yaz 126 (6)
Ashburn 125 (3)
Matthews 124 (5)
Appling 122 (3)
Collins 119 (2)
Greenberg 119 (3)
Foxx 119 (2)
Ott 118 (10)
Vaughan 118 (2)
Cobb 118
PeeWee Reese 116 (2)
R.Connor 116
Reggie Jax 114
Anson 113
Gehringer 113 (2)
Mays 112
Evers 108
Hornsby 107
Kelley 107
Musial 107 (3)
E.Murray 107
J.Robinson 106
Cochrane 106 (2)
H.Wilson 105
Snider 104
Brett 103
Doby 102 (2)
Bench 100
Brouthers 99
Averill 99
Sewell 98
Lazerri 97
Speaker 97
Mize 94
B.McPhee 94
McCarthy 93
Goslin 92
H.Aaron 92
Rizutto 92
Cronin 91
P.Waner 89
Irvin 89
Hooper 89
OzzieSmith 89
Slaughter 88
Stargell 87
Delahanty 86
Flick 86
T.Jackson 85
Winfield 85
Kelly 83
Bresnahan 83
Kaline 83
T.Perez 83
Doerr 83
Herman 82
Combs 81
Carey 80
Dimaggio 80
F.Clarke 80
Bancroft 79
Jennings 78
Helimann 78
Chance 78
G.Carter 78
Yount 78
Carew 78
Dickey 77
R.Youngs 77
B.Williams 77
Brock 76
Fisk 75
Fox 75
Bottomley 74
Cuyler 72
Kell 71
Banks 71
Crawford 69
Schalk 68
Maranville 68
Campanella 67
H.Wagner 67
Duffy 66
Aparicio 66
Berra 66
Davis 66
Hartnett 65
Terry 64
Frisch 64
HR Baker 63
Walalce 63
B.Robinson 63
Cepeda 62
Klein 60
Schoendiest 60
Lajoie 60
S.Thompson 59
Rice 57
Puckett 57
Clemente 56
Traynor 54
Beckley 54
Simmons 53
Wheat 52
Hafey 52
O'Rourke 49
Sisler 49
Lindstrom 48
Manush 47
Kelly 47
Roush 46
Medwick 45
Keeler 43
Tinker 43
Lombardi 43
Collins 41
Ewing 41
L.Waner 40
Mazeroski 40

Inter-League Play, Does it Effect League Winners?

2004-06-20T18:04:00.000-07:00
*** The following excerpt is taken from a SABR, Society for American Baseball Research, Internet discussion group and discusses the impact of Inter-League play on Divisional winners. Have any of the races been affected by Inter-League play? This article is reproduced with permission of its author, James Vail, and we would like to thank him for allowing us to do so.

Inter-League Play and Post Season Qualification
by
James Vail

In the period since inter-league play began in 1998 there have been seven instances in which it might be argued that the comparative results of inter-league competition directly determined the outcome of various divisional races. Of course, it can always be argued as well that each of the outcomes displayed below would've been different if the second-place teams had only played better against in-league competition. Regardless, the seven incidents include the following.

1999 NL CENTRAL: Houston finished at 97-65 (.599), Cincinnati at 96-67 (.589), 1.5 games back. The Astros played 15 inter-league games, going 12-3 (.800), while the Reds played 12 games against AL competition, going 2-10 (.167). So, in NL-only games, Cincinnati was 89-59 (.601),good enough for a 3.5-game lead over Houston's 85-62 (.578). Houston's five inter-league opponents were the clubs in the AL Central, who combined for a 1999 record of 368-437 (.457). Cincinnati did not play the White Sox, but did play Detroit, KC, Minnesota and Cleveland, who combined for 293-351 (.455), so there was little difference in the relative strength of their inter-league schedules.

2000 NL EAST: Atlanta won the division at 95-67 (.586), one game ahead of New York, 94-68 (.580). The Braves were 11-7 (.611) in inter-league play, the Mets were 9-9 (.500). So New York was 85-59 (.590) against the NL, Atlanta was 84-60 (.583), one game worse. The Braves' inter-league slate included six home-and-away games against Boston, plus three against each of the other four AL East clubs. The combined record for those teams in 2000 was 398-410 (.493), or 483-487 (.498) if you count Boston's mark twice (because they played twice as many games against Atlanta as the others). The Mets played the same five clubs,with the only difference being that they had a 3-home,3-away series against the first-place Yankees instead of Boston. So the strength of their inter-league schedule was either identical to Atlanta's, or 485-484 (.501) if you count the Yanks twice.

2000 AL EAST: NY won the division at 87-74 (.540), with Boston second at 85-77 (.525). The Yanks were 11-6 (.747) in inter-league play, the Red Sox 9-9 (.500). So both teams finished with identical AL-only marks of 76-68 (.528). Their inter-league schedules were essentially the reciprocal of the Braves-Mets that year, with both clubs playing the full NL East, the Yanks playing six games against the Mets and the Bosox with six against Atlanta. The NL East teams combined for a 400-409 (.494) mark. Counting the Mets twice, that equates to a 494-477 (.509)against the Yankees. Counting Atlanta twice gives Boston opponents a 495-476 (.510) --- essentially a wash equity-wise.

2001 NL EAST: Atlanta won the division at 88-74 (.543), with Philadelphia second at 86-76 (.531). The Braves went 9-9 (.500) in inter-league play, the Phillies 7-11 (.389). That gave them identical 79-65 (.549) records against NL-only opponents. Atlanta played the same inter-league slate as in 2000, with six games against Boston, three apiece against the rest of the AL East. The Phils also played all five AL East teams, with their six-game, home-away set against Baltimore. The AL East that season played at 382-424 (.474) overall. Counting Boston tice gives Atlanta's inter-league opposition a 464-503 (.480) mark, while counting Baltimore twice puts the Phils' opponents at 445-522 (.460). So Philadelphia missed a chance to take advantage of a 20-point advantage in inter-league strength of schedule.

2001 NL CENTRAL: Houston and St. Louis tied for the division lead at 93-69 (.574) each, with the Astros awarded the division title based on tie-breaker criteria and the Cards earning the playoff wild-card. Houston was 9-6 (.600) in inter-league play, St. Louis 8-7 (.533). So the Cards had an NL-only record of 85-62 (.578) that was one game better than Houston's 84-63 (.571). Houston's inter-league slate included three games each against Cleveland, KC and Minnesota of the AL Central, plus a 3-home, 3-away series against AL West Texas. The Cards' played three games each against all five AL Central clubs, including the White Sox and Detroit. Houston's opposition played to a 314-334 (.485) mark, or 387-423 (.478) if you count Texas twice. St. Louis' inter-league opposition went 390-420 (.481). So the strength of their inter-league schedules was about equal, and which team enjoyed a small advantage depends on how you weight the Astros-Rangers series.

2002 NL WEST: This one is much more interesting. Arizona claimed the division title at 98-64 (.605), with SF second at 95-66 (.590), 2.5 games back. The D-Backs were 11-7 (.611) in inter-league play, the Giants 8-10 (.444). So SF's NL-only record of 87-56 (.608) was actually one-half game better than Arizona's 87-57 (.604). The D-Backs'
inter-league slate included three-game sets against four AL East clubs Baltimore, Boston, NY and Toronto) plus two AL Central teams (Detroit and Cleveland). The Giants also played the Orioles, Yankees and Toronto, but had a three-game set against Tampa Bay and a six-game, home-away series with cross-bay rival (and first-place) Oakland.

The two clubs' common inter-league opponents (the Yanks, Jays and O's) combined for a record of 248-237 (.511), and the separate, three-game series against Detroit (56-106) and Tampa (55-106) were essentially a wash. Both teams went 4-5 against their common IL opponents and 2-1 against Det-TB. So the difference in their inter-league marks came down to Az-v-Bos/Cle and SF-v-Oak. Arizona was 2-1 against the Indians and somehow swept the Red Sox at Fenway. SF could do no better than 2-4 against the A's. The D-Backs' inter-league opponents combined for an overall mark of 471-500 (.485). The Giants' opposition was 406-402 (.502), or 509-461 (.525) if you double-count Oakland. There seems to be little doubt in this instance that the inequity in the two clubs'
inter-league schedules (a 38.5-game difference when the A's are counted twice) was the determining factor in which team won the division. The irony, of course, is that SF claimed the wild-card spot anyway and then beat Atlanta, Arizona was eliminated by St. Louis in the NLDS, and the Giants went on to the World Series.

2002 AL WEST: Oakland won the division at 103-59 (.636), with Anaheim second at 99-63 (.611), four games back. Oakland posted an inter-league record of 16-2 (.889), the best-ever single-season mark to date for inter-league play (Atlanta's 15-3, .833 that same year ranks second-best). The Angels were 11-7 (.611) in inter-league games, exactly matching their full-season and AL-only percentages. The net result was that Anaheim's AL-only record of 88-56 (.611) was one game better than Oakland's 87-57 (.604). Beyond their six-game, home-away series against SF, Oakland's inter-league opponents included NL Central clubs Cincinnati, Houston, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh (three games each). Anaheim played a six-game, 3H-3A set against Los Angeles, and three games apiece against Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and St. Louis.

So they shared three common IL opponents that combined for a 206-279 (.425) season record. Adding the Giants and Astros to the Oakland ledger gives their inter-league opposition an overall mark of 385-423 (.476), or 480-489 (.495) when SF is counted twice. Including St. Louis and the Dodgers in the Anaheim slate gives the Angels' inter-league opponents a record of 395-414 (.488), or 487-484 (..502) with LA double-counted. So Oakland benefitted from an inter-league slate that was either .012 or .007 easier than Anaheim's, but hardly enough to explain its five-game edge versus the Angels in inter-league play.

In addition to those seven instances, there have been two occasions when it could be argued that inter-league play determined the outcome of wild-card races. They include:

1999 NL: The Mets finished at 97-66 (.595) to claim the wild-card by a one-game margin over Cincinnati's 96-67 (.589). New York went 12-6(.667) in inter-league play, while the Reds were 7-8 (.467). So Cincinnati, at 89-59 (.601) actually enjoyed a 4.5-game, NL-only advantage over the Mets, who were 85-60 (.586) against teams in their own circuit. New York's inter-league schedule included a six-game, home-away series against the Yankees, and three games each against Baltimore, Boston, Tampa and Toronto. The Reds played a six-game, home-away series against cross-state rival Cleveland, plus three games each against Detroit, Kansas City and Minnesota --- so there were no common inter-league opponents. The Mets' IL opposition posted an overall season mark of 423-387 (.522), or 521-451 (.536) if the Yankees are double-counted. Cincinnati's inter-league opponents combined for an overall record of 293-351 (.455), or 390-416 (.484) if you count Cleveland twice. So the Reds clearly failed to capitalize on a distinct advantage in the relative strength of the two clubs' inter-league schedules.

2002 AL: Anaheim went 99-63 (.611) on the season, six games better than Boston's 93-69 (.574). The Angels were 11-7 (.611) in inter-league play, Boston at 5-13 (.278). So both clubs were 88-56 (.611) against AL-only competition. As described above, Anaheim's inter-league slate was six games against LA, three apiece versus the Reds, Brewers, Pirates and Cards. Boston played its usual six-game set with Atlanta, plus three games each against the Dodgers, Padres, Rockies and D-Backs. As noted earlier, the Angels' IL opponents posted a record of 395-414 (.488), or 487-484 (.502) if LA is double-counted. Boston's inter-league opposition came in at 430-378 (.532), or 531-437 (.549) if the Braves are counted twice. So inter-league play was the entire difference in the two teams' 2002 records, and there is no doubt that Anaheim enjoyed a huge advantage in the relative strengths of their IL schedules.

The seven division-race incidents described above represent 19.4 percent of the 36 divisional titles won in the period 1998-2003, and the two wild-card examples are 16.7 percent of the dozen WCs earned in that time. Combined, they equate to 18.8 percent of the 48 possible cases.

Obviously, I haven't had the numerous spare hours it would take to calculate the strength of schedule for the inter-league slates of every team since 1998. But in terms of inter-league schedule equity, the first three seasons of IL play (when most clubs merely competed against teams from the same division of the other league) could not have produced any truly dramatic inequities in strength of schedule. On a year-to-year basis, most divisions --- even the four-team AL West --- tend to include a relative balance of teams with winning and losing records that equates to something near a .500 mark for the division as a whole.

Based on the examples above, however, that pattern appears to have changed somewhat since the division-oriented schedule went into effect in 2001, and because --- in an effort to assure year-to-year variety in IL scheduling --- more teams are now playing inter-league slates that include clubs from at least two divisions (given the added constraints imposed by division-oriented scheduling, I assume both factors are related). As a result, it seems that larger and more frequent strength-of-schedule inequities in inter-league competition were predictable beginning with 2001, and should probably be expected to become even more frequent commensurate with additional variety in inter-league match-ups (I would also argue that the small --- and perhaps not statistically significant --- number of examples above are generally consistent with that analysis).

In that light, it seems apparent that the best way to minimize strength-of-schedule inequities in inter-league play is to utilize (much as possible) some format in which all teams in each division only play IL games against the clubs in one division of the other circuit in a season, and to avoid situations where some clubs are playing multiple teams from two or more different divisions in the other league. This could still be rotated on a yearly basis to ensure that big-draw teams like the Yankees appear in every city at least once every six seasons.

Beyond that, the simplest way to assure relative strength-of-schedule equity would be to dump inter-league play altogether. As a Sabermetrician, I find inter-league play to be something just short of a statistical nightmare, especially when trying to justify end-of-season data. As a fan, it's my subjective opinion that true competitive equity is far more important to the integrity and legitimacy of baseball as a product than the infrequent opportunity I may have under IL play to pay to see the Yankees come to Phoenix once every half-dozen years or so. Given the spread of cable television, I also believe that most fans in American League cities can see Barry Bonds being walked intentionally 12 times in a three-game set much better (and get a far clearer sense of his plus-plus skills at trotting to first base) on their televisions at home than they might from any seat most folks can afford to purchase at a ballpark.

All the same, there's no doubt that it's all about the money, and I am realistic enough to realize that as long as Bud Selig or anyone who thinks like an owner is commissioner there is no going back from where we are now. In that light, the onus is entirely on baseball management to do as much as possible to assure that competitive inequities in the context of inter-league play are minimized as much as possible. Sadly, I doubt that very many of the owners ever even give it a thought, possibly none.

Inter-League Play, Does it Effect League Leaders?

2004-06-16T11:08:00.000-07:00
*** The following excerpt is taken from a SABR, Society for American Baseball Research, Internet discussion group and discusses the impact of Inter-League play on season leader races. Specifically, this piece deals with the Triple Crown categories of AVG.,HR and RBI for offense, and W, K an ERA for pitchers, and how the winning totals may have been influenced by Inter-League competition. This article is reproduced with permission of its author, James Vail, and we would like to thank him for allowing us to do so.

Inter-League Play and Triple-Crown Stats
by
James Vail

Although Albert Pujols and Bill Mueller are officially credited as the 2003 batting champions, it turns out that inter-league play was decisive in both incidents of victory. Pujols won the NL title at .359, with Colorado's Todd Helton second at .358. Pujols' full-season stats were 212 hits in 591 AB, but he hit .397 in inter-league play (31 for 78), leaving him with a .353 average against NL-only competition (181 for 513). Helton's season stats were 209 for 583, but his inter-league ledger (18 for 51) produced a .353 mark, makng his NL-only figure .359 (191 for 532), a point higher than Pujols' league-only performance.

Mueller led the AL for the full 2003 season, hitting .326 compared to teammate Manny Ramirez's .325 and Yankee Derek Jeter's .324. Mueller was 18-for-65 (.277) in inter-league play, while Ramirez went 19-for-61(.311) and Jeter 21-for-77 (.273). As a result, Mueller (153-for-459) and Jeter (135-for-405) were actually tied in AL-only competition at .333, while Ramirez trailed both at .327 (166-for-508).

Neither instance would be that big of a deal if they were isolated incidents. But I went back --- using the data available at Retrosheet.com--- and checked each of the six triple-crown statistical races (batting average, home runs and RBI for hitters, ERA, games won and strikeouts for pitchers) for the years 1998-2003, and, as fate has had it, 18 of the 72 cases involved (25 percent) have been determined by inter-league performance. In three of the instances --- the 2003 AL batting race noted above, plus the 1998 leaderships in games won for both leagues --- factoring out inter-league performance created ties for league-only leadership which do not exist in the official records (or, in one case, a different tie than the one currently recognized). The other 15 incidents all produced changes in circuit leadership for the triple-crown stat involved.

In addition to the two cases described above, a full list of these incidents includes the following, given chronologically:

1998 NL ERA: Greg Maddux was the official NL leader at 2.22, with Kevin Brown second at 2.38. But Maddux posted a 0.82 ERA in four inter-league contests, and his actual average against NL-only competition was 2.44. Brown had a 4.74 ERA in three inter-league games, while his mark against senior circuit opponents only was just 2.19. So Brown actually led against league-only opposition.

1998 NL GAMES WON: Tom Glavine won 20 contests for the season, compared to 19 for runner-up Kevin Tapani. Glavine's record in inter-league play was 2-0, with one no-decision, giving him 18 wins against NL opponents. Tapani pitched in three inter-league contests, winning one, losing another, with a no-decision in the third. So his also won 18 games against senior-circuit opponents, producing an NL-only tie.

1998 AL GAMES WON: Rick Helling, David Cone and Roger Clemens each won 20 contests for the season. But Cone won three games in inter-league play, giving him only 17 wins against AL clubs. Helling and Clemens both won just twice in inter-league competition, so their AL-only victory totals were 18 apiece.

1999 NL HOME RUNS: Mark McGwire topped the circuit with 65 homers, followed closely by Sammy Sosa at 63. McGwire's season total included six smacked in inter-league play, while Sosa had only two against AL opposition. So Sammy's NL-only total was actually 61, while McGwire's was just 59.

1999 NL ERA: Randy Johnson led the league with 2.48, with Kevin Millwood second at 2.68. But Johnson posted a 0.84 ERA in three inter-league games, and Millwod was at 4.50 in his three starts against American League teams. Millwood's NL-only ERA was 2.51, while Johnson's was 2.70.

1999 NL GAMES WON: Mike Hampton topped the NL with 22 wins, while Jose Lima won 21 for the season. Hampton's total included four inter-league victories, but Lima's only two. So Lima won 19 games against NL opponents, Hampton just 18.

2000 NL HOME RUNS: Sosa had 50 dingers for the season, runner-up Barry Bonds had 49. But Sosa had nine inter-league homers, while Bonds had seven. So Bonds actually had 42 in NL-only play, while Sosa had 41.

2000 AL GAMES WON: Officially, David Wells and Tim Hudson tied for the league leadership with 20 wins apiece. But two of Wells victories came in inter-league play, while Hudson won all his games against American League competition.

2001 NL RBI: Sosa had 160 RBI for the season, Todd Helton 146. Sosa had 20 ribbies in inter-league play, Helton just five. So Helton had 141 against NL-only competition, Sosa 140.

2001 NL GAMES WON: Curt Schilling and Matt Morris both had 22 wins for the year. But Schilling's ledger included two inter-league victories, while Morris had just one. So Morris won 21 against NL clubs, Schilling 20.

2001 AL ERA: Freddy Garcia posted a season ERA of 3.05, with runner-up Mike Mussina at 3.15. Garcia's four inter-league starts equated to1.78, while Mussina's five games against NL opponents produced a mark of 3.69. That left Mussina at 3.06 against AL-only opponents, and Garcia at 3.24.

2001 AL GAMES WON: Mark Mulder won 21 games for the season, with Jamie Moyer and Roger Clemens tied for second at 20 apiece. Mulder won four inter-league decisions, and Clemens won one. But all of Moyer's victories came against AL opposition, so his 20 league-only wins were better than Clemens' 19 and Mulder's 17.

2001 AL STRIKEOUTS: Hideo Nomo was the season leader at 220, with Mike Mussina second at 214 and Roger Clemens third with 213. Nomo and Mussina both had 22 inter-league strikeouts, and Clemens only 12. So Clemens led against AL-only competition with 201, while Nomo had 198 and Mussina 192.

2003 NL HOME RUNS: Jim Thome had 47 for the season, followed by Richie Sexson and Barry Bonds at 45 apiece. But Thome had six dingers in inter-league play, Bonds nine and Sexson just three. So the NL-only totals were Sexson 42, Thome 41 and Bonds 36.

2003 AL GAMES WON: Roy Halladay had 22 wins for the season, with Andy Pettitte, Jamie Moyer and Esteban Loaiza at 21 apiece. Halladay had three inter-league victories, Pettite and Moyer two each, and Loaiza just one. So Loaiza led with 20 wins against AL-only competition, while the other three pitchers all had 19.

2003 AL STRIKEOUTS: Loaiza had 207 Ks for the year, followed closely by Pedro Martinez at 206 and Halladay at 204. But Loaiza had 25 strikeouts in inter-league play, Halladay 26 and Martinez just 10. So Pedro topped the AL-only list with 196, followed by Loaiza with 182 and Halladay at 178. Apparently, in Loaiza's case, what inter-league play can take away, it can take away again in a different fashion.

Perhaps predictably, the most-affected statistic among the triple-crown categories was games won by pitchers (seven leadership changes among 12cases), where leadership is often determined by just one victory, and the least-affected was runs batted in (just one change in 12), where there is often a large gap between first and second place. Totals for the other triple-crown stats are: home runs and ERA, 3 of 12 each; batting average and Ks by pitchers, 2 of 12 apiece. Clearly, I have not had time to do a more thorough study (and don't plan one at the moment), but if inter-league play can alter 25 percent of triple-crown leaderships, it can easily change the outcomes of other statistical titles at an even higher rate, especially those (like hits, doubles, triples, saves, et al) in which the difference between first and second place is often small.

Beyond whatever "injustices" may or may not be perceived in all of the above, the rate at which inter-league play affects these outcomes is also important because league leaderships --- particularly those for triple-crown stats --- are a key determining factor in who wins the MVP and Cy Young trophies. Of the 168 MVPs awarded through 2003, 57 of them went to RBI leaders (33.9 percent), 41 to home run champs (24.4 percent)
and 31 to batting title winners (18.5 percent). Of the 86 Cy Young awards to date, 56 (65.1 percent) went to league leaders in games won, 29 (33.7 percent) to ERA champs, and 25 (29.1 percent) to strikeout leaders.

None of the 18 incidents cited above can be said to have seriously altered the outcome of MVP voting (although Bonds finished second to teammate Jeff Kent in a relatively close 2000 NL voting, and might have fared better had he been recognized as the circuit's home run champ --- not that he needed yet another trophy). In contrast, four of the dozen Cy Young awards given since 1998 were certainly influenced by the arguably "false" outcomes produced by inter-league results. Tom Glavine and Roger Clemens won the 1998 trophies, Randy Johnson won the NL version in 1999 and Roy Halladay won the AL award last season.

I'm not about to suggest that separate MVPs and CYAs should be given on the basis of league-only and full-season performance, as that would be absolutely stupid and baseball already has more than its share of stupidity in play at the moment. But there are obvious team-by-team variations in the relative quality of inter-league opponents which affect competitive balance as a whole, and I do think that the degree to which inter-league performance may --- perhaps unjustifiably --- alter perceptions about who is deserving of those trophies is very relevant to any discussion about the relative value and/or facility of inter-league play as a whole.

HR % (Best ALL TIME, and 2003-1994 )

2004-06-15T15:34:00.000-07:00
SEE STORY
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Ray_HRRates.htm

HR% illustrates the amount of at bats that result in a homerun.

EXAMPLE: Bonds in 2003 had 390 AB and 45 HR.
45/390= 11.54
OR
11.54% of all of Bonds at bats in 2003 resulted in a HR.

* These totals are based on those hitters who accumulated 502 plate appearances, or enough to qualify for the batting crown.

BEST SEASON'S ALL TIME

YEAR HR%
1 Barry Bonds 2001 15.34
2 Mark McGwire 1998 13.75
3 Mark McGwire 1999 12.48
4 Mark McGwire 1996 12.29
5 Babe Ruth 1920 11.79
6 Barry Bonds 2003 11.54
7 Barry Bonds 2002 11.41
8 Babe Ruth 1927 11.11
9 Sammy Sosa 2001 11.09
10 Babe Ruth 1921 10.93
11 Jim Thome 2002 10.83
12 Mark McGwire 1997 10.74
13 Mickey Mantle 1961 10.51
14 Hank Greenberg 1938 10.43
15 Roger Maris 1961 10.34
16 Sammy Sosa 1998 10.26
17 Barry Bonds 2000 10.21
18 Sammy Sosa 1999 10.08
19 Babe Ruth 1928 10.07
20 Jimmie Foxx 1932 9.91
21 Ralph Kiner 1949 9.84
22 Mickey Mantle 1956 9.76
23 Hack Wilson 1930 9.57
24 Frank Thomas 1994 9.52
T25 Hank Aaron 1971 9.49
T25 Babe Ruth 1926 9.49

SEASON-2003

HR%
1 Barry Bonds 11.54
2 Jim Edmonds 8.72
3 Jim Thome 8.13
4 Alex Rodriguez 7.74
5 Sammy Sosa 7.74
6 Frank Thomas 7.69
7 Jason Giambi 7.66
8 Richie Sexson 7.43
9 Carlos Delgado 7.37
10 Albert Pujols 7.28
11 David Ortiz 6.92
12 Rafael Palmeiro 6.77
13 Gary Sheffield 6.77
14 Jeromy Burnitz 6.68
15 Mike Lowell 6.50
16 Manny Ramirez 6.50
17 Jeff Bagwell 6.45
18 Jose Guillen 6.39
19 Trot Nixon 6.35
20 Jorge Posada 6.24
21 Andruw Jones 6.05
22 Preston Wilson 6.00
23 Derrek Lee 5.75
24 Geoff Jenkins 5.75
25 Todd Helton 5.66

SEASON-2002

HR%
1 Barry Bonds 11.41
2 Jim Thome 10.83
3 Alex Rodriguez 9.13
4 Sammy Sosa 8.81
5 Rafael Palmeiro 7.88
6 Brian Giles 7.65
7 Manny Ramirez 7.57
8 Jason Giambi 7.32
9 Lance Berkman 7.27
10 Shawn Green 7.22
11 Mike Piazza 6.90
12 Carlos Delgado 6.53
13 Magglio Ordonez 6.44
14 Vladimir Guerrero 6.35
15 Pat Burrell 6.31
16 Andruw Jones 6.25
17 Ellis Burks 6.18
18 Mark Bellhorn 6.07
19 Jeff Kent 5.94
20 Jim Edmonds 5.88
21 Eric Chavez 5.81
22 Robin Ventura 5.81
23 Albert Pujols 5.76
24 Fred McGriff 5.74
25 Jay Gibbons 5.71

SEASON-2001

HR%
1 Barry Bonds 15.34
2 Sammy Sosa 11.09
3 Luis Gonzalez 9.36
4 Jim Thome 9.32
5 Todd Helton 8.35
6 Alex Rodriguez 8.23
7 Shawn Green 7.92
8 Rafael Palmeiro 7.83
9 Manny Ramirez 7.75
10 Larry Walker 7.65
11 Richie Sexson 7.53
12 Phil Nevin 7.51
13 Jason Giambi 7.31
14 Mike Piazza 7.16
15 Gary Sheffield 6.99
16 Troy Glaus 6.97
17 Carlos Delgado 6.79
18 Chipper Jones 6.64
19 Juan Gonzalez 6.58
20 Jeff Bagwell 6.50
21 Brian Giles 6.42
22 Jose Valentin 6.39
23 Ellis Burks 6.38
24 Albert Pujols 6.27
25 Jeromy Burnitz 6.05

SEASON-2000

HR%
1 Barry Bonds 10.21
2 Manny Ramirez 8.66
3 Gary Sheffield 8.58
4 Jason Giambi 8.43
5 Troy Glaus 8.35
6 Sammy Sosa 8.28
7 Jim Edmonds 8.00
8 Jeff Bagwell 7.97
9 Richard Hidalgo 7.89
10 Mike Piazza 7.88
11 David Justice 7.82
12 Vladimir Guerrero 7.71
13 Ken Griffey Jr. 7.69
14 Alex Rodriguez 7.40
15 Frank Thomas 7.39
16 Todd Helton 7.24
17 Carlos Delgado 7.21
18 Rafael Palmeiro 6.90
19 Carl Everett 6.85
20 Edgar Martinez 6.65
21 Jim Thome 6.64
22 Geoff Jenkins 6.64
23 Brad Fullmer 6.64
24 Tony Batista 6.61
25 Moises Alou 6.61

SEASON-1999

HR%
1 Mark McGwire 12.48
2 Sammy Sosa 10.08
3 Larry Walker 8.45
4 Manny Ramirez 8.43
5 Alex Rodriguez 8.37
6 Rafael Palmeiro 8.32
7 Greg Vaughn 8.18
8 Chipper Jones 7.94
9 Ken Griffey Jr. 7.92
10 Jose Canseco 7.91
11 Carlos Delgado 7.68
12 John Jaha 7.66
13 Mike Piazza 7.49
14 Brian Giles 7.49
15 Jeff Bagwell 7.47
16 Matt Stairs 7.16
17 Jeromy Burnitz 7.07
18 Juan Gonzalez 6.94
19 Vladimir Guerrero 6.89
20 Shawn Green 6.84
21 Dean Palmer 6.79
22 Jim Thome 6.68
23 Richie Sexson 6.47
24 Jay Bell 6.45
25 Fernando Tatis 6.33

SEASON-1998

HR%
1 Mark McGwire 13.75
2 Sammy Sosa 10.26
3 Ken Griffey Jr. 8.85
4 Greg Vaughn 8.73
5 Albert Belle 8.05
6 Andres Galarraga 7.93
7 Jose Canseco 7.89
8 Manny Ramirez 7.88
9 Juan Gonzalez 7.43
10 Carlos Delgado 7.17
11 Vinny Castilla 7.13
12 Javier Lopez 6.95
13 Rafael Palmeiro 6.95
14 Jim Thome 6.82
15 Barry Bonds 6.70
16 Mo Vaughn 6.57
17 Moises Alou 6.51
18 Ken Caminiti 6.42
19 Jeff Bagwell 6.30
20 Jeromy Burnitz 6.24
21 Eric Davis 6.19
22 Alex Rodriguez 6.12
23 Vladimir Guerrero 6.10
24 Dean Palmer 5.94
25 Jeff Kent 5.89

SEASON-1997

HR%
1 Mark McGwire 10.74
2 Ken Griffey Jr. 9.21
3 Larry Walker 8.63
4 Jim Thome 8.06
5 Juan Gonzalez 7.88
6 Jeff Bagwell 7.60
7 Barry Bonds 7.52
T8 Jay Buhner 7.41
T8 Tino Martinez 7.41
T10 Todd Hundley 7.19
T10 Mike Piazza 7.19
12 Andres Galarraga 6.83
13 Paul Sorrento 6.78
T14 David Justice 6.67
T14 Ray Lankford 6.67
16 Mo Vaughn 6.64
17 Frank Thomas 6.60
18 Vinny Castilla 6.54
19 Chili Davis 6.29
20 Rafael Palmeiro 6.19
21 Carlos Delgado 5.78
22 Tim Salmon 5.67
23 Sammy Sosa 5.61
24 Tony Clark 5.52
25 Jeromy Burnitz 5.47

SEASON- 1996

HR%
1 Mark McGwire 12.29
2 Ken Griffey Jr. 8.99
3 Juan Gonzalez 8.69
4 Brady Anderson 8.64
5 Barry Bonds 8.12
6 Gary Sheffield 8.09
7 Sammy Sosa 8.03
8 Albert Belle 7.97
9 Greg Vaughn 7.95
10 Jay Buhner 7.80
11 Todd Hundley 7.59
12 Frank Thomas 7.59
13 Jim Thome 7.52
14 Andres Galarraga 7.51
15 Ken Caminiti 7.33
16 Mo Vaughn 6.93
17 Terry Steinbach 6.81
18 Henry Rodriguez 6.77
19 Cecil Fielder 6.60
20 Mike Piazza 6.58
21 Dean Palmer 6.53
22 Ellis Burks 6.53
23 Ryan Klesko 6.44
24 Barry Larkin 6.38
25 Vinny Castilla 6.36

SEASON-1995

HR%
1 Albert Belle 9.16
2 Jay Buhner 8.51
3 Frank Thomas 8.11
4 Mickey Tettleton 7.46
5 Larry Walker 7.29
6 Mo Vaughn 7.09
7 Rafael Palmeiro 7.04
8 Dante Bichette 6.91
9 Gary Gaetti 6.81
10 Barry Bonds 6.52
11 Manny Ramirez 6.40
12 Sammy Sosa 6.38
13 Tim Salmon 6.33
14 Cecil Fielder 6.28
15 Vinny Castilla 6.07
16 Tino Martinez 5.97
17 Jim Edmonds 5.91
18 Eric Karros 5.81
19 Reggie Sanders 5.79
20 Edgar Martinez 5.68
21 Andres Galarraga 5.60
22 Jim Thome 5.53
23 Robin Ventura 5.28
24 John Valentin 5.19
T25 Ray Lankford 5.18
T25 Jeff Conine 5.18

SEASON-1994
*Based 357 PA
(derived from 3.1 PA times 115 games. Because of the strike,
a full season was not played in 1994)

HR%
1 Jeff Bagwell 9.75
2 Kevin Mitchell 9.68
3 Matt Williams 9.66
4 Frank Thomas 9.52
5 Barry Bonds 9.46
6 Ken Griffey Jr. 9.24
7 Albert Belle 8.74
8 Gary Sheffield 8.39
9 Fred McGriff 8.02
10 Bob Hamelin 7.69
11 Andres Galarraga 7.43
12 Jose Canseco 7.23
13 Kirk Gibson 6.97
14 Chili Davis 6.63
15 Mo Vaughn 6.60
16 Cecil Fielder 6.59
17 Jim Thome 6.23
18 Joe Carter 6.21
19 Tim Salmon 6.17
20 Tino Martinez 6.08
21 Mike Piazza 5.93
22 Sammy Sosa 5.87
23 Jay Buhner 5.87
24 Chris Hoiles 5.72
25 Paul O'Neill 5.71

The History of the SAVE

2004-06-14T16:49:00.000-07:00
http://www.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_perspectives.
jsp?ymd=20030916&content_id=529112&vkey=perspectives&fext
=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Baseball Perspectives
by
Jerome Holtzman

How the Save Formula Began
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Alan Schwarz of Baseball America, a very capable writer, called the other day. He is doing a book on baseball statistics and asked about the pitching save for relief pitchers. The save is the first new major stat since runs batted in was adopted in 1920.

Schwarz wanted to know some of the history and specifically if I invented the save. So I told him the story. I didn't invent it. What I did was create the first formula for the save. The term "save" had been in use as far back as 1952, five years before I started covering baseball.

Three club executives, two of them statisticians, were the pioneers: Jim Toomey of the Cardinals, Alan Roth of the Dodgers and Irv Kaze of the Pirates. They recorded saves but there was only one criterion. A reliever who finished a winning game but was not credited with the victory was given a save. The final score didn't matter. It could be 12-1 or 2-1.

They listed their tabulations on the team's daily statistical sheets but it was largely ignored, like games finished. I don't recall ever seeing a save mentioned in a game story.

I became involved in May 1960. I was in St. Louis with the Cubs and wrote the rule while I was on the team bus (for a night game) while it was parked outside the Chase Hotel. Lou Boudreau, then a Cub announcer, was in the seat behind me. I showed it to him for his approval. He said it was a good idea.

At that time the Cubs had a strong righty-lefty bullpen tandem of Don Elston and Bill Henry. They were constantly protecting leads for the starting pitchers but went unnoticed outside of Chicago. I did it with them in mind. I thought they should get more credit.

The year before, in 1959, Elroy Face of the Pirates was the rage. Face was 18-1 in relief. It was and still is generally acknowledged as the greatest season for anyone coming out of the bullpen. The 18 victories in relief is still the Major League record.

I was suspicious and checked the scorebook of a Pittsburgh beat writer and discovered that 10 of Face's wins came after he had given up the tying or lead run. In effect, they were blown saves. The Pirates had a strong hitting team, known as the Pittsburgh Lumber Co., and took Face off the hook with late-inning rallies. Because he was the pitcher of record he got the win. There is no other way a reliever can win 18 games.

The year before, in 1958, Face had a better year. He had a 5-2 won-loss record. But if my system had been in effect, he would have had 26 saves, which probably would have led the league. In those days the only important stat for a reliever was his earned-run average, and even that wasn't an accurate measure of his effectiveness because, then as now, many of the runs scored against him are charged to the previous pitcher. Generally, a relievers' ERA should be 1.00 lower than a starter.

I was then a correspondent for The Sporting News and wrote a letter to J.G. Taylor Spink, its editor and publisher, and enclosed my saves formula. Spink jumped on it. He gave me a $100 or a $200 bonus. I don't remember which but I do recall him telling me I should be sure to call him if I had any other ideas. I have been barren ever since.

In the original formula there were four basic requirements. Foremost, the reliever had to face the tying run. It went into effect in 1960. The next year the rule was relaxed; the tying run had to be on deck. It has been modified several times since but is essentially the same.

The first winners were Lindy McDaniel of the Cardinals in the National League and Mike Fornieles of the Red Sox in the American.

One point was given for a save and one point for a win in relief. It was a mistake. Two points should have been given for a save, which I've always believed is twice as good as a victory. McDaniel finished with 33 points, 21 saves and 12 wins. Fornieles had 19 points, nine saves and 10 wins.

The first public mention of my formula was made in the July 27, 1960 issue of The Sporting News. The Sporting News announced it had adopted the save as its invention and thereafter would award annual Fireman trophies to the top relievers in each league.

The reaction was positive. There were no naysayers. Bill Veeck, then the president of the White Sox, said, "The relief pitchers have too long been ignored. They should be given more statistical credit." Looking ahead, Veeck prophesized the save would upgrade the salary of relief pitchers because of the "attendant promotion and publicity."

At the time I was aware it was an important contribution but I never realized the save, as Veeck predicted, would have much of an impact, especially on salaries. It never occurred to me. Today, more than 40 years later, relievers are among baseball's superstars. I haven't kept count but I imagine at least a dozen closers have annual earnings in excess of $5 million.

For the next nine years, from 1960 through 1968, I wrote a brief weekly story charting the league leaders. I was appointed the chairman of a committee formed by the Baseball Writers Association for the purpose of convincing the Scoring Rules Committee to recognize the save as an official stat. Recognition came in 1969. I then bowed out and have not been involved since.

It is now almost impossible to win without a strong bullpen. With each passing season, relievers have grown in importance. On a traditional 10-man pitching staff, usually half are in the bullpen. There are now long men, middle men, setup men and closers. As Whitey Herzog, who managed championship teams in St. Louis and Kansas City, observed, "Give me a good bullpen and I'll be a good manager. Give me a great bullpen and I'll be a great manager."

Jerome Holtzman is the official historian for Major League Baseball. In 1993 he became the only non-relief pitcher to receive the Rolaids Career Achievement Award. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

Radio Appearance Wrap Up

2004-06-13T11:14:00.000-07:00
Last night, well actually this morning, ended up being a great success. Thanks to those of you who braved the late night to listen, we all greatly appreciate it. If you still would like to send in a donation, please do so to the following address:

Office of Development
ATT: Sharon Hanna
Bowling Green State University
Bowling Green, OH, 43403
*On the Memo please also include: Carol Morris Scholarship Fund, 30-000812

We’ll be updating WILDPITCH on a semi- daily basis, so don’t forget to check back in for facts, stats an opinions.

Ray

PS There should be an archive up for your listening if you missed it at:
http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/archives/index.htm
under LIFE'S A PITCH MARATHON (My interview begins around the 3:30 mark)

1984-2003 Cy Young...SWIP

2004-06-11T10:47:00.000-07:00
SEE STORY
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_WhyNotSWIP.htm

SWIP= K - BB / IP

SWIP YEAR
1.42 2003 Gagne
1.29 1999 Pedro
1.21 1995 RJ
1.21 2001 RJ
1.16 2000 Pedro
1.09 2000 RJ
1.08 1999 RJ
1.03 1992 ECK
1.01 2002 RJ
0.97 1997 Pedro
0.87 1996 Smoltz
0.85 1986 Scott
0.85 1997 Clemens
0.75 1995 Maddux
0.72 1985 Gooden
0.69 1998 Clemens
0.66 1989 M.Davis
0.65 1991 Clemens
0.65 2003 Halladay
0.64 2001 Clemens
0.64 1986 Clemens
0.62 1994 Maddux
0.61 1987 Clemens
0.57 1989 Sabrhagen
0.54 1988 Viola
0.54 1993 Maddux
0.54 1984 W.Herndez
0.52 1984 Sutcliffe
0.52 1987 Bedrosian
0.51 1985 Sabrhagen
0.50 1991 Glavine
0.48 1992 Maddux
0.45 1994 Cone
0.45 2002 Zito
0.39 1988 Hershiser
0.36 1998 Glavine
0.35 1993 McDowell
0.32 1990 Drabek
0.31 1996 Hentgen
0.21 1990 Welch

SWIP_2001-2003 Totals

2004-06-09T15:47:00.001-07:00
SWIP...Calculated by: Strikeouts - Walks / IP

3 YEAR 2001-2003
(Minimum 150 IP)
AVERAGE SWIP 0.36
AVERAGE WHIP 1.38

*CAPS = relief pitcher
(ALL figures are rounded off to two decimal points)

SWIP
1.06 R.Johnson
1.02 Schilling
0.99 Pedro
0.95 GAGNE
0.93 Prior
0.93 WAGNER
0.88 GORDON
0.88 RHODES
0.88 DOTEL
0.85 SMOLTZ
0.80 URBINA
0.78 RIVERA
0.76 FARNSWORTH
0.76 MARTE
0.75 EMBREE
0.74 PERCIVAL
0.73 SASAKI
0.73 REMLINGER
0.72 Santana
0.71 GUARDADO
0.70 Redman
0.70 KIM
0.70 Mussina
0.70 Vazquez
0.70 NELSON
0.69 IZZY
0.69 Oswalt
0.69 Wood
0.68 BOROWSKI
0.67 Schmidt
0.67 RISKE
0.66 Clemens
0.65 Beckett
0.64 WITASICK
0.63 FOULKE
0.63 RINCON
0.59 Brown
0.58 Pettitte
0.58 GROOM
0.58 VIZCAINO
0.58 Webb
0.57 Halladay
0.56 STEWART
0.54 BRADFORD
0.54 Wolf
0.54 SHUEY
0.53 Morris
0.53 SPEIER
0.53 BENITEZ
0.52 FROD SF
0.51 TIMLIN
0.51 STRCKLAND
0.50 HAWKINS
0.50 MOTA
0.49 Lilly
0.49 OdalisPerez
0.48 Miller
0.48 Wakefield
0.48 Maddux
0.48 Loaiza
0.47 Milton
0.47 REED
0.47 Reed
0.47 Mulder
0.47 Clement
0.47 Eaton
0.46 Nomo
0.46 Millwood
0.46 VERES
0.45 W.Williams
0.44 Sheets
0.44 Radke
0.44 Burkett
0.43 QUANTRIL
0.43 WHITE
0.43 Garcia
0.43 Leiter
0.42 Zito
0.42 Colon
0.42 Penny
0.42 BAEZ
0.42 Hudson
0.42 MENDOZA
0.41 LITENBERG
0.41 D.Wells
0.40 CORMIER
0.40 WORRELL
0.40 Burnett
0.40 Pineiro
0.39 Sheilds
0.39 STANTON
0.39 Thompson
0.39 Armas
0.38 Lawrence
0.37 Person
0.37 Appier
0.37 Lidle
0.37 KING
0.37 Lohse
0.37 WEATHERS
0.37 Towers
0.36 NUNEZ
0.36 Padilla
0.36 Sabathia
0.36 Jarvis
0.36 Moyer
0.36 Washburn
0.34 CARRARA
0.33 Ponson
0.33 Lowe
0.32 Trachsel
0.32 LOOPER
0.30 Beurhle
0.30 Batista
0.29 R.Franklin
0.27 BROWER
0.26 RussOrtiz
0.24 Anderson
0.24 Graves
0.24 WEBER
0.23 KLINE
0.23 Hentgen
0.22 HASEGAWA
0.18 Mays

LINKS: Web Addresses for Stories

2004-06-09T11:06:00.000-07:00
HITTTING STORIES

http://www.athomeplate.com/alltimefantasy.shtml

THE BEST FANTASY SEASON OF THE PAST 20 YEARS.

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Ray_HRRates.htm

HOW OFTEN DO YOUR FAVORITE PLAYERS HIT HOMERS?

http://www.athomeplate.com/coorsfield1.shtml

HOW DOES COORS FIELD COMPARE TO ARLINGTON?

http://athomeplate.com/coorsfield2.shtml

HOW WILL THE HOME PARK CHANGE EFFECT AROD AND SORIANO.

http://www.athomeplate.com/theothergreatone.shtml

BABE RUTH V. BARRY BONDS...THE BEST EVER?

http://www.athomeplate.com/griffey.shtml

THE FORGOTTEN SUPERSTAR...KEN GRIFFEY JR.

http://www.athomeplate.com/bondsibb.shtml
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Flowers_BondsIBBHistory.htm

THE HISTORY OF THE IBB, AND THE PLIGHT OF BARRY BONDS.

PITCHING STORIES

http://www.athomeplate.com/jschmidt.shtml

THE BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL IS JASON SCHMIDT

http://athomeplate.com/alltimefanpitchers.shtml

THE BEST FANTASY SEASONS OF THE PAST 20 YEARS BY PITCHERS.

http://www.athomeplate.com/swip.shtml
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_SWIPorWHIP.htm

SWIP vs. WHIP, a reveiw of a "new" stat to measure a pitchers effectiveness. SWIP takes into account a pitchers strikeouts and walks to derive a formula that expressess his individual effectiveness.

http://www.athomeplate.com/websavesteam.shtml

DO SAVES COME FROM TEAMS WITH WINNING RECORDS?

href="http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_RoleOfCloser.htm">http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_RoleOfCloser.htm

ERIC GAGNE AND THE HISTORY OF THE RELIEF PICTHER.

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_QualityStarts.htm

QUALITY STARTS...ARE THEY REALLY QUALITY?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Ray_NolanRyanRobbed.htm

PICTHERS WINNING % VERSUS THEIR TEAMS LACK OF SUCCESS.

FANTASY BASEBALL STORIES

http://rototimes.com/index.php?sport=bsball&type=misc&name=F20040701165836

CARLOS BELTRAN'S TRADE TO HOUSTON.

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_BuySell2.htm
WHO TO BUY IN FANTASY BASEBALL JUNE 27, 2004

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_BuySell.htm
WHO TO SELL JUNE 27, 2004

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_PickingNames2.htm
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_PickingNames.htm
IS PICKING THE "NAME" ALWAYS THE BEST MOVE?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Rookie%20Hype.htm
ROOKIE HYPE, SHOULD YOU BITE?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_27yrMVP.htm 27

IS 27 REALLY THE MAGIC AGE FOR PLAYERS?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_StealValue.htm

SHOULD WE COUNT SB DIFFERENTELY?

http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_KnowingRules.htm
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_Guest_KnowingRules2.htm
KNOWING THE VALUE OF STATS AND HOW THEY EFFECT YOUR TEAM PART I Offense,
PART II Pitching).

Gagne and the Closer

2004-06-09T10:54:00.000-07:00
Eric Gagne and the Role of the Closer
by
Ray Flowers
http://www.drafthelp.com/MLB_RoleOfCloser.htm

Lets look at the following group of players…can you pick out Eric Gagne’s CY Young Season of 2003?

G IP H BB K W L ER ERA
74 77.1 69 15 75 9 3 16 1.86
78 79 51 33 83 12 4 26 2.96
77 82.1 37 20 137 2 3 11 1.20
72 86.2 57 20 88 9 1 20 2.08
76 105 78 26 99 6 3 23 1.97

We would hazard the guess that if one were to ignore the K column, or the ERA column, one would have a difficult time pointing out Gagne’s season (and look at the Earned Run column…a 5 or 9 run difference…are those seasons really that different?). Those on the list are, in order: LaTroy Hawkins, Nathan, GAGNE, Keith Foulke, and Gagne’s teammate Guillermo Mota. Granted, Gagne was fantastic in his role of closer in 2003, but was Gagne’s season really that valuable in the context of the others? The question basically becomes one of what is the value of a closer? To answer that question we must look at it in two ways, (PART ONE) for the fantasy player; and (PART TWO) for the professional team.

PART ONE

In fantasy baseball the steal and the save are king. No one can argue with that logic because of the “scarcity” of the stat. So, lets look at the save totals for the five players listed above: Hawkins 0, Nathan 0, Gagne 55, Foulke 43, Mota 1 (look at that again…Gagne has a total of 55 but the Big Four would have totaled 44…a difference of only 11).

Is too much spent too early in most drafts on closers? The answer is of course YES. For what it would have cost you to purchase Gagne last year, lets be kind and say $35…for that same $35 you could most assuredly purchased Nathan, Hawkins, Mota AND Foulke (since he was coming off a down year with the White Sox). So would your pitching staff have benefited more from Gagne’s 2 wins and 55 saves -or- from the 36 Wins AND 44 Saves that foursome of RP’s would have provided. Think about that…36 Wins…that’s like having Mark Prior and Greg Maddux on your staff and still ending up 2 wins short!

What about the “other” stats you say?

K’s- Gagne: 137 Big Four: 345
Whip- Gagne: 0.69 Big Four: 1.00
ERA- Gagne: 1.20 Big Four: 2.20

The question then becomes one of innings. Yes, Gagne would have only taken up 82 innings, or less than 7% of the standard total in most leagues (assuming that total to be 1250 Innings). On the other hand our Big Four would have totaled 348 innings or roughly 28% of your teams innings…is the trade worth it? In my opinion the answer is an unqualified YES.

Earlier we mentioned Prior and Maddux…what were their combined stats from last year?
34-17, 369 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.14 Whip in 429.2 innings.

Let’s Compare:
Gagne: 2-3, 137, 1.20, 0.69 in 82.1 innings.
Big Four: 36- 11, 345, 2.20, 1.00 in 348 innings

(And remember, there is pretty much no way you would have been able to buy Prior AND Maddux for our baseline total of $35 in most leagues last year)

So the Big Four outperform Prior and Maddux and you would have SAVED 81 innings!

On the other hand the Big Four vs. Gagne would yield you the following totals:
Sure your ERA/Whip would be higher (negligibly because of the gross total of innings), and you would end up 11 saves short. But is that trade really worth it? 34 more wins and 208 more K’s from the Big Four more than makes up for a mere 11 saves doesn’t it? I mean, an ERA of 2.20 and a whip of 1.00 in 348 innings…that’s like having Pedro Martinez AND Curt Schilling last year! (In fact there total would have been an ERA of 2.57 and a whip of 1.04 which is actually worse than the Big Four!… plus they would have set you back around $65 in most leagues last year).

After all of the above lets consider one last point. The following pitchers could all have been had last year for under $5: F. Cordero, S. Hasegawa, L. Carter, M. MacDougal, R. Biddle, J. Borowski, D. Kolb and R. Beck. What do they all have in common? The all saved at least 15 games, and for mere peanuts of ones budget.

So was Gagne’s save total of 55 really worth $35? I think we have laid out a persuasive argument that it wasn’t. Is Gagne more of a “sure bet” than the Big Four, or any group of RP’s for that matter in the upcoming year? Of course he is. But why not take the chance by choosing a “lesser” closer (perhaps Joe Borowski, Matt Mantei or Aquilino Lopez) and a group of steady but underappreciated middle relievers (Francisco Rodriguez, Paul Quantrill, Felix Rodriguez, Matt Herges, Tom Gordon, Scott Williamson, Damaso Marte or Brendan Donnelly for example)? Now I’m not saying forsake the save column and go with a bunch of middle relievers, just be smart about it and keep your eye out for the “lesser name” closers out there… its not only the “big names” that produce. Think about it on draft day, an extra 30 Wins and 200 K’s would be like adding Cy Young himself to your team!

PART TWO

Three outs…

The closer of today is responsible, in a majority of cases, for three outs. Only rarely do we see a closer stretched beyond that magic three outs (an example of this is Mariano Rivera who routinely pitches 2 innings in the playoffs for the Yankess). But are the last three outs really that important?

Would you rather have Jason Schmidt or Eric Gagne if you were the owner of a major league team in 2003? Lets compare.

G IP H BB K W L ER ERA WHIP
Gagne 77 82.1 37 20 137 2 3 11 1.20 0.69

Schmidt 29 07.1 152 46 208 17 5 54 2.34 0.95

Your first reaction is probably to say you can’t compare the two; well let’s try anyway. We can easily see that Gagne’s K rate was much higher than Schmidt (15 to 9 per 9 innings) and we can also see that Gagne’s ERA is almost half of Schmidt’s. The real question is which pitcher is more valuable to their team? Lets look at this question another way.

Gagne pitched roughly 40% of the innings that Schmidt did in 2003. Would you rather have someone pitch an inning every other game, or a pitcher throw 7 innings every 5 days? Another way to look at it: If Gagne does his job, he gets 3 outs. When Schmidt is asked to do his, he get 21 outs. So who is more important to the success of the team? The guy who pitches 80% of the game or the guy who pitches 12%?

Three outs…

To state it another way, who depends on whom in this situation? If Schmidt pitches badly, if the defense fields poorly, if the offense fails to hit, Gagne’s job is irrelevant. It’s ONLY when the other factors of the team come together that Gagne fills an important role. Gagne can come in and get his three outs, but if Schmidt gives up 6 runs, and his offense is limited to 2 runs, Gagne appearance does nothing to enhance his teams chance of winning. Gagne merely gets his three outs and the score is 6 to 2 instead of something worse. Therefore, no pitching stat is as dependent on the rest of the team as the save category.

Why is it that Gagne was anointed with the Cy Young award last season by in effect being given credit for his teams ability to put in him a position to get three outs, when the exact opposite was true of Jason Schmidt? Schmidt wasn’t as highly valued in the Cy Young vote despite being the unquestioned ace of a team that won its division and 100 games. The general consensus as to why this was is that he “only” won 17 games (never mind the fact that Schmidt led the league in ERA, WHIP and batting avg. against). In essence, Schmidt was punished because of the failure of his teammates, whereas Gagne was rewarded for the success of his (or failure if you realize that one of the main reasons Gagne had so many opportunities to produce saves was because of the Dodgers pathetic offense which couldn’t generate any runs). Gagne was a dominant reliever no question, but if you remove the save category a teammate of Gagne’s had arguably as good a year.
G IP H ER BB K W L SV ERA WHIP
G. Mota 76 105 78 23 26 99 6 3 1 1.97 0.99

Now there isn’t a person on the planet who feels that Guillermo Mota deserved the Cy Young is there?

Even if we compare the reliever who began the current trend of closers, how much better was Gagne in 2003?

D. Eckersley 63 73.1 41 5 4 73 4 2 48 0.61 0.61
Eric Gagne 77 82.1 37 11 20 137 2 3 55 1.20 0.69
Eck was “only” 48 for 51 in saves that year, but weren’t his other stats as good or better than Gagne’s (except for K’s)? An ERA of half, and heck, even Gagne’s microscopic WHIP of 0.69 was beaten by Eck’s at 0.61!

And this brings us to the next issue, and that is the role of the relief pitcher. Below is a list of a few of the memorable relief seasons of the past 40 years:

G IP H BB K W L SV ERA WHIP
Goose Gossage 72 133 78 49 151 11 9 26 1.62 0.95
63 134.1 87 59 122 10 11 27 2.01 1.09

Dan Quisenberry 72 136.2 126 12 46 9 7 35 2.57 1.01
69 139 118 11 48 5 3 45 1.94 0.93

Bruce Sutter 62 107.1 69 23 129 7 3 31 1.34 0.86

John Hiller 65 125.1 89 39 124 10 5 38 1.44 1.02

Dick Radatz 66 132.1 94 51 162 15 6 25 1.97 1.09

Eric Gagne 77 82.1 37 20 137 2 3 55 1.20 0.61

A quick glance of the stats reveals that Gagne pitched in the most games of any reliever on this list. This leads to a rather astonishing second observation: despite pitching more games than anyone on this list, Gagne still pitched anywhere from 25 to 57 innings less than the above “greatest hits” relievers! In fact the average total of innings pitched for all the relievers on this list, excluding Gagne, yields an average of 129 innings in comparison to Gagne’s 82…a difference of over 45%! So if you had the choice between a pitcher who was just as effective over almost 50 more innings wouldn’t you take him?

Granted this isn’t fair to Gagne, the game is different today than it was in the past, and he shouldn’t be punished for that, but was he really that valuable last year because he didn’t blow a save? Did he actually deserve the Cy Young because he was perfect in save situations?

Three outs…

Let take this comparison to starting pitchers… which of the following 2003 seasons was more valuable?

G IP H ER BB K W L ERA WHIP
Halladay 36 266 253 96 32 204 22 7 3.25 1.07

Mulder 26 186.2 180 65 40 128 15 9 3.13 1.18

Based on innings pitched, Halladay to Mulder is roughly the same percentage as our “greatest hits” seasons to Gagne. The difference is much easier to see when we relate it to starting pitchers isn’t it?

So Gagne had a great season in 2003, and his “perfect” conversion rate of 100% in save situations might never broken. But as we have discussed, his saves were the result of his teammates putting him in a position to gain the one stat that makes his 2003 season “historic”…the save. And frankly, while the rest of his stats are truly great, they aren’t nearly as stupendous as his pundits would have you believe because ultimately his greatness depends entirely upon the position his teammates put him in.

Three outs…

The Origins of Baseball?

2004-06-09T10:51:00.000-07:00
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/
ap/20040511/ap_on_sp_ba_ne/bbo_baseball_s_birthplace_3

Mass. Town May Have Earliest Baseball Law
Tue May 11, 4:22 PM ET
By ADAM GORLICK, Associated Press Writer

PITTSFIELD, Mass. - Officials and historians in this western Massachusetts city released a 213-year-old document Tuesday that they believe is the earliest written reference to baseball.

The evidence comes in a 1791 bylaw that aims to protect the windows in Pittsfield's new meeting house by prohibiting anyone from playing baseball within 80 yards of the building. That bylaw would have been produced well before Abner Doubleday is said to have written the rules for the game in 1839.

Historian John Thorn was doing research on the origins of baseball when he found a reference to the bylaw in an 1869 book on Pittsfield's history.
He shared his find with former major leaguer and area resident Jim Bouton, who told city officials about the ordinance.

A librarian found the actual document in a vault at the Berkshire Athenaeum library. Its age was authenticated by researchers at the Williamstown Art Conservation Center.
"It's clear that not only was baseball played here in 1791, but it was rampant," Thorn said. "It was rampant enough to have an ordinance against it."

The long-accepted story of baseball's origins centers around Cooperstown, N.Y., where Doubleday is said to have come up with the rules for the modern game. That legend long legitimized the Baseball Hall of Fame's presence in Cooperstown, although later evidence pointed to the first real game being played in Hoboken, N.J., in 1846.

In 2001, a librarian at New York University came across two newspaper articles published on April 25, 1823, that show an organized form of a game called "base ball" was being played in Manhattan. The Pittsfield group hopes their find puts to rest the debate about the game's origins. "Pittsfield is baseball's Garden of Eden," Mayor James Ruberto said.

But experts say it may be impossible to say exactly where and when baseball was created because it evolved from earlier games, such as cricket and rounders, another English game played with a bat and ball. "There's no way of pinpointing where the game was first played," said Jeff Idelson, a spokesman for the Hall of Fame. "Baseball wasn't really born anywhere."

Still, Idelson said if the Pittsfield group's document is authentic, it would be "incredibly monumental." Pittsfield might be a sensible home for the sport. Some historians have documented "the Massachusetts game" as a precursor to modern baseball, where runners were thrown out if they were hit by a ball.

Bouton, whose decade-long career as a pitcher included stints with the New York Yankees (news) and Houston Astros (news), lives in nearby Egremont and is helping to restore Pittsfield's Wahconah Park, the former home of several minor league teams. He hopes the discovery helps bring attention to the project. "We thought this was a lucky stroke," said Bouton, whose 1970 book "Ball Four" offered a scandalous look behind the scenes of professional baseball. "I'm sure Pittsfield will live off this for a while."
For now, the document will be kept in a vault until city officials figure out how to properly display it. A copy will be hung at Wahconah Park, one of the nation's oldest ballparks.

Ruth vs. Bonds, Who is the Greatest?

2004-06-05T17:13:00.000-07:00
The Bambino; The Greatest of All-Time
by
Ray Flowers

http://www.athomeplate.com/theothergreatone.shtml

Who is the greatest player ever? Some say Ted Williams, but of course he was much more of a hitter than a player. Others say Willie Mays, and for all around excellence he seems to be a great choice. But of the modern day player 3 names are always mentioned: Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr.. Griffey has been too injured the past three years to really belong in this discussion, and while Arod is a tremendous ballplayer, his career is just too short at this point to be considered the best ever. So of all the current players we would say that Barry Bonds is the most likely choice for a discussion of the greatest player ever (see Laura Nist’s article on this topic: http://www.athomeplate.com/thegreatone.shtml). But before we anoint Mr. Bonds we would like to throw out the name of the greatest ballplayer who ever lived… George Herman “Babe” Ruth.

Barry LaMar Bonds, by fantasy standards, is one of the greatest player ever (though a strong case in this respect can also be made for Rickey Henderson). No one has ever combined power and speed like Bonds, i.e. the oft repeated fact that he is the only member of the 500 HR and 500 steal club (in fact no others have even entered the 400/400 club). Bonds has also won 8 Gold Gloves, an unprecedented 6 MVP’s, and set all-time single season records for HR’s (73), on-base average (.582) and slugging percentage (.863). his greatness is beyond question…the question is how does he compare to the Babe?

Babe Ruth revolutionized the game of baseball. During the dead-ball era where double digit HR’s were unheard of, out came the strapping young man from Baltimore to re-write the record books. His total of 714 HR’s was a record for 40 years until Hank Aaron finally broke it in 1974. We all know that its just a matter of time before Bonds eclipse’s Ruth’s 714 career HR’s (he currently sits at 659, one behind Mays for third all-time), but how do the accomplishments of each player stand in their own eras?

If one looks at the career of Bonds one sees that he has lead the majors in homers but twice: 46 (1993) and 73 (2001). In fact, Bonds has led the majors in the Triple Crown categories of average , HR, and RBI on just these 2 instances. The Babe? Well he led the majors in homers 11 times! He also led in the majors in the Triple Crown categories, ready for this… a total of 17 times! Now if that wasn’t impressive enough, wait until you read the charts below. First we will list the HR total for Ruth, followed by the next highest player and his total.

1919 Ruth 29 / 12 Cravath

1920 Ruth 54 / 19 Sisler

1921 Ruth 59 / 24 Meusel/K.Williams

1922 Ruth 35 / 42 Hornsby

1923 Ruth 41 / 29 K.Williams

1924 Ruth 46 / 27 Hauser

1926 Ruth 47 / 21 Hack Wilson

1927 Ruth 60 / 47 Gehrig

1928 Ruth 54 / 31 H.Wilson/Bottomley

1929 Ruth 46 / 43 Klein

1930 Ruth 49 / 56 H.Wilson

1931 Ruth 46 / 46 Gehrig

1932 Ruth 41 / 58 Foxx

*In 1922 Ruth was injured and only played 110 games.
* In 1925 Ruth was “injured” and played in only 98 games.

So in the following years Ruth more than DOUBLED his next closest pursuer: 1919, 1920, 1921, and 1926. That means that Bonds, in his own era, would have to effectively hit 100 homers a year to be comparatively as great as Ruth. In fact, in 2001 when Bonds hit his record 73, his next closest pursuer was Sammy Sosa with 64…meaning Bond would have had to hit 128 HR’s to double his closest challenger.

Want more proof about the prodigious nature of the Sultan of Swat’s HR records? Here is a table which list Ruth’s total followed by the highest TEAM total for the same season (of course not including the teams that Ruth played for).

1919 Ruth 29 / 42 Phil.
1920 Ruth 54 / 64 Phil.
1921 Ruth 59 / 88 Phil.

Yes that’s right, in 1920 Ruth hit more homers than any other American League team! Take a look, in 1919,1921 he wasn’t that far behind either. The average team hits about 175 homers in our era so lets see Bonds would have to hit…well you can do the math so I won’t even waste my time with that calculation.

How about a comparison of career stats in the traditional 5 categories used in fantasy baseball. These career totals are in the following number of at-bats, lest you think one has the advantage over the other:
Bonds 8725, Ruth 8399.

Avg. HR RBI Runs SB
Bonds .297 659 1742 1941 500
Ruth .342 714 2213 2174 123

A last comparison between the two, lets look at their career OBP and SLG marks, the very marks that make Bonds a legendary performer.

OBP / SLG
Bonds .433 / .602
Ruth .474 / .690

Still think Ruth isn’t the greatest player of all-time? Oh you could say Bonds was a much better fielder and an immeasurably better baserunner, but we have left out one major category…pitching. And we aren’t talking about the state of pitching in the different eras. Oh yeah that’s right didn’t the Babe pitch? Well actually, he did more than that (his stats from 1915-1918).

W L ERA WHIP
18 8 2.44 (2.78) 1.15
23 12 1.75 (2.75) 1.07
24 13 2.01 (2.58) 1.08
13 7 2.22 (2.69) 1.05
* Number in ( ) in the ERA column is the League average for ERA.
* He also pitched over 300 innings in 1916-1917.

For his career Ruth went 94-46, with 4 saves, an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 1.16 in 1221.1 innings (for a modern day comparison think Tim Hudson: 80-33, 3.26, 1.21 in 1052 innings). So in essence Ruth was Bonds AND Hudson in his career…think about that…he was an all-star performer pitching AND hitting.

We have no doubt that there will be some out there that don’t buy what we’re selling, and that’s alright.

However, we think that we have laid out ample proof that the Babe Ruth is not merely the penultimate figure in American sports history, he is also the greatest player ever to lace up a pair of spikes. Sure arguments can be offered for players such as Bonds an Arod, but have either of these players changed the game the way that Ruth did? Has anyone ever dominated the sport both on the mound AND in the batters box? Let us know when Barry Bonds turns in his bat for the pitchers mound and makes a couple of all-star teams. When he does get back to us and we’ll consider him. Til then, remember the man all the great ones should be compared to, George Herman “Babe” Ruth.